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Last 90 days
A week of reversals in oil: the TRF1 lifted the injunction and the 12% export tax is back for Abep members; Petrobras passed the Gulf shock to jet fuel (+13.9%); the US and Iran resumed attacks and Brent returned to US$ 90; and the White House detailed the Venezuela deal — Nabep 35% US-government-owned, 17 fields and 20% of output at cost.
Updated November 07, 2026 · 46 verified articles
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Oil affects producers, fuel costs, inflation, currencies and yield curves through distinct channels.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.Gecex extended the 12% tax on crude oil exports through December 31, 2026, in a resolution published in the Official Gazette on November 6, according to Correio Braziliense and InfoMoney.
Prio posted net income of US$ 516.6 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 707% in a year, with record average output of 191,600 barrels per day, according to Money Times and Investidor10.
Brazil oil and gas output reached 6.12 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in September, a new record, with 4.711 million barrels of oil per day, according to ANP and InfoMoney.
Seven core OPEC+ members kept oil output targets for December at an online meeting on November 1, and a ministerial meeting on November 29 will set 2027 quotas, according to CNN Brasil and InfoMoney.
Petrobras confirmed the third oil discovery at the Morpho well, block FZA-M-59, off Amapá in the Equatorial Margin, according to Seu Dinheiro, Correio Braziliense and Agência Senado; volume and commercial viability were not disclosed.
Petrobras produced 3.51 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter of 2026, a record, up 5.3% from the second quarter and about 12% in a year, according to Exame and Bloomberg Línea.
Brazil overtook Saudi Arabia to become China's second-largest crude supplier in the first nine months of 2026, with 44.29 million tonnes versus 43.12 million, behind Russia, according to Chinese customs data reported by CNN Brasil and Poder360.
December Brent crude closed up 3.72% on October 16 at US$ 109.86 a barrel, gaining 4.9% on the week. WTI rose 2.61% to US$ 99.02, according to CNN Brasil and Money Times.
December Brent crude closed up 1.84% at US$ 106.65 a barrel on October 12, and November WTI rose 2.06% to US$ 93.74. Sources attribute the rise to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the lack of a ceasefire in the Ukraine war.
A missile hit King Khalid airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on October 10, killing at least 12. The airport halted operations and flights were diverted. The attack is attributed to Yemen's Houthis, and the Saudi coalition promised a response.
US President Donald Trump announced on October 9 a deal with Vladimir Putin for Russian diesel supply. According to Trump, there will be more than 300,000 tonnes right away, 500,000 in November and 1 million after that. Terms and mechanisms were not detailed.
The ANP's 4th Permanent Production-Sharing Offer round, held on October 7, awarded 7 of the 13 pre-salt areas offered and raised R$ 530 million in signing bonuses. The average premium on profit oil was 108.38%. Prio, Petrobras, Equinor, CNOOC and Galp were among the winners; six areas received no bids.
Petrobras announced on October 2 a second oil discovery at the Morpho well, in block FZA-M-59, in ultra-deep waters about 175 km off the coast of Amapá, on the Equatorial Margin. According to CEO Magda Chambriard, the well showed oil at two depths. The volume has not yet been proven, and the material is going to laboratory analysis, according to Agência Brasil.
G7 countries announced on October 2 the release of up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves to curb prices, according to CNN Brasil and O Globo. According to CNN Brasil, the release takes place over four months, with priority to diesel in the first 20 days. Oil closed lower on the day, according to CNN Brasil and Estadão Conteúdo.
Brazil oil production reached 4.615 million barrels per day in August, up 2.6% from July and a third consecutive monthly record, according to ANP data released on October 1. Including natural gas, total output was 6.002 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. According to ANP, the pre-salt accounted for 82.6% of the total, and oil output rose 18.4% from August 2025.
US President Donald Trump said on September 26 that he rejected Iran proposal to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The plan, presented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York, included a seven-day ceasefire, an end to the US naval blockade, suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil and the release of frozen assets. Trump said Iran wants a deal but that one would be unacceptable, and said the US has total control of the strait.
Petrobras signed on September 22, with disclosure on the 23rd, a memorandum of understanding with Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH), Mozambique state company, for joint work in studies, evaluation, development and commercialization of oil and gas projects, plus exchange of data, technology and technical experience. The agreement is initially valid for two years, renewable, and does not specify research or production areas. Mozambique has large liquefied natural gas reserves explored by TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Eni and others, and the move expands Petrobras presence in Africa, where it already operates in Ivory Coast, Namibia, São Tomé and Príncipe and South Africa.
