Macro & EconomiesMacro

Selic rate

Brazil's benchmark policy interest rate set by Copom.

25articles

31material mentions

12connections

Last 90 days

What sources are saying

With the Selic at 14% a year, August's -0.40% IPCA-15 reinforced cut bets, while the Treasury revised the PAF citing market preference for floaters — Selic-linked debt may reach 53% of the stock. The Focus survey projects 13.75% for end-2026.

Updated September 23, 2026 · 18 verified articles

Market transmission

Why it matters

The Selic rate influences opportunity cost, credit, currencies, activity and asset valuation.

Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.

Articles in chronological order

MACROBrazil

Copom minutes see elevated inflation risks, back restrictive rates for longer and project 5.2% IPCA for 2026

The minutes of the September 15 and 16 meeting, released on September 22, explain the unanimous quarter-point Selic cut to 13.75% by the slowdown in cycle-sensitive sectors and the loss of momentum in inflation, but state that elevated inflation risks and unanchored expectations require restrictive monetary policy for longer. The committee projects IPCA of 5.2% in 2026, 3.9% in 2027 and 3.2% in the first quarter of 2028, cites higher external uncertainty from Middle East tensions and ties next steps to the path of inflation.

3 sourcesSep 22, 2026

MACROBrazil

Focus survey cuts the 2026 Selic to 13.50%, lifts IPCA to 4.92% and trims GDP to 1.88%

The September 21 Focus survey, the first reading after the Copom quarter-point cut, moved the median Selic for end-2026 from 13.75% to 13.50%, with 12.00% in 2027 and 10.50% in 2028. The 2026 IPCA projection rose from 4.90% to 4.92%, above the target ceiling, and 2027 stayed at 4.30%. GDP for 2026 slipped from 1.89% to 1.88% and 2027 from 1.45% to 1.43%; the exchange rate stayed at R$ 5.20 for the 14th week.

3 sourcesSep 21, 2026

CORPORATEBrazil

Porto Seguro approves R$ 333.4 million in third-quarter interest on equity, record date September 23

Porto Seguro's board approved R$ 333.43 million in interest on equity for the third quarter of 2026, R$ 0.52065720703 gross and R$ 0.42996563103 net per share. The record date is September 23 and payment falls by April 30, 2027, according to Money Times and InfoMoney.

2 sourcesSep 18, 2026

MACROBrazil

Copom cuts the Selic to 13.75% unanimously and leaves the size of the cycle open

The Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Selic by 0.25 point, from 14% to 13.75% a year, in the fifth consecutive cut and the lowest level since March 2025. The statement says the total size of the cycle will be set in light of new information, without signalling the next step.

8 sourcesSep 16, 2026

MACROGlobal

Fed raises rates to 3.75%-4.00% in the first hike since 2023 and Trump demands a 1% rate

The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark rate by 0.25 point to 3.75%-4.00% a year in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023. Projections point to at least one more hike in 2026 and no cut before 2028. Hours later, Donald Trump demanded a 1% rate and criticised Fed chair Kevin Warsh.

8 sourcesSep 16, 2026

MACROBrazil

IBC-Br falls 0.2% in July in the second straight drop and grows 1.1% in a year

The Central Bank Economic Activity Index fell 0.2% in July from June, seasonally adjusted, after a 0.6% drop in June. Agriculture fell 1.2%, industry 0.4% and services were flat. Year on year the index rose 1.1%; in the year to date and over 12 months, 1.5%.

4 sourcesSep 16, 2026

MACROBrazil

Retail sales fall 0.8% in July, worse than consensus, and reinforce weak activity on the eve of the Copom

Retail sales volume fell 0.8% in July from June, per the IBGE Monthly Retail Survey released on September 15, against a Reuters consensus of a 0.2% drop; versus July 2025 the rise was 1.2%, below the 2.15% expected. Five of eight sectors declined, with furniture and appliances down 4.9%, books and stationery 4.2% and apparel 2.7%, which IBGE attributes to purchases brought forward for the World Cup in May; expanded retail rose 0.4% in the month, and restricted retail is up 1.8% in the year and 1.6% over 12 months.

2 sourcesSep 15, 2026

MACROBrazil

Industrial confidence falls to 44.9 points in September and completes 21 months of pessimism, the longest stretch since 2015

The CNI Industrial Business Confidence Index (ICEI) fell 1.4 point in September to 44.9 points, from 46.3 in August, completing 21 straight months below the 50-point line that separates optimism from pessimism, the longest stretch since the one recorded in 2015 and 2016. The current conditions index fell 2.5 points to 40.2, with the assessment of the Brazilian economy at 33 points (-3.6), and the expectations index slipped 0.9 point to 47.2; the survey polled 1,186 companies between September 1 and 8.

