Brazil's federal public debt stock, its composition by indexer and tenor, and the National Treasury's financing strategy set in the Annual Financing Plan (PAF).
Last 90 days
The fiscal yardstick moved up a level: gross debt hit 82.5% of GDP in July — the highest since April 2021 — the same day the 2027 budget reached Congress with an estimated R$ 83.4 billion surplus (R$ 18.6 billion including outside-framework expenses), a R$ 1,741 minimum wage and payroll capped at 3.2%. Markets will check every promise against DBGG's monthly path.
Updated November 13, 2026 · 63 verified articles
Market transmission
Debt size and composition define bond supply by indexer, rollover cost and debt-service sensitivity to the Selic — direct drivers of the yield curve and the fiscal premium.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.The Senate floor approved on Nov 12 the main text of bill PLP 299/2026, which caps real spending growth at 2% from 2027 in containment years; the Executive projects a R$ 45.1 billion to R$ 56.1 billion improvement in the 2027 primary balance, and four amendments will be voted on Nov 17 before the bill goes to the lower house.
Bill PLP 299/2026, filed by senator Jaques Wagner, cuts the real spending growth limit from 2.5% to 2% from 2027, trims tax breaks and removes up to R$ 10.5 billion of diesel subsidy from the 2026 target; the government estimates a R$ 50 billion to R$ 60 billion impact in 2027.
Senate President Davi Alcolumbre said on November 10 that government-allied senators are due to present a complementary bill for fiscal adjustment with executive spending cuts and that Congress is committed to reviewing it, according to Agência Senado and CNN Brasil.
Decree 13,159 of November 9 extends for 30 days, to December 9, 2026, the federal tax relief on gasoline and ethanol, cutting R$ 0.89 per liter of gasoline at an estimated cost of R$ 2.76 billion, according to the Finance Ministry, Agência Brasil and Gazeta do Povo.
In a national address on November 8, Lula said the public debt trajectory and high interest rates worry him and pledged to create conditions to lower rates while preserving fiscal rules, without detailing measures, according to InfoMoney, Exame, Bloomberg Línea and Agência Brasil.
President Lula defended on November 5 fiscal and legal responsibility to attract investment, at the meeting of the critical minerals industrialization council, which set 27 priority minerals, according to Exame and Correio Braziliense.
The government sent Congress on November 4 Provisional Measure 1,399/2026 regulating the Selective Tax, known as the sin tax, with a transition regime until end-2027, according to Gazeta do Povo and Correio Braziliense.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan defended on November 3 a gradual fiscal adjustment that respects campaign pledges and said nothing he discusses with President Lula justifies market fear, according to CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense.
Senator Eduardo Braga of MDB-Amazonas will be general rapporteur of the 2027 budget bill, a choice made on November 3 after a leaders meeting with the Senate president, according to Agência Senado and Gazeta do Povo.
The National Treasury published on November 3 its Fiscal Risk Report, which projects general government gross debt at 83.7% of GDP at end-2026 and peaking at 89.7% in 2030, according to CNN Brasil, Gazeta do Povo and the Finance Ministry.
The central government posted a R$ 4.8 billion primary surplus in September 2026 but has a deficit of about R$ 90 billion from January to September, according to the National Treasury, in data released on October 29 and reported by Correio Braziliense.
Federal Public Debt rose 0.97% in September, from R$ 9.29 trillion to R$ 9.38 trillion, according to the Treasury monthly report released on October 29, as reported by Agência Brasil, Correio Braziliense and Gazeta do Povo.
The government will forgive debts of about 3.6 million individual microentrepreneurs registered in active debt up to October 13, 2026, under Complementary Law 238, and began notifying beneficiaries, according to Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil.
The Senate Independent Fiscal Institution estimated at about R$ 40 billion the impact of measures not in the 2026 and 2027 budgets and raised to 81.6% the probability of gross debt topping 90% of GDP by 2030, according to Agência Brasil, InfoMoney and CNN Brasil.
The Federal Audit Court calculated the 2027 CBS reference rate at 11.3%, above the economic team projection, and the Senate can still set the rate by resolution, according to Agência Senado, CNN Brasil and Times Brasil.
Minister Dario Durigan approved a Treasury guarantee for a new R$ 7 billion loan to Correios, published in the official gazette on October 28, at 114.84% of CDI over 15 years, according to Gazeta do Povo and Estado de Minas.
