MACROBrazil
Retail sales rise 0.2% in September but fall 0.3% in the third quarter
Retail sales rose 0.2% in September from August, according to IBGE, but the third quarter closed 0.3% lower than the second.
Macro & EconomiesMacro
GDP
Aggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.
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57material mentions
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Last 90 days
What sources are saying
GDP grew 0.5% in Q2 2026 versus Q1 (IBGE), above the 0.4% consensus, but with household consumption down 0.4% and growth of just 0.2% excluding agriculture — a weak-demand composition that pushed future rates down and reinforced Selic-cut bets. The Focus survey projects 1.92% for the year.
Updated November 14, 2026 · 28 verified articles
Market transmission
Why it matters
Growth changes revenue, employment, tax collection, credit and rate expectations.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.Articles in chronological order
32MACROBrazil
Industrial revenue rises 0.8% in September after two declines, CNI shows
Real industrial revenue rose 0.8% in September from August, according to CNI, recovering only part of the 2.1% July and 3.8% August declines.
MACROBrazil
Services volume falls 0.1% in September, ending 29 straight annual gains
Services sector volume fell 0.1% in September from August, according to IBGE, and also dropped 0.1% year on year, ending 29 straight positive readings.
MACROBrazil
XP raises 2027 inflation forecast to 5.5% and cuts GDP to 0.3%
XP raised its 2027 inflation forecast from 4.4% to 5.5% and cut its GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.3%, according to InfoMoney and CNN Brasil on November 6.
MACROBrazil
Industrial output falls 0.8% in September, more than expected
Industrial output fell 0.8% in September from August, according to IBGE, more than the expected 0.4% drop, and has lost 4.1% since May, according to InfoMoney, Agência Brasil and Gazeta do Povo.
MACROBrazil
CNI cuts 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.6%
The National Confederation of Industry cut its 2026 Brazilian GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.6% in its third-quarter outlook released on October 28, according to Agência Brasil, CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense.
MACROBrazil
FGV GDP Monitor estimates 0.5% economic growth in August
FGV Ibre's GDP Monitor, released on October 19, estimates the economy grew 0.5% in August from July, after two months of decline. In the quarter through August, growth was 1.7% from a year earlier, and 1.8% over 12 months, according to Agência Brasil and Correio Braziliense.
MACROBrazil
Focus: market cuts 2026 GDP forecast to 1.83% and keeps IPCA at 5.22%
The Central Bank's Focus survey of October 19 showed the median 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.83%, down from 1.85% a week earlier, and the 2026 IPCA forecast steady at 5.22%, according to Correio Braziliense and Investidor10.
MACROBrazil
IBC-Br rises 0.3% in August, Central Bank says
The Central Bank's Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), seen as a GDP proxy, rose 0.3% in August from July, according to data released on October 16. Bloomberg Línea reports a 0.34% rise, above expectations.
MACROBrazil
Retail sales rise 0.1% in August, below expectations, IBGE says
Retail sales rose 0.1% in August from July, according to IBGE's Monthly Trade Survey released on October 15. The result came in below market expectations.
MACROBrazil
Services volume falls 0.1% in August but is up 2.2% over 12 months, IBGE says
The volume of services in Brazil fell 0.1% in August from July, according to IBGE's Monthly Services Survey released on October 14. Over 12 months, the sector is up 2.2%.
MACROBrazil
IMF cuts Brazil's 2026 growth forecast to 2.2% and raises the global outlook to 3.1%
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Brazil from 2.4% to 2.2% and its 2027 forecast from 2.2% to 1.9%, in the October World Economic Outlook. The global economy forecast for 2026 rose from 3.0% to 3.1%.
MACROBrazil
Anfavea raises 2026 vehicle sales forecast to 15.2% growth and cuts its export outlook
Anfavea raised its 2026 vehicle registration forecast to about 3.1 million units, up 15.2%, and its production forecast to over 2.8 million, up 6.7%. It cut its export forecast, which now projects a 17.7% decline.
MACROBrazil
Manufacturing real revenue falls 3.5% in August, CNI says
Manufacturing real revenue fell 3.5% in August, according to the National Confederation of Industry's Industrial Indicators released on October 7. In July, the indicator had already fallen 2.2%.