2 sourcesSep 14, 2026

MACROBrazil

Focus: median 2026 IPCA forecast falls to 4.90%, first time below 5%, and the market expects Selic at 13.75% this week

The September 14 Focus survey put the median forecast for 2026 IPCA at 4.90%, from 5.00% the previous week and 5.02% four weeks earlier, the first reading below 5% this year, after the 0.32% deflation in August; the 2027 forecast rose to 4.30%. The market expects a 0.25 point Selic cut to 13.75% at the September 15-16 Copom meeting and sees the rate at 13.75% at end-2026; the median 2026 GDP forecast fell to 1.89% and 2027 to 1.45%, with the dollar projected at R$ 5.20 for the 13th week.

2 sourcesSep 14, 2026

MACROBrazil

IPCA falls 0.32% in August, the deepest deflation in four years, taking 12-month inflation to 4.22%, below forecasts

The IPCA fell 0.32% in August, the deepest monthly deflation in four years, driven by the Itaipu bonus on power bills (electricity -7.63%) and declines in food and transport, per IBGE; the median forecast was -0.29%. Twelve-month inflation eased from 4.44% to 4.22%, below the 4.27% projected, and Treasury bond yields fell up to 15 basis points; BofA now projects a 13.25% Selic at year-end, with 0.25-point cuts at every remaining meeting.

7 sourcesSep 11, 2026

MACROBrazil

Services flat in July, industrial revenue down 2% and Copom options price 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut

Services volume was flat in July versus June and is up 2.4% over 12 months, the lowest since September 2024, per IBGE; real industrial revenue fell 2% in July, down 0.5% year to date, per CNI; and B3's Copom options, based on the September 8 session, price about 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut, from 14% to 13.75%, at the September 15-16 meeting.

7 sourcesSep 10, 2026

MACROBrazil

BofA upgrades Brazil to overweight and the Ibovespa posts its highest close since May, with the dollar at R$ 5.09 and foreigners back

Bank of America upgraded Brazilian equities from neutral to overweight on September 8, betting on a deeper Selic cutting cycle to 11.25% by end-2027; the same day the Ibovespa closed at 187,366 points, its highest since May 4, the dollar fell to R$ 5.089 and foreigners posted R$ 3.9 billion of inflows in September's first three sessions.

8 sourcesSep 08, 2026

MACROBrazil

Focus survey trims the 2026 IPCA forecast to 5% for a second week and keeps the Selic at 13.75% a week before the Copom

The September 8 Focus survey, delayed by the holiday, showed the 2026 IPCA median falling from 5.01% to 5%, a second straight drop, with the Selic held at 13.75% for end-2026 and 12% for 2027, 2026 GDP at 1.93% and the exchange rate at R$ 5.20, a week before the September 15-16 Copom meeting.

4 sourcesSep 08, 2026

MACROBrazil

Vehicle sales rise 22.1% in August, best month since 2013, Fenabrave says

New vehicle registrations totaled 275,094 units in August, up 22.1% from August 2025 and down 1.6% from July, the best August since 2013, per Fenabrave, reported by CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. Year to date, sales reach 1.97 million units, up 18.45%.

2 sourcesSep 02, 2026

MACROBrazil

Industrial output rises 0.2% in July, ending two months of decline, IBGE says

Brazil's industrial output grew 0.2% in July from June, ending two months of decline, but fell 0.5% from July 2025, per IBGE, reported by Agência Brasil, Poder360 and Correio Braziliense.

4 sourcesSep 02, 2026

MACROBrazil

GDP grows 0.5% in Q2 as household consumption falls

Brazil's GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026 versus the first, seasonally adjusted, per IBGE — above the 0.4% consensus cited by InfoMoney. Household consumption fell 0.4% in the period. Future rates dropped after the release as markets firmed Selic-cut bets.

6 sourcesSep 02, 2026

MACROBrazil

Brazil adds 58,600 formal jobs in July, weakest for the month since 2020

July's Caged payroll report, released August 28, showed a net 58,568 formal jobs created — the worst July since 2020 and well below the market consensus of about 114,000. Per Money Times, short-term rates fell after the data as markets firmed bets on Selic cuts.

6 sourcesAug 29, 2026

MERCADOSBrazil

Ibovespa strings eighth straight gain, closing the week up 2.7%

The Ibovespa closed the August 28 session higher for the eighth straight time and ended the week up about 2.7%, per Exame and Bloomberg Línea. The dollar rose 0.66% to R$ 5.196, per Poder360. The streak mirrors — and extends — the recovery begun after the eleven-session losing run that ended August 19.