Anac data released on September 22 show an average fare of R$ 776.87 per leg in August, up 14.5% in real terms from August 2025 and 10.4% from August 2024, according to CNN Brasil (Correio Braziliense cites 15.1% versus 2024). Jet fuel cost R$ 4.98 per liter, 31.8% above a year earlier. In August, 34.8% of seats were sold below R$ 500 and 9.2% above R$ 1,500.
The Federal Revenue reported on September 22 that August tax revenue reached R$ 235.5 billion, a record for the month, up 8.25% in real terms from August 2025. From January to August the total reaches R$ 2.11 trillion, up 7.12% in real terms. Revenue from oil and gas extraction reached R$ 93.3 billion in the year, against R$ 16.3 billion in 2025, and withholding tax on capital income rose 33.21%, helped by the taxation of dividends. The Revenue cut its estimate of 2026 dividend tax collection from R$ 29 billion to R$ 10.5 billion.
An Iranian official told Kyodo News on September 22 that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US takes initial steps to ease military pressure, and security chief Mohsen Rezaei told Al Jazeera that Tehran sent its conditions to mediators. Trump said at the UN that oil flow in the Gulf is higher than at any time since the war began and later said a US delegation met for more than three hours with Iranian representatives, in talks he called very productive. November Brent fell 1.09% to US$ 99.25, a fifth straight decline, and WTI dropped 2% to US$ 90.52.
Halliburton announced on September 21 the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Eneva to identify and pursue development opportunities in Venezuela, expanding the relationship the companies already have in Brazil. According to Valor, the agreement is to assess business development in the country. According to Reuters, via InfoMoney, Halliburton also signed a memorandum with WESCA for oil and gas field evaluation and development planning, the agreements are non-binding and the company cites regulatory changes in Venezuela that may open room for foreign investment.
Petrobras said on September 21 that its studies found no direct socio-environmental impact on traditional communities and indigenous lands from drilling in the Foz do Amazonas, that the activity is exploratory and complies with environmental law. The response follows a federal prosecutors request to the courts for immediate suspension of the drilling license for block FZA-M-59, citing risks to fishing and to communities in 17 municipalities of Pará. Ibama had amended the Morpho well license in early September, authorizing new wells including Manga and Crotalus.
Between September 19 and 20 Ukraine launched the largest drone attack ever recorded on the Moscow region. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 450 drones aimed at the capital were shot down, and Russia says it downed more than 1,600 since Saturday. The Moscow refinery, which processed 11.6 million tonnes of oil in 2024, was hit and caught fire; a residential building was damaged and 400 people were evacuated. Coverage reports two to three deaths in the region. The attack came on the last day of Russia's parliamentary election and despite the deal announced by Trump on not striking energy infrastructure.
Yemen's Houthis said on September 19 they had attacked a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, on the Red Sea, and targets in Riyadh with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones; the capital's Civil Defense issued its first air alerts since the recent escalation and explosions were reported near the airport. Saudi Arabia suspended shipments at the port of Yanbu, the outlet of the East-West pipeline, which moves about 4 million barrels a day. Brent closed Friday at US$ 104.87.
Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command (Centcom), said on September 19 that the volume of crude oil, cargo and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz in the last two weeks is the highest in six months. According to Centcom, more than 1 billion barrels and more than 2,000 commercial ships passed through the route in recent months under escort, and Iran exported no oil through the strait in the period because of US blockades.
President Donald Trump signed on September 18 the Russia sanctions law named after Senator Lindsey Graham, passed by the House on September 16 by 262 votes to 159 and by the Senate 86 to 11. The law imposes mandatory sanctions on Putin, senior officials, oligarchs, state companies and the shadow tanker fleet, and gives the government the power to apply tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, including China and India, at the White House's discretion.
Brent closed down 0.95% on September 17 at US$ 104.82 and was down a further 2.5% on the morning of September 18 at US$ 102.20, a third straight session of losses. Saudi Arabia began offering more cargoes to Asian refiners through ship to ship transfers in Oman and seeks to restore half the capacity of the East-West pipeline, which eased fears of shortages after the Houthi attacks.
