In brief

29 trillion in August.

74%.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    Federal Public DebtPublic DebtMacroBrazil's federal public debt stock, its composition by indexer and tenor, and the National Treasury's financing strategy set in the Annual Financing Plan (PAF).Open in the Market Map ↗ totaled R$ 9.29 trillion in August, according to the National Treasury.

    Measures the debt stock.

    Sources[01][02][03][04]

  2. Verified fact · material

    The Selic-linked share of the debt reached a record in August, at 52.74%.

    Shows greater sensitivity to rates.

    Sources[01][05]

  3. Verified fact

    According to the Treasury, the 12-month average cost rose to 12.59% a year and the liquidity cushion fell to R$ 1.208 trillion.

    Completes the cost and liquidity picture.

    Sources[01]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Estadão Conteúdo, foreign holdings of domestic securities debt rose to 9.91% in August.

    Indicates foreign demand.

    Sources[06]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The Treasury preference for floating-rate bonds reflects demand for protection amid the high Selic and election uncertainty.

An average cost above 12% reinforces pressure on the nominal balance.

Portfolio impact

01
Custo da dívida e curva de jurosnegative

A larger floating-rate share raises debt cost sensitivity to the Selic.

Gradual effect.

What would change the view: High Selic for longer.

rates35% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Treasury auctions after the election
  • Debt composition in September
  • Annual Borrowing Plan targets

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Foreign holdings were reported by a single chain.

Full sources

06
01
Ministério da FazendaDívida Pública Federal totaliza R$ 9,29 trilhões em agostoofficial source
02
CNN BrasilDívida pública federal vai a R$ 9,29 trilhões em agostoindependent newsroom
03
g1Dívida pública federal cresce em agosto e atinge R$ 9,29 trilhõesindependent newsroom
04
Correio BrazilienseDívida pública chega a R$ 9,29 tri em agosto, com custo de 12,59% ao anoindependent newsroom
05
Folha de S.PauloDívida pública total atinge R$ 9,29 tri em agosto, e parcela atrelada à Selic tem novo recordeindependent newsroom
06
UOL EconomiaParticipação de estrangeiros na DPMFi sobe para 9,91% em agosto, afirma Tesouroindependent newsroom
06