Monday, September 28, 2026

NEXO MARKETS

what moves your portfolio, without the noise

Trending
← back to the Market Map
Macro & EconomiesMacro

GDP

Aggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.

16articles
28material mentions
11connections
11
MacroSelic rate12 shared articles ↗MacroInflation7 shared articles ↗AssetNTN-B 20352 shared articles ↗MacroYield Curve2 shared articles ↗AssetHGLG111 shared article ↗AssetU.S. dollar1 shared article ↗OrganizationCasas Bahia1 shared article ↗MacroPublic Debt1 shared article ↗ThemeCredit Stress1 shared article ↗OrganizationB31 shared article ↗ThemeIndustrial policy1 shared article ↗

Last 90 days

What sources are saying

GDP grew 0.5% in Q2 2026 versus Q1 (IBGE), above the 0.4% consensus, but with household consumption down 0.4% and growth of just 0.2% excluding agriculture — a weak-demand composition that pushed future rates down and reinforced Selic-cut bets. The Focus survey projects 1.92% for the year.

Updated September 23, 2026 · 12 verified articles

Market transmission

Why it matters

Growth changes revenue, employment, tax collection, credit and rate expectations.

Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.

Articles in chronological order

16
MACROBrazil

Vehicle financing reaches 683,900 units in August, up 10.4% and the best result for the month in 15 years, according to B3

Data from Trillia, the B3 lien platform, released on September 22 show 683,928 vehicles financed in August, up 10.4% from August 2025 and the best result for the month since 2011. There were 478,000 light vehicles (350,000 new and 127,000 used), 178,000 motorcycles (up 4.9%) and 27,000 heavy vehicles (up 10.4%). Year to date, 5.136 million vehicles were financed, 10% more than in 2025. New vehicle prices rose 2.7% in August and are down 1.1% over 12 months; used prices are down 3.9% over 12 months.

3 sourcesSep 22, 2026
MACROBrazil

Finance Ministry cuts its 2026 GDP forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and IPCA to 4.9% in the Macrofiscal Bulletin

The Macrofiscal Bulletin of the Economic Policy Secretariat, released on September 22, cut the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and 2027 from 2.5% to 2.3%. The revision is concentrated in services (from 2.4% to 1.8%) and industry (from 2.1% to 1.7%), while agriculture rises from 1.8% to 2.8%. The 2026 IPCA forecast fell from 5.1% to 4.9% and 2027 rose from 3.6% to 3.8%. The SPE cites the weak carry-over from the first half, the lagged transmission of monetary policy and the record share of household income committed to debt service.

4 sourcesSep 22, 2026
MACROBrazil

Copom minutes see elevated inflation risks, back restrictive rates for longer and project 5.2% IPCA for 2026

The minutes of the September 15 and 16 meeting, released on September 22, explain the unanimous quarter-point Selic cut to 13.75% by the slowdown in cycle-sensitive sectors and the loss of momentum in inflation, but state that elevated inflation risks and unanchored expectations require restrictive monetary policy for longer. The committee projects IPCA of 5.2% in 2026, 3.9% in 2027 and 3.2% in the first quarter of 2028, cites higher external uncertainty from Middle East tensions and ties next steps to the path of inflation.

3 sourcesSep 22, 2026
MACROBrazil

CNI survey: industrial output posts the worst August since 2015 and investment intention falls to the lowest since 2020

The CNI Industrial Survey released on September 21 shows the production index at 46.3 points in August, down 4.7 points from July and the worst result for the month since 2015. Investment intention fell 1.3 point in September to 51.3 points, the lowest since August 2020 and the fourth straight decline. Employment stood at 48.2 points, capacity utilization fell to 69% and inventories to 49.5 points. The survey polled 1,403 companies between September 1 and 11.

2 sourcesSep 21, 2026
MACROBrazil

Focus survey cuts the 2026 Selic to 13.50%, lifts IPCA to 4.92% and trims GDP to 1.88%

The September 21 Focus survey, the first reading after the Copom quarter-point cut, moved the median Selic for end-2026 from 13.75% to 13.50%, with 12.00% in 2027 and 10.50% in 2028. The 2026 IPCA projection rose from 4.90% to 4.92%, above the target ceiling, and 2027 stayed at 4.30%. GDP for 2026 slipped from 1.89% to 1.88% and 2027 from 1.45% to 1.43%; the exchange rate stayed at R$ 5.20 for the 14th week.

3 sourcesSep 21, 2026
MACROBrazil

Retail sales fall 0.8% in July, worse than consensus, and reinforce weak activity on the eve of the Copom

Retail sales volume fell 0.8% in July from June, per the IBGE Monthly Retail Survey released on September 15, against a Reuters consensus of a 0.2% drop; versus July 2025 the rise was 1.2%, below the 2.15% expected. Five of eight sectors declined, with furniture and appliances down 4.9%, books and stationery 4.2% and apparel 2.7%, which IBGE attributes to purchases brought forward for the World Cup in May; expanded retail rose 0.4% in the month, and restricted retail is up 1.8% in the year and 1.6% over 12 months.

2 sourcesSep 15, 2026
MACROBrazil

Industrial confidence falls to 44.9 points in September and completes 21 months of pessimism, the longest stretch since 2015

The CNI Industrial Business Confidence Index (ICEI) fell 1.4 point in September to 44.9 points, from 46.3 in August, completing 21 straight months below the 50-point line that separates optimism from pessimism, the longest stretch since the one recorded in 2015 and 2016. The current conditions index fell 2.5 points to 40.2, with the assessment of the Brazilian economy at 33 points (-3.6), and the expectations index slipped 0.9 point to 47.2; the survey polled 1,186 companies between September 1 and 8.

2 sourcesSep 14, 2026
MACROBrazil

Focus: median 2026 IPCA forecast falls to 4.90%, first time below 5%, and the market expects Selic at 13.75% this week

The September 14 Focus survey put the median forecast for 2026 IPCA at 4.90%, from 5.00% the previous week and 5.02% four weeks earlier, the first reading below 5% this year, after the 0.32% deflation in August; the 2027 forecast rose to 4.30%. The market expects a 0.25 point Selic cut to 13.75% at the September 15-16 Copom meeting and sees the rate at 13.75% at end-2026; the median 2026 GDP forecast fell to 1.89% and 2027 to 1.45%, with the dollar projected at R$ 5.20 for the 13th week.

2 sourcesSep 14, 2026