Brazil's corporate and consumer credit deterioration cycle, measured by delinquency, reorganization filings and lending conditions.
Last 90 days
Credit stress moved from isolated cases to the statistics: bank delinquency hit a record in July per the BC, with household defaults at a series high and free-market credit at 6.4% — even with Desenrola 2.0 in effect. The picture aligns with Caixa's provision jump and the risk-mitigation measure the BC is preparing.
Updated November 14, 2026 · 35 verified articles
Market transmission
High delinquency raises funding costs, increases bank provisions, widens private-credit spreads and feeds corporate restructurings.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.Agribusiness groups such as Aprosoja pushed back at Banco do Brasil remarks on rising farm delinquency; the bank issued a note saying 90% of its farm clients are current.
Banco do Brasil posted adjusted net income of R$ 1.27 billion in 3Q26, revised 2026 profit guidance from R$ 18-22 billion to R$ 9-11 billion and cut its payout from 30% to 25%.
Riachuelo, owned by Guararapes, posted net income of about R$ 85 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 61.3% in a year, with revenue of about R$ 2.5 billion, according to Exame and Investidor10.
Casas Bahia postponed release of its third-quarter 2026 results from November 11 to December 10, citing the need for more time tied to its judicial recovery process, according to Money Times and Investidor10.
Porto posted net income of R$ 839 million in the third quarter of 2026 and recurring profit of R$ 713 million, while Porto Bank credit losses reached R$ 843 million, up 48% in a year, according to InfoMoney, Money Times and Investidor10.
Itaú Unibanco earned R$ 12.6 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 6.7% in a year, with a 23.6% return on equity and 90-day delinquency of 2.0%, according to Brazil Journal, NeoFeed and InfoMoney.
Sao Paulo's 2nd Bankruptcy and Judicial Recovery Court on October 21 authorized processing of the judicial recovery of Grupo Casas Bahia and nine other group companies, with debts of about R$ 17.3 billion, according to g1, CNN Brasil and Gazeta do Povo. The ruling does not approve the plan, which still depends on creditors.
The number of businesses in default reached a record 9.3 million in August 2026, up 14.3% from a year earlier, with R$ 244.4 billion in debt across 68.2 million overdue accounts, according to Serasa Experian data reported by UOL and Poder360.
Raízen on October 21 disclosed a proposed private capital increase of at least R$ 3.5 billion, tied to its out-of-court reorganization plan, at R$ 0.25 per share with a minimum subscription of 14 billion shares, according to CNN Brasil and Times Brasil.
Creditors holding about US$ 272 million in 2041 bonds filed on October 21 an involuntary Chapter 11 against Braskem America Finance Company, Braskem's US subsidiary, according to Bloomberg Línea and Investidor10. The filing comes amid the group's restructuring of about US$ 11 billion in debt.
Casas Bahia shareholders approved at an extraordinary meeting the ratification of the judicial recovery filing made in August, according to Investidor10 and Exame. The court has not yet ruled on processing the filing.
Rio de Janeiro's 4th Business Court on October 19 ended the judicial recovery of Grupo Americanas, opened in January 2023 after accounting inconsistencies of about R$ 20 billion came to light. The ruling found the plan's obligations fulfilled and can be appealed, according to Agência Brasil and NeoFeed.
Grupo Ri Happy, owner of the Ri Happy and PBKids chains, filed for out-of-court reorganization to renegotiate R$ 827.4 million in debt, according to InfoMoney and NeoFeed. The company confirmed the filing on October 19 and says part of its creditors already back the plan.
CVM approved the conversion of the registration of Raízen Energia, a Raízen subsidiary, from category B to category A, according to an October 19 company filing reported by CNN Brasil and Money Times. The change is a step in the restructuring tied to the out-of-court reorganization plan and does not by itself mean a share offering.
Agribusiness judicial recovery filings totaled 448 in the second quarter of 2026, down 20.7% from 565 a year earlier, according to a Serasa Experian survey reported by CNN Brasil and Exame. Among individuals, filings fell year on year but rose from the first quarter.