The federal government signed on October 27 a R$ 950 million credit operation with the IBS Management Committee to fund the setup and initial operation of the tax reform body, according to Agência Brasil and Money Times.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on October 27 that the government will propose adjustments to pursue the center of the fiscal target through a complementary bill that depends on Congress, according to CNN Brasil, Correio Braziliense and Agência Brasil.
Brazil's National Treasury announced on October 27 a new buyback of NTN-B bonds maturing in 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045, after already buying back more than R$ 14.8 billion on October 26, according to Agência Brasil and InfoMoney.
Minister Dario Durigan said on October 27 that the government should send Congress this week the provisional measure implementing the Selective Tax, charged from 2027, according to Agência Brasil, Correio Braziliense and InfoMoney.
Brazil's National Treasury canceled the October 29 fixed-rate bond auction and the October 27 inflation-linked auction and kept the LFT auction, saying it will keep monitoring market conditions, according to CNN Brasil and InfoMoney.
The government proposed forgiving federal debts of Simples Nacional companies in the events, bars and restaurants sectors through a bill still to be sent to Congress, expected in 2026, according to Correio Braziliense and Gazeta do Povo.
Federal tax revenue totaled about R$ 239 billion in September 2026, according to the Federal Revenue Service, and R$ 2.35 trillion from January to September, up 6.97% in real terms from a year earlier, according to Agência Brasil and Correio Braziliense.
Brazil's Supreme Court ruled on October 21, by 6 votes to 5, that the ISS municipal services tax is excluded from the PIS and Cofins tax base, in the Theme 118 case, according to the court and Correio Braziliense. How the ruling's effects apply over time is still undefined, and the government estimated losses of up to R$ 35.4 billion in its budget guidelines.
The Planning Ministry said on October 19 it plans to shift about R$ 20 billion in the 2027 budget to accommodate recently announced stimulus measures, without raising the spending cap or changing the primary balance target, according to Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil.
The government on October 19 began paying Bolsa Família with a 15.04% increase, and the minimum per family rose from R$ 600 to R$ 691, according to Correio Braziliense and Money Times.
The Senate approved on October 15, by 78 votes to 0, the bill that raises the annual revenue cap for individual microentrepreneurs from R$ 81,000 to R$ 110,000 in 2027 and R$ 140,000 in 2028, and forgives MEI debts owed to the federal government. The bill goes to presidential signature.
The federal government honored R$ 244.01 million in guaranteed state and municipal debts in September 2026, according to the National Treasury. For the year, the total reaches R$ 3.38 billion, according to the Treasury and Agência Brasil.
The Finance Ministry's October Prisma Fiscal survey shows the market median for the central government's 2026 primary deficit rose to R$ 53.05 billion from R$ 52.27 billion. The forecast for gross debt at end-2026 rose to 83.4% of GDP.
The government zeroed PIS/Pasep, Cofins and Cide-Combustíveis rates on gasoline for 30 days, raising the relief from R$ 0.63 to R$ 0.89 per liter. The package also gives an extra R$ 1.40 per liter to imported diesel and keeps the ethanol benefit. The estimated cost is R$ 5.2 billion over 30 days.
Provisional Measure 1,395/2026, published in the official gazette on October 9, opens an extraordinary credit of R$ 7.52 billion for fuel production and import subsidies. R$ 6.17 billion goes to the road diesel subsidy and R$ 1.35 billion to the subsidy under MP 1,358/2026.
The consolidated public sector, which includes the federal government, states, municipalities and state companies, posted a R$ 10 billion primary deficit in August, according to central bank data released on September 30. Over 12 months, the deficit totals R$ 82.1 billion, or 0.62% of GDP. Nominal interest on the debt reached R$ 105.9 billion in the month. According to Agência Brasil, general government gross debt rose to 82.9% of GDP.
The Central Government, which includes the Treasury, Social Security and the central bank, posted a R$ 13.6 billion primary deficit in August, according to the National Treasury Result released on September 29. In August 2025, the deficit had been R$ 15.5 billion. From January to August, the negative balance totals R$ 94.9 billion, against R$ 85.9 billion in the same period of 2025.
Federal Public Debt totaled R$ 9.29 trillion in August, up 0.04% from July, according to the National Treasury Monthly Report released on September 28. The share of Selic-linked bonds reached 52.74%, the highest in the series started in 2000, while fixed-rate bonds fell to 20.31% and inflation-linked bonds stood at 23.22%. The 12-month average cost of the debt rose to 12.59% a year, and the liquidity cushion fell to R$ 1.208 trillion, equivalent to 7.18 months of maturities.
