MACROBrazil
Retail sales rise 0.2% in September but fall 0.3% in the third quarter
Retail sales rose 0.2% in September from August, according to IBGE, but the third quarter closed 0.3% lower than the second.
Macro & EconomiesMacro
Selic rate
Brazil's benchmark policy interest rate set by Copom.
39articles
48material mentions
12connections
Last 90 days
What sources are saying
With the Selic at 14% a year, August's -0.40% IPCA-15 reinforced cut bets, while the Treasury revised the PAF citing market preference for floaters — Selic-linked debt may reach 53% of the stock. The Focus survey projects 13.75% for end-2026.
Updated November 14, 2026 · 32 verified articles
Market transmission
Why it matters
The Selic rate influences opportunity cost, credit, currencies, activity and asset valuation.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.Articles in chronological order
39MACROBrazil
IPCA slows to 0.14% in October, but 12-month inflation stands at 4.63%, above the ceiling
The IPCA rose 0.14% in October after 0.82% in September, according to IBGE; over 12 months, inflation reached 4.63%, above the 4.5% target ceiling.
MACROBrazil
Services volume falls 0.1% in September, ending 29 straight annual gains
Services sector volume fell 0.1% in September from August, according to IBGE, and also dropped 0.1% year on year, ending 29 straight positive readings.
MACROBrazil
Copom minutes say slowdown has not contained inflation and back tight rates for longer
The minutes of the November 4 Copom meeting, released on November 10, say inflation re-accelerated despite slower activity and that the Selic should stay restrictive for longer, citing supply shocks such as oil, El Niño, the end of the 6x1 work schedule and the weaker real, according to Agência Brasil and Gazeta do Povo.
MACROBrazil
Focus raises 2026 Selic forecast to 13.75% and 2027 inflation to 4.90%
The November 9 Focus survey raised the end-2026 Selic forecast from 13.5% to 13.75%, with no cuts through December, and the 2027 IPCA forecast from 4.76% to 4.90%, according to Agência Brasil, CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense.
MACROBrazil
Lula says in national address that debt and rates worry him and pledges fiscal responsibility
In a national address on November 8, Lula said the public debt trajectory and high interest rates worry him and pledged to create conditions to lower rates while preserving fiscal rules, without detailing measures, according to InfoMoney, Exame, Bloomberg Línea and Agência Brasil.
MACROBrazil
Durigan says 13.75% Selic is quite high and bad for the economy
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on November 5 that the 13.75% Selic is quite high and very bad for the economy and that the government must create conditions for rates to fall, a day after Copom held the rate, according to Agência Brasil and Correio Braziliense.
MACROBrazil
Copom holds Selic at 13.75% and halts rate-cut cycle
The central bank Monetary Policy Committee held the Selic rate at 13.75% a year on November 4, halting a run of five cuts, in its first decision after Lula reelection, according to Agência Brasil, InfoMoney and Gazeta do Povo.
MACROBrazil
IPCA-15 slows to 0.32% in October, with 4.62% over 12 months
The IPCA-15, a preview of official inflation, rose 0.32% in October from 0.70% in September, according to IBGE, and reached 4.62% over 12 months, up from 4.47% the previous month, according to Agência Brasil and Correio Braziliense.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey raises 2026 IPCA forecast to 5.22%, a fourth straight increase, and lowers the year-end Selic forecast to 13.25%
The central bank's Focus survey of October 13 raised the median 2026 IPCA forecast from 5.01% to 5.22%, a fourth straight weekly increase, after September's above-forecast IPCA. The year-end 2026 Selic forecast fell from 13.50% to 13.25%.
MACROBrazil
Brazil's IPCA rises 0.82% in September, above forecasts, and reaches 4.58% over 12 months, above the target ceiling
Official inflation measured by the IPCA rose 0.82% in September after deflation in August, according to IBGE. It is the highest monthly rate since March and came in above market forecasts. Over 12 months, the index reaches 4.58%, above the 4.5% target ceiling.
