Macro & EconomiesMacro

Yield Curve

Brazil's market interest rates across maturities, reflected in government bonds, Tesouro Direto and DI futures.

26articles

30material mentions

12connections

Last 90 days

What sources are saying

Tesouro Direto fixed-rate and inflation-linked rates jumped on August 14, with the 2029 fixed-rate bond above 14.4% per year, and the Tesouro IPCA+ 2026 maturity returns about R$258 billion to investors on August 17.

Updated September 24, 2026 · 20 verified articles

Market transmission

Why it matters

Rates by maturity set the cost of capital, mark-to-market bond prices, the perceived fiscal premium and the relative appeal of fixed income versus risk assets.

Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.

Articles in chronological order

MACROGlobal

The 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5%, the highest since 2007, and the dollar climbs 1.3% to R$ 5.17

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% on September 23, reaching 5.13% according to InfoMoney, citing Bloomberg, the highest since 2007; the 5-year note crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 after a weak US$ 70 billion auction. The rise came with stronger-than-expected activity data, higher oil and markets pricing three to four Fed hikes over 12 months, after the quarter-point increase the previous week. In Brazil, the dollar rose 1.3% to R$ 5.17, the largest gain in about three months, and the Ibovespa fell 0.86%.

4 sourcesSep 23, 2026

MACROBrazil

STF votes 4 to 3 to judge Moraes and Mendonça separately, Dino asks for more time and the merits go undecided

At the September 15 extraordinary session, the STF plenary rejected by 4 votes to 3 the point of order raised by Gilmar Mendes to judge together the request to investigate Alexandre de Moraes and the request against André Mendonça: Edson Fachin, Mendonça, Luiz Fux and Cármen Lúcia voted to keep the cases separate, and Gilmar, Cristiano Zanin and Moraes for joint analysis; Flávio Dino asked for more time to review and the session was suspended without a vote on the merits of Petition 16,662. Dias Toffoli declared himself suspect and Nunes Marques impeded; Moraes accused Mendonça of having demanded that the Federal Police include his name in the Daniel Vorcaro plea deal, which Mendonça denied, and Cármen Lúcia said the court had caused civic unease. The Mendonça case stays scheduled for September 23.

6 sourcesSep 15, 2026

MACROBrazil

Prisma Fiscal: market trims the projected 2026 primary deficit to R$ 52.3 billion but lifts gross debt to 83.2% of GDP

The September Prisma Fiscal, released on September 15 by the Finance Ministry, shows the median projection for the Central Government primary deficit in 2026 at R$ 52.271 billion, from R$ 59.145 billion in August, and for 2027 at R$ 45.350 billion, from R$ 55.000 billion; expected net revenue rose to R$ 2.581 trillion in 2026 and R$ 2.750 trillion in 2027. Projected gross debt, however, rose to 83.20% of GDP in 2026 (83.00% in August) and 87.00% in 2027 (86.77%), with the 14% Selic lifting interest expense despite the better primary balance.

2 sourcesSep 15, 2026

MACROGlobal

10-year Treasury tops 5% for the first time since 2023 and Wall Street falls on the eve of the Fed

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose above 5% on September 14, to about 5.01%, for the first time since October 2023, when it spent a single day above the mark, driven by hotter-than-expected August inflation, oil near US$ 110 and government and corporate financing needs; New York stocks closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.48%, the Dow 0.29% and the Nasdaq 0.56%, and the market moved to price about a 90% chance of a Fed hike on September 16, the first in three years.

3 sourcesSep 14, 2026

MACROBrazil

Focus: median 2026 IPCA forecast falls to 4.90%, first time below 5%, and the market expects Selic at 13.75% this week

The September 14 Focus survey put the median forecast for 2026 IPCA at 4.90%, from 5.00% the previous week and 5.02% four weeks earlier, the first reading below 5% this year, after the 0.32% deflation in August; the 2027 forecast rose to 4.30%. The market expects a 0.25 point Selic cut to 13.75% at the September 15-16 Copom meeting and sees the rate at 13.75% at end-2026; the median 2026 GDP forecast fell to 1.89% and 2027 to 1.45%, with the dollar projected at R$ 5.20 for the 13th week.