The Bolsa Família increase, the third phase of Desenrola and the online betting ban, announced in the week before the first round, will require an adjustment of up to R$ 42.3 billion in the 2027 Budget, according to figures presented by the economic team and compiled by the press. The Bolsa Família increase, with the floor rising from R$ 600 to R$ 691, costs R$ 22 billion; Desenrola 3.0, R$ 15 billion; and the end of online betting removes R$ 5.3 billion in expected revenue. The 2027 Budget bill is already in Congress and will be executed by the president-elect.
President Lula signed on September 25 a provisional measure creating the third phase of the Desenrola program, in which the federal government may buy at auction portfolios of debts overdue for two to four and a half years, of up to R$ 10,000 each, and pass the discount on to debtors. Up to R$ 150 billion in debt may be eligible, with a minimum 90% discount; the government set aside R$ 15 billion for the program, according to Planning Minister Bruno Moretti. Caixa and Banco do Brasil may execute the operations, and the timeline calls for a creditor call in November and discounts starting in February 2027.
Tesouro Direto sales totaled R$ 15 billion in August, a record for the series, according to the National Treasury. Redemptions and maturities, however, reached R$ 17.22 billion, driven by the maturity of Tesouro IPCA+ 2026, of R$ 11.3 billion, and net flows were negative by R$ 2.21 billion. Selic-linked bonds accounted for 46.9% of sales, and the program stock reached R$ 272 billion.
The fourth bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, released on September 24, cut the total 2026 spending freeze from R$ 17.9 billion to R$ 16.1 billion. The room came from downward revisions to mandatory spending, with R$ 11.5 billion less in social security benefits, and allowed the government to accommodate the 15% Bolsa Família increase, which costs R$ 5.8 billion. According to the Finance Ministry, the freeze is now split between R$ 2.4 billion of spending blocks and R$ 13.6 billion of contingency, and includes R$ 5 billion set aside for the diesel subsidy.
The national justice inspector, Justice Benedito Gonçalves, ordered the cancellation of 16 court-ordered payments to the sugar and ethanol sector and the return of about R$ 4.7 billion, deposited and blocked since 2023, to the National Treasury, with earnings. According to Gazeta do Povo, the payment orders were issued before the execution phase became final, and the ruling reinstates decisions of the 6th Federal Civil Court of the Federal District that had been suspended by the TRF1 presidency. Compliance is due within five days and the case goes to the CNJ plenary; according to Valor, the payment orders belong to mills on a list linked to Daniel Vorcaro.
Justice Gilmar Mendes filed on September 22 a motion for the Supreme Court Second Panel to send to the full bench the dispute over compensation to the sugar and ethanol sector for price controls by the defunct Sugar and Alcohol Institute; the motion will be examined in a virtual session from September 25 to October 2. The goal is to standardize the requirement of individual expert proof of loss, set in a 2020 general repercussion ruling, across cases such as those of the Alcídia, Raízen and Jalles Machado mills. The impact is estimated at R$ 103.4 billion in the 2026 Budget Guidelines Law, according to Money Times, and up to R$ 145 billion, according to Gazeta do Povo. The move follows messages from Daniel Vorcaro, whose Banco Master bought Alcídia court-ordered payments, criticizing the justice stance against the payments.
The Macrofiscal Bulletin of the Economic Policy Secretariat, released on September 22, cut the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and 2027 from 2.5% to 2.3%. The revision is concentrated in services (from 2.4% to 1.8%) and industry (from 2.1% to 1.7%), while agriculture rises from 1.8% to 2.8%. The 2026 IPCA forecast fell from 5.1% to 4.9% and 2027 rose from 3.6% to 3.8%. The SPE cites the weak carry-over from the first half, the lagged transmission of monetary policy and the record share of household income committed to debt service.
The Federal Revenue reported on September 22 that August tax revenue reached R$ 235.5 billion, a record for the month, up 8.25% in real terms from August 2025. From January to August the total reaches R$ 2.11 trillion, up 7.12% in real terms. Revenue from oil and gas extraction reached R$ 93.3 billion in the year, against R$ 16.3 billion in 2025, and withholding tax on capital income rose 33.21%, helped by the taxation of dividends. The Revenue cut its estimate of 2026 dividend tax collection from R$ 29 billion to R$ 10.5 billion.