Petrobras, through its subsidiary Petrobras Netherlands, signed on September 17 production sharing contracts for eight deepwater exploration blocks in Ivory Coast, with a 90% stake and operatorship; state company Petroci holds 10%. The area is part of the African equatorial margin, analogous to the Brazilian one, where the Baleine and Calao fields were discovered.
Petrobras will raise the average price of diesel sold to distributors by R$ 1 a litre from September 17, but joined the new federal subsidy of R$ 1 a litre, valid for 30 days, which fully offsets the increase. The selling price to distributors is unchanged and the state company receives the subsidy. Update: on September 18 the board formally approved adhesion to the MP 1,391 subsidy, and the company said it received R$ 448 million from the gasoline subsidy, with R$ 9.9 billion accumulated under the programs.
Petrobras shares rose on September 15, PETR4 3.09% to R$ 50.43 and PETR3 3.63% to R$ 56.23, with November Brent up 2.9% to US$ 108.75 and WTI up 4.38% to US$ 105.83 after the Saudi pipeline shutdown and the suspension of loadings at Yanbu; the company reported output of 2.92 million barrels a day in August, up 4% from July, with a 5% gain at Búzios and improvements at Itapu and Marlim, and Bradesco BBI projects more than 3 million barrels a day in 2028. Money Times and Seu Dinheiro calculate a record market value of R$ 692.35 billion, R$ 22 billion above the previous day; the Ibovespa closed up 0.54% at 186,502 points.
Oil opened the week up more than 3% on September 14, with Brent back above US$ 100 and quoted at US$ 107.80 in the Brasília morning, after drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, about 4% of global supply, with port stocks for five to seven days; the Oman meeting between Gulf countries and Iran on Hormuz routes, scheduled for September 14, was postponed, and a ship was hit in the strait. Iran intends to announce a temporary route through the strait under a deal with Oman, keeping control over which ships pass.
November Brent fell 2.81% on September 11 to US$ 104.61 and WTI 2.3% to US$ 100.05, ending five and eight straight gains, after Iran signalled talks on safe Hormuz routes with Gulf countries in Oman on September 14; on the week both contracts rose between 8.65% and 9.37%. The IEA cut its 2026 forecasts to a 2.5 million barrel-a-day drop in consumption (from 1.6 million) and a 5.7 million drop in supply (from 4.3 million), to 100.7 million bpd, and said Saudi supply fell 2.3 million bpd in August to 6.0 million, the lowest in more than three decades, after Houthi and pro-Iran militia attacks on Jazan, Yanbu and Abqaiq.
US forces hit Iranian tankers loaded with crude, ten per CENTCOM as cited by InfoMoney and five destroyed per Bloomberg Línea and Money Times, and fresh attacks on ships were recorded near Hormuz, at least three per UKMTO and ten per Iran; Brent topped US$ 101 for the first time since July, in a fourth straight day of gains, and the Ibovespa fell 0.93% on risk aversion. September 10 update: November Brent rose 6.34% to US$ 107.63, the highest since May, as the Houthis seized the port of Mocha; Wall Street fell and the 10-year Treasury hit 4.954%, the highest since 2023.
Brent settled on September 7 near US$ 97, with a high of US$ 98.06, the highest since June, and moved toward US$ 100 on September 8 after Houthis hit facilities in four Saudi cities and the US-Iran escalation curtailed traffic in Hormuz.
Mohsen Rezaei, of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on September 6 the country will declare in the coming days a no-go zone in the Gulf, starting where the US blockade begins, with sanctions on ships crossing it, per CNN Brasil and Exame. The announcement came a day after US Central Command reported strikes on three Iranian tankers, one near Kharg Island, per CNN Brasil. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to about 10 ships a day in the ten days through September 7, the lowest since May, per Kpler data cited by CNN Brasil, and Brent rose 0.8% to above US$ 97.
Seven OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided at a virtual meeting on September 6 to keep October output at the levels planned for September, per CNN Brasil, O Globo, Poder360 and Money Times. Saudi Arabia stays at 10.478 million barrels a day and Russia at 9.949 million, per CNN Brasil; the group reaffirmed the Declaration of Cooperation and set the next monthly meeting for October 4.