MACROBrazil
Focus: economists raise 2026 inflation forecast to 5.01%, a third straight increase, and keep the Selic at 13.50% at year-end
The October 5 Focus survey showed the median 2026 IPCA forecast at 5.01%, a third straight increase and back above 5%. For 2027, the forecast stood at 4.30%. The projected Selic for end-2026 held at 13.50%, with 12.00% for 2027, and 2026 GDP growth moved to 1.85%.
MACROBrazil
Consolidated public sector posts a R$ 10 billion primary deficit in August, and nominal interest totals R$ 105.9 billion
The consolidated public sector, which includes the federal government, states, municipalities and state companies, posted a R$ 10 billion primary deficit in August, according to central bank data released on September 30. Over 12 months, the deficit totals R$ 82.1 billion, or 0.62% of GDP. Nominal interest on the debt reached R$ 105.9 billion in the month. According to Agência Brasil, general government gross debt rose to 82.9% of GDP.
MACROBrazil
Federal public debt reaches R$ 9.29 trillion in August, with the Selic-linked share at a record 52.74%
Federal Public Debt totaled R$ 9.29 trillion in August, up 0.04% from July, according to the National Treasury Monthly Report released on September 28. The share of Selic-linked bonds reached 52.74%, the highest in the series started in 2000, while fixed-rate bonds fell to 20.31% and inflation-linked bonds stood at 23.22%. The 12-month average cost of the debt rose to 12.59% a year, and the liquidity cushion fell to R$ 1.208 trillion, equivalent to 7.18 months of maturities.
MACROBrazil
Copom minutes see elevated inflation risks, back restrictive rates for longer and project 5.2% IPCA for 2026
The minutes of the September 15 and 16 meeting, released on September 22, explain the unanimous quarter-point Selic cut to 13.75% by the slowdown in cycle-sensitive sectors and the loss of momentum in inflation, but state that elevated inflation risks and unanchored expectations require restrictive monetary policy for longer. The committee projects IPCA of 5.2% in 2026, 3.9% in 2027 and 3.2% in the first quarter of 2028, cites higher external uncertainty from Middle East tensions and ties next steps to the path of inflation.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey cuts the 2026 Selic to 13.50%, lifts IPCA to 4.92% and trims GDP to 1.88%
The September 21 Focus survey, the first reading after the Copom quarter-point cut, moved the median Selic for end-2026 from 13.75% to 13.50%, with 12.00% in 2027 and 10.50% in 2028. The 2026 IPCA projection rose from 4.90% to 4.92%, above the target ceiling, and 2027 stayed at 4.30%. GDP for 2026 slipped from 1.89% to 1.88% and 2027 from 1.45% to 1.43%; the exchange rate stayed at R$ 5.20 for the 14th week.
CORPORATEBrazil
Porto Seguro approves R$ 333.4 million in third-quarter interest on equity, record date September 23
Porto Seguro's board approved R$ 333.43 million in interest on equity for the third quarter of 2026, R$ 0.52065720703 gross and R$ 0.42996563103 net per share. The record date is September 23 and payment falls by April 30, 2027, according to Money Times and InfoMoney.
MACROBrazil
Copom cuts the Selic to 13.75% unanimously and leaves the size of the cycle open
The Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Selic by 0.25 point, from 14% to 13.75% a year, in the fifth consecutive cut and the lowest level since March 2025. The statement says the total size of the cycle will be set in light of new information, without signalling the next step.
MACROGlobal
Fed raises rates to 3.75%-4.00% in the first hike since 2023 and Trump demands a 1% rate
The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark rate by 0.25 point to 3.75%-4.00% a year in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023. Projections point to at least one more hike in 2026 and no cut before 2028. Hours later, Donald Trump demanded a 1% rate and criticised Fed chair Kevin Warsh.