Planning and Budget Minister Bruno Moretti said on September 21 that the government found R$ 19.6 billion of fiscal room in the 2026 Budget, the result of downward revisions to mandatory spending, and that part of the room funds the Bolsa Família increase. According to coverage of the interview, the largest cut came from social security, and the program 15.04% increase costs R$ 5.8 billion in 2026 and R$ 22.7 billion in 2027. Moretti said the measure respects fiscal rules.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on September 18 that the government is studying a program in which the National Treasury buys old household debts, acquired at auction with steep discounts, to clear debtors' names and banks' balance sheets. The proposal will be presented to President Lula; according to Gazeta do Povo, the plan would target debts older than five years, with support from Emgea, from early 2027 and without compromising the fiscal target.
The Senate Independent Fiscal Institution projects a primary deficit of R$ 86.1 billion in 2027, a gap of R$ 104.8 billion versus the R$ 18.6 billion surplus in the budget bill. Meeting the target would require freezing at least R$ 35.7 billion. The IFI forecasts 1.8% GDP growth and 4.0% IPCA in 2027, against 2.5% and 3.6% from the government, and gross debt of 82.5% of GDP.
A decree signed on September 17 raises the minimum Bolsa Família benefit from R$ 600 to R$ 691 from October, restoring INPC inflation since March 2023. The cost is R$ 5.8 billion in 2026 and about R$ 22 billion in 2027, without raising the spending cap, according to the government. The Ibovespa lost as much as 3,600 points and the dollar rose before the market recovered; Justice André Mendonça, at the electoral court, rejected a suit against the increase. Update: on September 18 Gilmar Mendes validated the decree at the AGU's request, and Durigan said the offset will come from expense reallocations, including pensions, detailed on September 24.
The National Treasury honoured R$ 79.95 million in August in Union-guaranteed debts of states and municipalities that failed to pay creditors, lifting the 2026 total to R$ 3.13 billion; since 2016 the Union has paid R$ 89.66 billion in guarantees and recovered R$ 6.06 billion through counter-guarantees, with R$ 79.85 billion relating to states in the Fiscal Recovery Regime, which suspends counter-guarantee execution, R$ 1.90 billion linked to ICMS loss compensation and R$ 522.39 million blocked by court rulings.
The September Prisma Fiscal, released on September 15 by the Finance Ministry, shows the median projection for the Central Government primary deficit in 2026 at R$ 52.271 billion, from R$ 59.145 billion in August, and for 2027 at R$ 45.350 billion, from R$ 55.000 billion; expected net revenue rose to R$ 2.581 trillion in 2026 and R$ 2.750 trillion in 2027. Projected gross debt, however, rose to 83.20% of GDP in 2026 (83.00% in August) and 87.00% in 2027 (86.77%), with the 14% Selic lifting interest expense despite the better primary balance.
A CNI study on infrastructure investment financing shows Brazil invested R$ 266.8 billion in the sector in 2024, 2.27% of GDP, and would need about R$ 550 billion a year, 4.65% of GDP, for at least two decades to clear its bottlenecks; the private sector accounted for R$ 188.1 billion (70.5%) and the public sector for R$ 78.6 billion, with R$ 8.4 billion from multilaterals. The confederation proposes a new financing regime combining macro stability, deeper capital markets, private credit and project finance, a project pipeline, legal certainty and regulatory predictability.
The National Monetary Council raised the global limit for credit operations by states, the Federal District and municipalities in 2026 from R$ 26.625 billion to R$ 28.625 billion. The sub-limit with a federal guarantee rose from R$ 7 billion to R$ 8.5 billion and the one without a guarantee from R$ 6 billion to R$ 6.5 billion, drawing on R$ 7.87 billion of unused room.
Law 15,501, dated September 9 and announced September 10, allows BNDES to create subsidiaries to widen its operations, subject to the Fiscal Responsibility Law; the president vetoed ten of the bill's thirteen provisions, including the creation of the Export Credit Fund, which the bank would run, and changes to risk-sharing rules among guarantee funds, arguing the fund's goals are already met by existing policies and its creation breaches the 2026 budget guidelines law. The text came from bill 5,961/2025 by then-senator Fernando Farias.
Correios formally requested a National Treasury guarantee for a new R$ 7 billion loan from private banks, the second in under a year after the R$ 12 billion contracted in December 2025 with Itaú, Bradesco, Santander, Banco do Brasil and Caixa; Poder360 details Banco ABC, Citibank, Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan as lenders, a cost of 114.26% of CDI, 15 years with 3 of grace and disbursement expected September 15, while the state company says terms are still under negotiation. The company lost R$ 5.55 billion in the first half.
With Brent above US$ 100, Lula signed on September 9 a decree cutting PIS/Pasep and Cofins on gasoline by R$ 0.63 a litre and zeroing hydrous ethanol rates, plus provisional measure 1,389 opening R$ 6.6 billion in extraordinary credit to subsidise diesel by R$ 1 a litre; the cost is R$ 7 billion a month. Petrobras dropped its R$ 0.44 discount and raised gasoline by R$ 0.19 from September 10, with no effect at the pump.