The Central Bank ordered on October 16 the extrajudicial liquidation of Credipaiva, a credit cooperative linked to the Newton Paiva University Center, for serious rule violations and failure to follow Central Bank orders, according to InfoMoney, Folha, Correio Braziliense and Valor.
São Paulo's 3rd Bankruptcy and Restructuring Court approved on October 7 the out-of-court restructuring plan of GPA, owner of Pão de Açúcar. The plan renegotiates about R$ 4.57 billion in unsecured claims.
The Bolsa Família increase, the third phase of Desenrola and the online betting ban, announced in the week before the first round, will require an adjustment of up to R$ 42.3 billion in the 2027 Budget, according to figures presented by the economic team and compiled by the press. The Bolsa Família increase, with the floor rising from R$ 600 to R$ 691, costs R$ 22 billion; Desenrola 3.0, R$ 15 billion; and the end of online betting removes R$ 5.3 billion in expected revenue. The 2027 Budget bill is already in Congress and will be executed by the president-elect.
President Lula signed on September 25 a provisional measure creating the third phase of the Desenrola program, in which the federal government may buy at auction portfolios of debts overdue for two to four and a half years, of up to R$ 10,000 each, and pass the discount on to debtors. Up to R$ 150 billion in debt may be eligible, with a minimum 90% discount; the government set aside R$ 15 billion for the program, according to Planning Minister Bruno Moretti. Caixa and Banco do Brasil may execute the operations, and the timeline calls for a creditor call in November and discounts starting in February 2027.
The Monetary Policy Report released by the central bank on September 24 raised from 79% to 90% the probability of 2026 IPCA inflation ending above the 4.5% target ceiling; for 2027, the chance rose from 28% to 33%. At the report presentation, central bank governor Gabriel Galípolo said he sees aggressive and even predatory credit offers, with household debt and debt service at high levels and rising defaults, and said the central bank is studying measures and will increase frictions in credit granting.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on September 18 that the government is studying a program in which the National Treasury buys old household debts, acquired at auction with steep discounts, to clear debtors' names and banks' balance sheets. The proposal will be presented to President Lula; according to Gazeta do Povo, the plan would target debts older than five years, with support from Emgea, from early 2027 and without compromising the fiscal target.
BTG Pactual became the majority shareholder of Nubank Parque, the Palmeiras stadium formerly called Allianz Parque, through a deal with WTorre, which keeps a relevant stake. The bank takes over arena management through 2044, the value was not disclosed and the deal depends on Cade. Enforce, BTG's credit recovery arm, had bought about R$ 650 million of WTorre debt in 2024, according to Bloomberg Línea and Correio Braziliense.
Governor Celina Leão created, through the Federal District attorney general office, a commission to recover assets and estimate the damage caused to BRB by the Banco Master fraud, with a first meeting within five days and an initial 30 day term. In parallel, the district government confirmed confidential negotiations with foreign investors, including Arab groups, for capital injections into the bank.
Responding to a CVM request after a Veja report, Grupo Casas Bahia said it made no contributions to the IBCB FIDC in the first half of 2026 and that the balance of subordinated quotas rose from R$ 780 million to R$ 1.166 billion due to the result of the quotas themselves, of R$ 386 million. B3 demanded a schedule to bring the shares back into compliance, as they have traded below R$ 1 since July 21.
Issuance in the Brazilian capital market totalled R$ 48.8 billion in August, 16% below the R$ 58 billion of August 2025, according to Anbima. In the year to date the volume reaches R$ 485 billion, 7.1% above the same period of 2025. Debentures fell 35.2% from July while FIDCs more than doubled.
The Oncoclínicas board elected on September 14 Maurício Hasson as chief financial and investor relations officer, replacing Isaac Quintino, who had held the posts on an interim basis since April 24 and leaves the company after the transition, following eight years at the group; Hasson has more than 14 years in CFO roles, worked at Oncoclínicas itself between 2015 and 2016 and comes from investment banking in Brazil and the United States. Bloomberg Línea notes it is the second CFO change in under a year and that the move comes amid the out-of-court restructuring of R$ 5.1 billion in debt, with JPMorgan citing the search for a profile to lead the process.