MACROBrazil
Focus: economists raise 2026 inflation forecast to 5.01%, a third straight increase, and keep the Selic at 13.50% at year-end
The October 5 Focus survey showed the median 2026 IPCA forecast at 5.01%, a third straight increase and back above 5%. For 2027, the forecast stood at 4.30%. The projected Selic for end-2026 held at 13.50%, with 12.00% for 2027, and 2026 GDP growth moved to 1.85%.
MACROBrazil
Industrial output falls 0.6% in August from July, IBGE says
Brazilian industrial output fell 0.6% in August compared with July, according to IBGE, as reported by Agência Brasil, Correio Braziliense and Poder360 on October 2. According to Agência Brasil, industry fell 1.2% from August 2025, is up 0.8% year to date and stands 1.3% above its February 2020 pre-pandemic level.
MACROBrazil
Vehicle financing reaches 683,900 units in August, up 10.4% and the best result for the month in 15 years, according to B3
Data from Trillia, the B3 lien platform, released on September 22 show 683,928 vehicles financed in August, up 10.4% from August 2025 and the best result for the month since 2011. There were 478,000 light vehicles (350,000 new and 127,000 used), 178,000 motorcycles (up 4.9%) and 27,000 heavy vehicles (up 10.4%). Year to date, 5.136 million vehicles were financed, 10% more than in 2025. New vehicle prices rose 2.7% in August and are down 1.1% over 12 months; used prices are down 3.9% over 12 months.
MACROBrazil
Finance Ministry cuts its 2026 GDP forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and IPCA to 4.9% in the Macrofiscal Bulletin
The Macrofiscal Bulletin of the Economic Policy Secretariat, released on September 22, cut the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and 2027 from 2.5% to 2.3%. The revision is concentrated in services (from 2.4% to 1.8%) and industry (from 2.1% to 1.7%), while agriculture rises from 1.8% to 2.8%. The 2026 IPCA forecast fell from 5.1% to 4.9% and 2027 rose from 3.6% to 3.8%. The SPE cites the weak carry-over from the first half, the lagged transmission of monetary policy and the record share of household income committed to debt service.
MACROBrazil
Copom minutes see elevated inflation risks, back restrictive rates for longer and project 5.2% IPCA for 2026
The minutes of the September 15 and 16 meeting, released on September 22, explain the unanimous quarter-point Selic cut to 13.75% by the slowdown in cycle-sensitive sectors and the loss of momentum in inflation, but state that elevated inflation risks and unanchored expectations require restrictive monetary policy for longer. The committee projects IPCA of 5.2% in 2026, 3.9% in 2027 and 3.2% in the first quarter of 2028, cites higher external uncertainty from Middle East tensions and ties next steps to the path of inflation.
MACROBrazil
CNI survey: industrial output posts the worst August since 2015 and investment intention falls to the lowest since 2020
The CNI Industrial Survey released on September 21 shows the production index at 46.3 points in August, down 4.7 points from July and the worst result for the month since 2015. Investment intention fell 1.3 point in September to 51.3 points, the lowest since August 2020 and the fourth straight decline. Employment stood at 48.2 points, capacity utilization fell to 69% and inventories to 49.5 points. The survey polled 1,403 companies between September 1 and 11.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey cuts the 2026 Selic to 13.50%, lifts IPCA to 4.92% and trims GDP to 1.88%
The September 21 Focus survey, the first reading after the Copom quarter-point cut, moved the median Selic for end-2026 from 13.75% to 13.50%, with 12.00% in 2027 and 10.50% in 2028. The 2026 IPCA projection rose from 4.90% to 4.92%, above the target ceiling, and 2027 stayed at 4.30%. GDP for 2026 slipped from 1.89% to 1.88% and 2027 from 1.45% to 1.43%; the exchange rate stayed at R$ 5.20 for the 14th week.