The Finance Ministry authorized on September 4 a US$ 1 billion credit line from the Inter-American Development Bank for Eco Invest Brasil, a program to mobilize private capital for the ecological transition with currency protection, per Agência Brasil and Correio Braziliense. The National Treasury page describes the program as an instrument to promote foreign investment in green projects.
The Senate approved on September 3 bill PL 3,540/2026, which cuts local reinsurers' CSLL from 15% to 9% from 2027 and removes the 30% cap on offsetting tax losses, per Agência Senado and Money Times. The text goes to presidential signature; the relief was already exempted from 2026 fiscal rules by PLP 74.
The Senate unanimously approved on September 3 bill PLP 74/2026, which exempts from 2026 fiscal restrictions tax benefits and spending such as the Redata data-center regime, free-trade zones, capital goods, extended paternity leave and the reinsurers' tax relief, per Agência Senado, Agência Câmara and Correio Braziliense. The text, reported by Camilo Santana, goes to presidential signature.
The share of financial institutions naming fiscal risk as the biggest threat to system stability rose from 27% in May to 34% in August, per the Central Bank's Financial Stability Survey released on September 3 and covered by CNN Brasil and Poder360. The survey heard 117 institutions between July 2 and 28; default risk ranks second, per Poder360.
The Camex executive committee published in the September 3 Official Gazette a 60-day extension of the 12% export tax on crude oil, effective September 8, per Poder360 and CNN Brasil. The extension came after the TRF1 appeals court overturned on August 31 the injunction that had suspended the levy.
September 4 update: the Chamber and the Senate approved MP 1357/26 on September 3, permanently zeroing the 20% import tax on international purchases up to US$ 50, and the text goes to presidential sanction, per Correio Braziliense, g1, Agência Brasil and Money Times. In the US$ 50 to US$ 3,000 band the rate falls from 60% to 30%, and rare-disease medicines become exempt.
The Senate approved on September 1 the Special Tax Regime for Data Centers (Redata), which goes to presidential sanction, per Agência Brasil, Exame and Money Times. Conditions include reserving at least 10% of capacity for the Brazilian market and using renewable energy. Estimated forgone revenue is R$ 5.2 billion in 2026 and about R$ 1 billion a year in 2027 and 2028.
Appeals judge Roberto Carvalho Veloso of the TRF1 lifted the injunction suspending the 12% oil export tax for Abep members, granting the AGU appeal, per Gazeta do Povo and Poder360. The levy is back in force — five days after the first-instance injunction that opened the clash with Camex.
General government gross debt (DBGG) reached 82.5% of GDP in July, up from 81.9% in June, per Central Bank fiscal statistics released August 31 — the highest since April 2021, at the pandemic borrowing peak. The data lands the same day as the 2027 budget filing, which promises surpluses to stabilize the path.
On the eve of the constitutional filing deadline, full coverage previews Brazil's 2027 budget: the government will seek leeway to freeze more funds and pursue the fiscal target's center, per Folha and Gazeta do Povo, and the bill will include a R$ 6 billion injection into the postal service, per g1 and Folha. 'Effective' surplus projections diverge between R$ 18-20 billion and about R$ 8 billion.
Justice André Mendonça requested a 'destaque' and halted the Supreme Court trial on taxing profits of Vale's foreign subsidiaries, moving the case from the virtual to the physical plenary — where it restarts from scratch. The majority already formed (6-4 per InfoMoney) is voided. The Federal Revenue projects a R$ 22 billion impact, per InfoMoney.
Brasília's 17th Federal Court granted an injunction on August 27 suspending the 12% oil export tax for Abep member companies. The same day, Gecex-Camex extended the levy for another 60 days starting September 8. The tax collected R$ 7.98 billion from January through July.
The central government posted a primary surplus of R$ 10.78 billion in July, per the National Treasury. Federal tax collection hit R$ 289.3 billion in the month, a July record, up 8.97% in real terms — boosted, per Correio Braziliense, by R$ 3.16 billion from the oil export tax.
Federal public debt reached R$9.28 trillion in July, up 0.22% from June, per the Treasury's monthly report recorded by CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. In a same-day release, the Treasury revised the Annual Financing Plan, raising the expected share of Selic-linked bonds from 46%-50% to 49%-53% of the stock, citing stronger demand for floaters with the rate at 14% a year.