A Federal Police report released on September 11, after the Supreme Court ordered secrecy lifted, concludes that not a single credit in the portfolios Banco Master sold to BRB could be validated with real backing: BRB transferred R$ 12.2 billion to Master between December 2024 and May 2025, R$ 4.05 billion of it after Central Bank questioning, despite formal warnings and contrary technical opinions. The Federal Police point to 182,000 operations concentrated in just 12 standardised amounts and more than 290,000 of 358,000 clients repeated from earlier assignments; those under investigation deny wrongdoing. September 13 update: the Federal Police total about R$ 17 billion in fictitious operations, with 2,700 automatically generated powers of attorney, and R$ 146.5 million in bribes to BRB's former president; the bank says it is a victim and cites a forensic audit.
The share of financial institutions naming fiscal risk as the biggest threat to system stability rose from 27% in May to 34% in August, per the Central Bank's Financial Stability Survey released on September 3 and covered by CNN Brasil and Poder360. The survey heard 117 institutions between July 2 and 28; default risk ranks second, per Poder360.
The central bank ordered on September 3 the extrajudicial liquidation of Trustee DTVM and Banvox DTVM, brokerages linked to Banco Master through asset management services, for violating financial system rules, per Money Times, Bloomberg Línea and Correio Braziliense. With them, the central bank reaches 17 liquidations in 2026, the most in a year since 2002, per InfoMoney and Valor.
New vehicle registrations totaled 275,094 units in August, up 22.1% from August 2025 and down 1.6% from July, the best August since 2013, per Fenabrave, reported by CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. Year to date, sales reach 1.97 million units, up 18.45%.
The Prosecutor General's Office signed a plea agreement with João Carlos Mansur, founder and former owner of Reag Investimentos, and sent the material to the Supreme Court for ratification by Justice André Mendonça, per Money Times and InfoMoney. It is the first cooperation deal sealed in the Banco Master and Daniel Vorcaro investigation.
Chilli Beans is negotiating with creditor banks to extend maturities and cut interest on its debt and hired André Dela Togna, a former Galeazzi partner, as vice president from October 1, per InfoMoney and Bloomberg Línea. The company denies any discussion of judicial recovery.
September 5 update: the Federal District government filed suit at the Supreme Court to force the Union to guarantee the FGC loan to BRB, per Correio Braziliense, Valor, Estadão and Poder360. BRB has had overdue financial statements since March 2026, and the delay stalls the release of the R$ 6.6 billion loan from deposit-guarantee fund FGC, which requires access to the statements before disbursing, per CNN Brasil and Bloomberg Línea. Per CNN, the Fux ruling keeping the TJBA's R$ 394 million monthly inflows eases but does not solve the liquidity squeeze.
Bank credit delinquency hit a record in July, per Central Bank data released August 28, with household defaults at the highest level on record. According to InfoMoney, the free-market credit rate reached 6.4%, a record for the series started in 2011. The rise comes with the Desenrola 2.0 program in effect.
Caixa reported on August 26 a recurring profit of R$ 3.9 billion for Q2, up 5.9% year-over-year. Its housing loan book topped R$ 1 trillion for the first time. According to CNN Brasil, provisions jumped 97.6% to R$ 7 billion and 90-day delinquency rose to 3.64%.
Banco do Brasil began renegotiating rural debt on August 26 under MP 1,376, with a potentially eligible book of about R$100 billion and some 113,000 agribusiness clients. The MP authorizes special lines to restructure or settle debts of producers who suffered losses in two or more harvests between 2019 and 2025.
Braskem filed for out-of-court reorganization on August 24, at São Paulo's 2nd Bankruptcy and Reorganization Court, on the day its creditor-protection injunction expired. Per NeoFeed, the debt to be restructured is US$10.9 billion. InfoMoney recorded that B3 will remove BRKM3 and BRKM5 from 18 index portfolios, including the Ibovespa, from August 25.
A Serasa Experian survey covered on August 17 points to a record 9.1 million companies in arrears in June, with R$232.9 billion in debt, the highest levels in the series started in 2016.