MACROBrazil
Retail sales fall 0.8% in July, worse than consensus, and reinforce weak activity on the eve of the Copom
Retail sales volume fell 0.8% in July from June, per the IBGE Monthly Retail Survey released on September 15, against a Reuters consensus of a 0.2% drop; versus July 2025 the rise was 1.2%, below the 2.15% expected. Five of eight sectors declined, with furniture and appliances down 4.9%, books and stationery 4.2% and apparel 2.7%, which IBGE attributes to purchases brought forward for the World Cup in May; expanded retail rose 0.4% in the month, and restricted retail is up 1.8% in the year and 1.6% over 12 months.
MACROBrazil
Industrial confidence falls to 44.9 points in September and completes 21 months of pessimism, the longest stretch since 2015
The CNI Industrial Business Confidence Index (ICEI) fell 1.4 point in September to 44.9 points, from 46.3 in August, completing 21 straight months below the 50-point line that separates optimism from pessimism, the longest stretch since the one recorded in 2015 and 2016. The current conditions index fell 2.5 points to 40.2, with the assessment of the Brazilian economy at 33 points (-3.6), and the expectations index slipped 0.9 point to 47.2; the survey polled 1,186 companies between September 1 and 8.
MACROBrazil
Focus: median 2026 IPCA forecast falls to 4.90%, first time below 5%, and the market expects Selic at 13.75% this week
The September 14 Focus survey put the median forecast for 2026 IPCA at 4.90%, from 5.00% the previous week and 5.02% four weeks earlier, the first reading below 5% this year, after the 0.32% deflation in August; the 2027 forecast rose to 4.30%. The market expects a 0.25 point Selic cut to 13.75% at the September 15-16 Copom meeting and sees the rate at 13.75% at end-2026; the median 2026 GDP forecast fell to 1.89% and 2027 to 1.45%, with the dollar projected at R$ 5.20 for the 13th week.
MACROBrazil
Services flat in July, industrial revenue down 2% and Copom options price 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut
Services volume was flat in July versus June and is up 2.4% over 12 months, the lowest since September 2024, per IBGE; real industrial revenue fell 2% in July, down 0.5% year to date, per CNI; and B3's Copom options, based on the September 8 session, price about 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut, from 14% to 13.75%, at the September 15-16 meeting.
MACROBrazil
Vehicle sales rise 22.1% in August, best month since 2013, Fenabrave says
New vehicle registrations totaled 275,094 units in August, up 22.1% from August 2025 and down 1.6% from July, the best August since 2013, per Fenabrave, reported by CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. Year to date, sales reach 1.97 million units, up 18.45%.
MACROBrazil
Industrial output rises 0.2% in July, ending two months of decline, IBGE says
Brazil's industrial output grew 0.2% in July from June, ending two months of decline, but fell 0.5% from July 2025, per IBGE, reported by Agência Brasil, Poder360 and Correio Braziliense.
MACROBrazil
GDP grows 0.5% in Q2 as household consumption falls
Brazil's GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026 versus the first, seasonally adjusted, per IBGE — above the 0.4% consensus cited by InfoMoney. Household consumption fell 0.4% in the period. Future rates dropped after the release as markets firmed Selic-cut bets.
MACROBrazil
IBC-Br falls 0.6% in June, consolidating the quarter-end slowdown
The IBC-Br, the Central Bank's monthly GDP proxy, fell 0.6% in June from May in seasonally adjusted terms, in data released August 17. Excluding agriculture, the decline would be 0.9%.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey holds 2026 IPCA at 5.02% and cuts 2027 GDP for a fourth week
The Focus survey released August 17 held the 2026 IPCA median at 5.02% and cut the 2027 GDP growth forecast from 1.52% to 1.50%, a fourth straight reduction. The 2027 IPCA median edged up to 4.24%.
MACROBrazil
Services hold steady in June and grow 2% year over year
Services volume was unchanged in June from May and rose 2% from June 2025. The sector ended the month 0.3% below its record, combining a high level with signs of moderation.
INFLAÇÃOBrazil
Focus survey lowers its inflation forecast for a sixth week
The median market forecast for 2026 inflation declined again, reaching 5.02%. The growth estimate also fell, while the Selic and dollar forecasts were unchanged from the previous week.