2 sourcesSep 14, 2026

MACROBrazil

Fachin takes over the Moraes-Vorcaro case after Mendonça returns the file and pulls the Master and INSS cases to the Supreme Court presidency

Supreme Court Chief Justice Edson Fachin took over on the night of September 12 as rapporteur of petition 16,662, on the relationship between Alexandre de Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, after André Mendonça returned the file citing the judiciary statute and the court's rules, and ordered petitions 15,041 (Banco Master) and 15,556 (INSS) sent to the presidency, which halts individual rulings in those cases; he gave the Federal Police 24 hours to report on the custody of the material from Vorcaro's phone, denied Moraes's request to merge the trials and kept the September 15 session on Moraes and the September 23 session on Mendonça, ahead of the first round. September 13 and 14 update: the Federal Police said it can send identical copies of Vorcaro's phone, Zanin and Gilmar Mendes ordered the transfer, Mendonça warned of risks to the investigations and Fachin referred to the Prosecutor-General Moraes's request to open the petition listing Vorcaro's payments.

16 sourcesSep 12, 2026

MACROBrazil

Supreme Court releases Master case files after Fachin orders Mendonça to lift secrecy within 24h; R$ 108 million contract with Barci de Moraes law firm surfaces

The Supreme Court released the Master case files on September 11 after Chief Justice Edson Fachin gave rapporteur André Mendonça 24 hours to lift secrecy, preserving only ongoing inquiries: among them, the Federal Police report on Daniel Vorcaro's phone and the January 2024 contract between Banco Master and the Barci de Moraes law firm, worth R$ 108 million net in 36 instalments of R$ 3 million (R$ 131.3 million gross), plus an unsigned Viking Participações draft. Mendonça denied fellow justices access to the full phone data, drawing criticism from Moraes and Zanin, and the full court holds an extraordinary session on September 15; DI futures closed flat as investors bought protection.

6 sourcesSep 11, 2026

MACROGlobal

US CPI rises 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, with core above forecasts, and markets see a Fed hike on 9/16 as near-certain

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, in line with forecasts, but core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% projected, with energy +2.1% and gasoline up as oil holds above US$ 100; markets now price a Fed hike at the September 16 meeting as near-certain, with the CME tool at 86.5% and other readings near 90%. Wall Street rose on September 11 on oil relief but ended the week lower.

4 sourcesSep 11, 2026

MACROBrazil

IPCA falls 0.32% in August, the deepest deflation in four years, taking 12-month inflation to 4.22%, below forecasts

The IPCA fell 0.32% in August, the deepest monthly deflation in four years, driven by the Itaipu bonus on power bills (electricity -7.63%) and declines in food and transport, per IBGE; the median forecast was -0.29%. Twelve-month inflation eased from 4.44% to 4.22%, below the 4.27% projected, and Treasury bond yields fell up to 15 basis points; BofA now projects a 13.25% Selic at year-end, with 0.25-point cuts at every remaining meeting.

7 sourcesSep 11, 2026

MACROGlobal

ECB raises rates by 25 basis points in a unanimous decision on Middle East inflation pressures

The European Central Bank raised its three rates by 25 basis points on September 10, effective September 16, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, refinancing to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, to curb inflation pressures renewed by the Middle East conflict; Christine Lagarde said the decision was unanimous and easy, and the ECB projects 3.0% inflation in 2026, returning to the 2% target only at the end of 2027. European stocks fell, with the Stoxx 600 at its lowest since July 8.

3 sourcesSep 10, 2026

MACROGlobal

US adds 162,000 jobs in August, Wall Street falls on rate-hike bets and Trump threatens to cut trade

The US jobs report showed on September 4 that 162,000 jobs were added in August, against a forecast of about 55,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, per Bloomberg Línea, Poder360 and Money Times. The S&P 500 fell 0.38% and the Dow Jones 0.51% as bets on a Fed rate hike strengthened, per InfoMoney and CNN Brasil; Trump wrote he would stop doing business with deficit countries if the Fed does not cut rates, per InfoMoney and Bloomberg Línea.