MACROBrazil
IBC-Br falls 0.2% in July in the second straight drop and grows 1.1% in a year
The Central Bank Economic Activity Index fell 0.2% in July from June, seasonally adjusted, after a 0.6% drop in June. Agriculture fell 1.2%, industry 0.4% and services were flat. Year on year the index rose 1.1%; in the year to date and over 12 months, 1.5%.
MACROBrazil
Retail sales fall 0.8% in July, worse than consensus, and reinforce weak activity on the eve of the Copom
Retail sales volume fell 0.8% in July from June, per the IBGE Monthly Retail Survey released on September 15, against a Reuters consensus of a 0.2% drop; versus July 2025 the rise was 1.2%, below the 2.15% expected. Five of eight sectors declined, with furniture and appliances down 4.9%, books and stationery 4.2% and apparel 2.7%, which IBGE attributes to purchases brought forward for the World Cup in May; expanded retail rose 0.4% in the month, and restricted retail is up 1.8% in the year and 1.6% over 12 months.
MACROBrazil
Industrial confidence falls to 44.9 points in September and completes 21 months of pessimism, the longest stretch since 2015
The CNI Industrial Business Confidence Index (ICEI) fell 1.4 point in September to 44.9 points, from 46.3 in August, completing 21 straight months below the 50-point line that separates optimism from pessimism, the longest stretch since the one recorded in 2015 and 2016. The current conditions index fell 2.5 points to 40.2, with the assessment of the Brazilian economy at 33 points (-3.6), and the expectations index slipped 0.9 point to 47.2; the survey polled 1,186 companies between September 1 and 8.
MACROBrazil
Focus: median 2026 IPCA forecast falls to 4.90%, first time below 5%, and the market expects Selic at 13.75% this week
The September 14 Focus survey put the median forecast for 2026 IPCA at 4.90%, from 5.00% the previous week and 5.02% four weeks earlier, the first reading below 5% this year, after the 0.32% deflation in August; the 2027 forecast rose to 4.30%. The market expects a 0.25 point Selic cut to 13.75% at the September 15-16 Copom meeting and sees the rate at 13.75% at end-2026; the median 2026 GDP forecast fell to 1.89% and 2027 to 1.45%, with the dollar projected at R$ 5.20 for the 13th week.
MACROBrazil
IPCA falls 0.32% in August, the deepest deflation in four years, taking 12-month inflation to 4.22%, below forecasts
The IPCA fell 0.32% in August, the deepest monthly deflation in four years, driven by the Itaipu bonus on power bills (electricity -7.63%) and declines in food and transport, per IBGE; the median forecast was -0.29%. Twelve-month inflation eased from 4.44% to 4.22%, below the 4.27% projected, and Treasury bond yields fell up to 15 basis points; BofA now projects a 13.25% Selic at year-end, with 0.25-point cuts at every remaining meeting.
MACROBrazil
Services flat in July, industrial revenue down 2% and Copom options price 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut
Services volume was flat in July versus June and is up 2.4% over 12 months, the lowest since September 2024, per IBGE; real industrial revenue fell 2% in July, down 0.5% year to date, per CNI; and B3's Copom options, based on the September 8 session, price about 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut, from 14% to 13.75%, at the September 15-16 meeting.
MACROBrazil
BofA upgrades Brazil to overweight and the Ibovespa posts its highest close since May, with the dollar at R$ 5.09 and foreigners back
Bank of America upgraded Brazilian equities from neutral to overweight on September 8, betting on a deeper Selic cutting cycle to 11.25% by end-2027; the same day the Ibovespa closed at 187,366 points, its highest since May 4, the dollar fell to R$ 5.089 and foreigners posted R$ 3.9 billion of inflows in September's first three sessions.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey trims the 2026 IPCA forecast to 5% for a second week and keeps the Selic at 13.75% a week before the Copom
The September 8 Focus survey, delayed by the holiday, showed the 2026 IPCA median falling from 5.01% to 5%, a second straight drop, with the Selic held at 13.75% for end-2026 and 12% for 2027, 2026 GDP at 1.93% and the exchange rate at R$ 5.20, a week before the September 15-16 Copom meeting.