5 sourcesAug 29, 2026

MACROBrazil

Bank delinquency hits record in July, Central Bank data show

Bank credit delinquency hit a record in July, per Central Bank data released August 28, with household defaults at the highest level on record. According to InfoMoney, the free-market credit rate reached 6.4%, a record for the series started in 2011. The rise comes with the Desenrola 2.0 program in effect.

3 sourcesAug 29, 2026

MACROBrazil

Public debt reaches R$9.28 trillion as Treasury widens room for Selic-linked bonds

Federal public debt reached R$9.28 trillion in July, up 0.22% from June, per the Treasury's monthly report recorded by CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. In a same-day release, the Treasury revised the Annual Financing Plan, raising the expected share of Selic-linked bonds from 46%-50% to 49%-53% of the stock, citing stronger demand for floaters with the rate at 14% a year.

4 sourcesAug 26, 2026

MACROBrazil

IPCA-15 posts 0.40% deflation in August on the Itaipu bonus in power bills

The IPCA-15 posted 0.40% deflation in August, per IBGE, with the 12-month figure decelerating from 4.52% to 4.24%. The main driver was residential electricity, down 6.25% as the Itaipu bonus was credited on bills — a one-off effect coverage treats as transitory.

2 sourcesAug 26, 2026

JUROSBrazil

Galípolo defends contractionary rates to rebalance demand

At a Santander conference on August 17, Central Bank chief Gabriel Galípolo said monetary policy targets contractionary territory to rebalance supply and demand, with demand growing beyond the economy's supply capacity.

4 sourcesAug 17, 2026

MACROBrazil

IBC-Br falls 0.6% in June, consolidating the quarter-end slowdown

The IBC-Br, the Central Bank's monthly GDP proxy, fell 0.6% in June from May in seasonally adjusted terms, in data released August 17. Excluding agriculture, the decline would be 0.9%.

2 sourcesAug 17, 2026

MACROBrazil

Services hold steady in June and grow 2% year over year

Services volume was unchanged in June from May and rose 2% from June 2025. The sector ended the month 0.3% below its record, combining a high level with signs of moderation.

3 sourcesAug 12, 2026

INFLAÇÃOBrazil

Focus survey lowers its inflation forecast for a sixth week

The median market forecast for 2026 inflation declined again, reaching 5.02%. The growth estimate also fell, while the Selic and dollar forecasts were unchanged from the previous week.

3 sourcesAug 10, 2026

Map connections

What sources are saying

Why it matters

Articles in chronological order

Copom minutes see elevated inflation risks, back restrictive rates for longer and project 5.2% IPCA for 2026

Focus survey cuts the 2026 Selic to 13.50%, lifts IPCA to 4.92% and trims GDP to 1.88%

Porto Seguro approves R$ 333.4 million in third-quarter interest on equity, record date September 23

Copom cuts the Selic to 13.75% unanimously and leaves the size of the cycle open

Fed raises rates to 3.75%-4.00% in the first hike since 2023 and Trump demands a 1% rate

IBC-Br falls 0.2% in July in the second straight drop and grows 1.1% in a year

Retail sales fall 0.8% in July, worse than consensus, and reinforce weak activity on the eve of the Copom

Industrial confidence falls to 44.9 points in September and completes 21 months of pessimism, the longest stretch since 2015

Focus: median 2026 IPCA forecast falls to 4.90%, first time below 5%, and the market expects Selic at 13.75% this week

IPCA falls 0.32% in August, the deepest deflation in four years, taking 12-month inflation to 4.22%, below forecasts

Services flat in July, industrial revenue down 2% and Copom options price 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut

BofA upgrades Brazil to overweight and the Ibovespa posts its highest close since May, with the dollar at R$ 5.09 and foreigners back

Focus survey trims the 2026 IPCA forecast to 5% for a second week and keeps the Selic at 13.75% a week before the Copom

Vehicle sales rise 22.1% in August, best month since 2013, Fenabrave says

Industrial output rises 0.2% in July, ending two months of decline, IBGE says

GDP grows 0.5% in Q2 as household consumption falls

Brazil adds 58,600 formal jobs in July, weakest for the month since 2020

Ibovespa strings eighth straight gain, closing the week up 2.7%

Bank delinquency hits record in July, Central Bank data show

Public debt reaches R$9.28 trillion as Treasury widens room for Selic-linked bonds

IPCA-15 posts 0.40% deflation in August on the Itaipu bonus in power bills

Galípolo defends contractionary rates to rebalance demand

IBC-Br falls 0.6% in June, consolidating the quarter-end slowdown

Services hold steady in June and grow 2% year over year

Focus survey lowers its inflation forecast for a sixth week