11 sourcesSep 04, 2026

MACROBrazil

Senate passes exceptions to fiscal rules for 2026 incentives and spending; bill goes to president

The Senate unanimously approved on September 3 bill PLP 74/2026, which exempts from 2026 fiscal restrictions tax benefits and spending such as the Redata data-center regime, free-trade zones, capital goods, extended paternity leave and the reinsurers' tax relief, per Agência Senado, Agência Câmara and Correio Braziliense. The text, reported by Camilo Santana, goes to presidential signature.

3 sourcesSep 03, 2026

MACROGlobal

Fed's Waller signals support for holding rates if inflation keeps easing, and gold jumps nearly 3%

Fed governor Christopher Waller said on September 3 he would support holding rates steady if inflation keeps easing, per CNN Brasil and InfoMoney. The remark pushed down the dollar and Treasury yields and sent gold up 2.84%, per CNN Brasil, nearly 3% per InfoMoney. The next day the strong payroll reversed part of the move, a fact NEXO published on September 5.

3 sourcesSep 03, 2026

MACROBrazil

Fiscal risk is the top fear of 34% of financial institutions in the central bank's stability survey

The share of financial institutions naming fiscal risk as the biggest threat to system stability rose from 27% in May to 34% in August, per the Central Bank's Financial Stability Survey released on September 3 and covered by CNN Brasil and Poder360. The survey heard 117 institutions between July 2 and 28; default risk ranks second, per Poder360.

2 sourcesSep 03, 2026

MACROBrazil

Retail investors lift holdings to R$ 9.14 trillion, with fixed income driving 65% of the gain

Retail investors' holdings reached R$ 9.14 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 6.4% in the year, with fixed income accounting for 65% of the growth, per Anbima data reported by InfoMoney and Seu Dinheiro. Government bonds rose 32.9% to R$ 349.8 billion, LCIs 13.7% and CDBs 8.5%; equity funds fell 0.1%.

2 sourcesSep 03, 2026

MACROBrazil

GDP grows 0.5% in Q2 as household consumption falls

Brazil's GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026 versus the first, seasonally adjusted, per IBGE — above the 0.4% consensus cited by InfoMoney. Household consumption fell 0.4% in the period. Future rates dropped after the release as markets firmed Selic-cut bets.

6 sourcesSep 02, 2026

MACROBrazil

Gross debt climbs to 82.5% of GDP, highest since April 2021

General government gross debt (DBGG) reached 82.5% of GDP in July, up from 81.9% in June, per Central Bank fiscal statistics released August 31 — the highest since April 2021, at the pandemic borrowing peak. The data lands the same day as the 2027 budget filing, which promises surpluses to stabilize the path.

4 sourcesSep 01, 2026

MACROBrazil

Brazil 2027 budget to freeze funds in pursuit of the fiscal target center

On the eve of the constitutional filing deadline, full coverage previews Brazil's 2027 budget: the government will seek leeway to freeze more funds and pursue the fiscal target's center, per Folha and Gazeta do Povo, and the bill will include a R$ 6 billion injection into the postal service, per g1 and Folha. 'Effective' surplus projections diverge between R$ 18-20 billion and about R$ 8 billion.

15 sourcesAug 30, 2026

MACROGlobal

Warsh hardens tone at Jackson Hole, says Fed has more work to do

In the closing speech of the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28, Fed chair Kevin Warsh said US inflation is not slowing and the central bank has more work to do if it stays above target, per CNN Brasil and O Globo. In Brazil, the dollar rose 0.66% that day to R$ 5.196.

6 sourcesAug 30, 2026

MACROBrazil

Brazil adds 58,600 formal jobs in July, weakest for the month since 2020

July's Caged payroll report, released August 28, showed a net 58,568 formal jobs created — the worst July since 2020 and well below the market consensus of about 114,000. Per Money Times, short-term rates fell after the data as markets firmed bets on Selic cuts.

6 sourcesAug 29, 2026

MACROBrazil

Central government posts R$ 10.78 billion July surplus on record tax intake

The central government posted a primary surplus of R$ 10.78 billion in July, per the National Treasury. Federal tax collection hit R$ 289.3 billion in the month, a July record, up 8.97% in real terms — boosted, per Correio Braziliense, by R$ 3.16 billion from the oil export tax.