The Pentagon, through its Office of Strategic Capital, acquired 35% of North American Blue Energy Partners, a company tied to Venezuelan billionaire Alejandro Betancourt with stakes in 17 Venezuelan oil fields, per InfoMoney; g1 records the Venezuelan oil deal on September 5. Per InfoMoney, the State Department may buy 20% of NABEP's oil at cost, with preferential access to the rest.
ANP's board approved on September 4 the nomination of 24 onshore exploratory blocks in the Potiguar Basin for future Permanent Offer cycles, per the agency itself, Estadão and InfoMoney. Among them is block POT-T-551, covering Tabuleiro do Norte in Ceará, where a farmer drilling a water well found a fluid confirmed as oil by ANP's research center. The blocks enter offer only after the 6th cycle, set for October 7, and after environmental analysis and a joint MME and MMA opinion.
Brava Energia recorded production of 81,642 barrels of oil equivalent a day in August, down 1.2% from 82,593 boe/d in July, with offshore output slipping from 52,991 to 51,917 boe/d and Papa-Terra falling from 10,180 to 7,927 barrels a day after a scheduled shutdown completed on August 7, per the company's CVM filing and Money Times.
Ibama authorized Petrobras to drill three more wells in block FZA-M-59 in the Foz do Amazonas basin on the Equatorial Margin, per CNN Brasil, Money Times and Poder360. Per CNN Brasil, the authorization came through an amendment of Operating License 1684/2025 and covers the contingent wells Manga, Crotalus and Morpho Extensão.
The Camex executive committee published in the September 3 Official Gazette a 60-day extension of the 12% export tax on crude oil, effective September 8, per Poder360 and CNN Brasil. The extension came after the TRF1 appeals court overturned on August 31 the injunction that had suspended the levy.
Brazil's oil production reached 4.498 million barrels a day in July, up 13.6% in a year and a new record, per consolidated ANP data released September 1 and reported by InfoMoney. Including natural gas, total output was 5.851 million barrels of oil equivalent a day; the pre-salt accounted for 82.4%, and Petrobras operated 87.27% of the total.
Petrobras raised the average price of jet fuel by 13.9% from September 1, attributing the rise to international quotations pressured by Middle East tensions, per InfoMoney, CNN Brasil, Valor and Agência Brasil. Per CNN, the increase is R$ 0.68 per liter and the cumulative rise since December reaches 53.3%.
Appeals judge Roberto Carvalho Veloso of the TRF1 lifted the injunction suspending the 12% oil export tax for Abep members, granting the AGU appeal, per Gazeta do Povo and Poder360. The levy is back in force — five days after the first-instance injunction that opened the clash with Camex.
The US struck an Iranian facility on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday (30th), and US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain reported retaliatory Iranian attacks — the first direct exchange of hostilities in about a month, per CNN Brasil and the Reuters dispatch carried by InfoMoney and Money Times. Oil rose more than 2% on Monday, with Brent back around US$ 90.
Venezuela's president confirmed the oil agreement with the United States announced by Trump, per Agência Brasil and Gazeta do Povo. The arrangement calls for investments on the order of US$ 100 billion and covers 65 billion barrels across 17 fields, with a production target of 1.5 million barrels a day. Trump had announced the initiative on August 28.
Brasília's 17th Federal Court granted an injunction on August 27 suspending the 12% oil export tax for Abep member companies. The same day, Gecex-Camex extended the levy for another 60 days starting September 8. The tax collected R$ 7.98 billion from January through July.
Petrobras reported that the FPSO Alexandre de Gusmão reached its designed peak output of 180,000 barrels of oil per day. The unit is the fifth definitive platform at the Mero field, in the Santos Basin pre-salt, one of the company's main production growth drivers.
Oil gave back the escalation's gains: Brent fell 3.61% to US$87.27 and WTI 3.12% to US$82.36 on August 25, after Iran and Oman struck a deal for a joint temporary maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, with mine-clearing operations. The US is not part of the deal and the sanctions announced the prior week remain in force.
Petrobras identified hydrocarbons in the Morpho well in the Foz do Amazonas and, in an August 17 press conference, CEO Magda Chambriard said the company found oil, with volume and commerciality still to be determined. Three additional wells in the block await Ibama licensing.
Oil settled above $85 as markets assessed the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In Brazil, the dollar and Ibovespa ended the session in opposite directions amid greater global caution.