MACROBrazil
Vehicle sales rise 22.1% in August, best month since 2013, Fenabrave says
New vehicle registrations totaled 275,094 units in August, up 22.1% from August 2025 and down 1.6% from July, the best August since 2013, per Fenabrave, reported by CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. Year to date, sales reach 1.97 million units, up 18.45%.
MACROBrazil
Industrial output rises 0.2% in July, ending two months of decline, IBGE says
Brazil's industrial output grew 0.2% in July from June, ending two months of decline, but fell 0.5% from July 2025, per IBGE, reported by Agência Brasil, Poder360 and Correio Braziliense.
MACROBrazil
GDP grows 0.5% in Q2 as household consumption falls
Brazil's GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026 versus the first, seasonally adjusted, per IBGE — above the 0.4% consensus cited by InfoMoney. Household consumption fell 0.4% in the period. Future rates dropped after the release as markets firmed Selic-cut bets.
MACROBrazil
Brazil adds 58,600 formal jobs in July, weakest for the month since 2020
July's Caged payroll report, released August 28, showed a net 58,568 formal jobs created — the worst July since 2020 and well below the market consensus of about 114,000. Per Money Times, short-term rates fell after the data as markets firmed bets on Selic cuts.
MERCADOSBrazil
Ibovespa strings eighth straight gain, closing the week up 2.7%
The Ibovespa closed the August 28 session higher for the eighth straight time and ended the week up about 2.7%, per Exame and Bloomberg Línea. The dollar rose 0.66% to R$ 5.196, per Poder360. The streak mirrors — and extends — the recovery begun after the eleven-session losing run that ended August 19.
MACROBrazil
Bank delinquency hits record in July, Central Bank data show
Bank credit delinquency hit a record in July, per Central Bank data released August 28, with household defaults at the highest level on record. According to InfoMoney, the free-market credit rate reached 6.4%, a record for the series started in 2011. The rise comes with the Desenrola 2.0 program in effect.
MACROBrazil
Public debt reaches R$9.28 trillion as Treasury widens room for Selic-linked bonds
Federal public debt reached R$9.28 trillion in July, up 0.22% from June, per the Treasury's monthly report recorded by CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. In a same-day release, the Treasury revised the Annual Financing Plan, raising the expected share of Selic-linked bonds from 46%-50% to 49%-53% of the stock, citing stronger demand for floaters with the rate at 14% a year.
MACROBrazil
IPCA-15 posts 0.40% deflation in August on the Itaipu bonus in power bills
The IPCA-15 posted 0.40% deflation in August, per IBGE, with the 12-month figure decelerating from 4.52% to 4.24%. The main driver was residential electricity, down 6.25% as the Itaipu bonus was credited on bills — a one-off effect coverage treats as transitory.
JUROSBrazil
Galípolo defends contractionary rates to rebalance demand
At a Santander conference on August 17, Central Bank chief Gabriel Galípolo said monetary policy targets contractionary territory to rebalance supply and demand, with demand growing beyond the economy's supply capacity.
MACROBrazil
IBC-Br falls 0.6% in June, consolidating the quarter-end slowdown
The IBC-Br, the Central Bank's monthly GDP proxy, fell 0.6% in June from May in seasonally adjusted terms, in data released August 17. Excluding agriculture, the decline would be 0.9%.
MACROBrazil
Services hold steady in June and grow 2% year over year
Services volume was unchanged in June from May and rose 2% from June 2025. The sector ended the month 0.3% below its record, combining a high level with signs of moderation.
INFLAÇÃOBrazil
Focus survey lowers its inflation forecast for a sixth week
The median market forecast for 2026 inflation declined again, reaching 5.02%. The growth estimate also fell, while the Selic and dollar forecasts were unchanged from the previous week.