4 sourcesAug 28, 2026

MACROBrazil

Public debt reaches R$9.28 trillion as Treasury widens room for Selic-linked bonds

Federal public debt reached R$9.28 trillion in July, up 0.22% from June, per the Treasury's monthly report recorded by CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. In a same-day release, the Treasury revised the Annual Financing Plan, raising the expected share of Selic-linked bonds from 46%-50% to 49%-53% of the stock, citing stronger demand for floaters with the rate at 14% a year.

4 sourcesAug 26, 2026

JUROSGlobal

FOMC minutes show a 9-3 split, with dissenters favoring a rate hike

The minutes of the FOMC's July meeting, released on August 20, recorded a 9-3 decision. The three dissenters — Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan — favored a 0.25 percentage point hike to contain inflation, the opposite direction from early headlines that suggested a cut.

3 sourcesAug 20, 2026

JUROSGlobal

US Treasury doubles long-bond buybacks and 30-year yields retreat

The US Treasury doubled the size of its bond buyback operations in the 10-to-20 and 20-to-30-year segments to US$4 billion per operation, on a schedule running September 9 to November 4. Secretary Scott Bessent said operations may exceed that amount. The 30-year Treasury yield fell over the week to near 5.2%.

2 sourcesAug 20, 2026

JUROSBrazil

Tesouro Direto rates jump in a stressed fixed-income session

Rates on Tesouro Direto fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds rose sharply on August 14, with the 2029 fixed-rate bond closing above 14.4% per year. Coverage links the move to domestic risk aversion, with the fiscal and electoral picture in focus.

3 sourcesAug 14, 2026

RENDA FIXABrazil

Tesouro IPCA+ 2026 maturity returns about R$258 billion on Monday

Tesouro IPCA+ 2026 matures with payment scheduled for August 17, returning about R$258 billion to NTN-B holders. Most of it sits with institutional investors; the retail Tesouro Direto share is around R$13 billion.

2 sourcesAug 14, 2026

Map connections

What sources are saying

Why it matters

Articles in chronological order

The 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5%, the highest since 2007, and the dollar climbs 1.3% to R$ 5.17

STF votes 4 to 3 to judge Moraes and Mendonça separately, Dino asks for more time and the merits go undecided

Prisma Fiscal: market trims the projected 2026 primary deficit to R$ 52.3 billion but lifts gross debt to 83.2% of GDP

10-year Treasury tops 5% for the first time since 2023 and Wall Street falls on the eve of the Fed

Focus: median 2026 IPCA forecast falls to 4.90%, first time below 5%, and the market expects Selic at 13.75% this week

Fachin takes over the Moraes-Vorcaro case after Mendonça returns the file and pulls the Master and INSS cases to the Supreme Court presidency

Supreme Court releases Master case files after Fachin orders Mendonça to lift secrecy within 24h; R$ 108 million contract with Barci de Moraes law firm surfaces

US CPI rises 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, with core above forecasts, and markets see a Fed hike on 9/16 as near-certain

IPCA falls 0.32% in August, the deepest deflation in four years, taking 12-month inflation to 4.22%, below forecasts

ECB raises rates by 25 basis points in a unanimous decision on Middle East inflation pressures

US adds 162,000 jobs in August, Wall Street falls on rate-hike bets and Trump threatens to cut trade

Senate passes exceptions to fiscal rules for 2026 incentives and spending; bill goes to president

Fed's Waller signals support for holding rates if inflation keeps easing, and gold jumps nearly 3%

Fiscal risk is the top fear of 34% of financial institutions in the central bank's stability survey

Retail investors lift holdings to R$ 9.14 trillion, with fixed income driving 65% of the gain

GDP grows 0.5% in Q2 as household consumption falls

Gross debt climbs to 82.5% of GDP, highest since April 2021

Brazil 2027 budget to freeze funds in pursuit of the fiscal target center

Warsh hardens tone at Jackson Hole, says Fed has more work to do

Brazil adds 58,600 formal jobs in July, weakest for the month since 2020

Central government posts R$ 10.78 billion July surplus on record tax intake

Public debt reaches R$9.28 trillion as Treasury widens room for Selic-linked bonds

FOMC minutes show a 9-3 split, with dissenters favoring a rate hike

US Treasury doubles long-bond buybacks and 30-year yields retreat

Tesouro Direto rates jump in a stressed fixed-income session

Tesouro IPCA+ 2026 maturity returns about R$258 billion on Monday