Credit Stress

Measures announced ahead of the election require an adjustment of up to R$ 42.3 billion in the 2027 Budget, with Bolsa Família, Desenrola and the betting ban

The Bolsa Família increase, the third phase of Desenrola and the online betting ban, announced in the week before the first round, will require an adjustment of up to R$ 42.3 billion in the 2027 Budget, according to figures presented by the economic team and compiled by the press. The Bolsa Família increase, with the floor rising from R$ 600 to R$ 691, costs R$ 22 billion; Desenrola 3.0, R$ 15 billion; and the end of online betting removes R$ 5.3 billion in expected revenue. The 2027 Budget bill is already in Congress and will be executed by the president-elect.

3 sourcesSep 26, 2026

Government creates the third phase of Desenrola, in which the federal government buys up to R$ 150 billion in household debt with a minimum 90% discount

President Lula signed on September 25 a provisional measure creating the third phase of the Desenrola program, in which the federal government may buy at auction portfolios of debts overdue for two to four and a half years, of up to R$ 10,000 each, and pass the discount on to debtors. Up to R$ 150 billion in debt may be eligible, with a minimum 90% discount; the government set aside R$ 15 billion for the program, according to Planning Minister Bruno Moretti. Caixa and Banco do Brasil may execute the operations, and the timeline calls for a creditor call in November and discounts starting in February 2027.

3 sourcesSep 25, 2026

Central bank sees a 90% chance of inflation breaching the target ceiling in 2026, and Galípolo warns of predatory credit offers

The Monetary Policy Report released by the central bank on September 24 raised from 79% to 90% the probability of 2026 IPCA inflation ending above the 4.5% target ceiling; for 2027, the chance rose from 28% to 33%. At the report presentation, central bank governor Gabriel Galípolo said he sees aggressive and even predatory credit offers, with household debt and debt service at high levels and rising defaults, and said the central bank is studying measures and will increase frictions in credit granting.

7 sourcesSep 24, 2026

Durigan says government weighs having the Treasury buy old household debts at a discount via auctions

Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on September 18 that the government is studying a program in which the National Treasury buys old household debts, acquired at auction with steep discounts, to clear debtors' names and banks' balance sheets. The proposal will be presented to President Lula; according to Gazeta do Povo, the plan would target debts older than five years, with support from Emgea, from early 2027 and without compromising the fiscal target.

2 sourcesSep 19, 2026

BTG Pactual becomes majority shareholder of Nubank Parque in a deal with WTorre and takes over stadium management through 2044

BTG Pactual became the majority shareholder of Nubank Parque, the Palmeiras stadium formerly called Allianz Parque, through a deal with WTorre, which keeps a relevant stake. The bank takes over arena management through 2044, the value was not disclosed and the deal depends on Cade. Enforce, BTG's credit recovery arm, had bought about R$ 650 million of WTorre debt in 2024, according to Bloomberg Línea and Correio Braziliense.

2 sourcesSep 18, 2026

Federal District government creates a commission to recover BRB assets in the Master case and negotiates capital with foreign investors

Governor Celina Leão created, through the Federal District attorney general office, a commission to recover assets and estimate the damage caused to BRB by the Banco Master fraud, with a first meeting within five days and an initial 30 day term. In parallel, the district government confirmed confidential negotiations with foreign investors, including Arab groups, for capital injections into the bank.

4 sourcesSep 17, 2026

Casas Bahia tells CVM it made no contributions to the FIDC in the first half and gets a B3 demand over shares below R$ 1

Responding to a CVM request after a Veja report, Grupo Casas Bahia said it made no contributions to the IBCB FIDC in the first half of 2026 and that the balance of subordinated quotas rose from R$ 780 million to R$ 1.166 billion due to the result of the quotas themselves, of R$ 386 million. B3 demanded a schedule to bring the shares back into compliance, as they have traded below R$ 1 since July 21.

2 sourcesSep 16, 2026

Capital market offerings total R$ 48.8 billion in August, down 16% in a year, Anbima says

Issuance in the Brazilian capital market totalled R$ 48.8 billion in August, 16% below the R$ 58 billion of August 2025, according to Anbima. In the year to date the volume reaches R$ 485 billion, 7.1% above the same period of 2025. Debentures fell 35.2% from July while FIDCs more than doubled.

2 sourcesSep 16, 2026

Oncoclínicas replaces its CFO and elects Maurício Hasson in place of interim Isaac Quintino amid the restructuring

The Oncoclínicas board elected on September 14 Maurício Hasson as chief financial and investor relations officer, replacing Isaac Quintino, who had held the posts on an interim basis since April 24 and leaves the company after the transition, following eight years at the group; Hasson has more than 14 years in CFO roles, worked at Oncoclínicas itself between 2015 and 2016 and comes from investment banking in Brazil and the United States. Bloomberg Línea notes it is the second CFO change in under a year and that the move comes amid the out-of-court restructuring of R$ 5.1 billion in debt, with JPMorgan citing the search for a profile to lead the process.

3 sourcesSep 14, 2026

Federal Police conclude that not a single credit in the R$ 12.2 billion portfolios Master sold to BRB could be confirmed

A Federal Police report released on September 11, after the Supreme Court ordered secrecy lifted, concludes that not a single credit in the portfolios Banco Master sold to BRB could be validated with real backing: BRB transferred R$ 12.2 billion to Master between December 2024 and May 2025, R$ 4.05 billion of it after Central Bank questioning, despite formal warnings and contrary technical opinions. The Federal Police point to 182,000 operations concentrated in just 12 standardised amounts and more than 290,000 of 358,000 clients repeated from earlier assignments; those under investigation deny wrongdoing. September 13 update: the Federal Police total about R$ 17 billion in fictitious operations, with 2,700 automatically generated powers of attorney, and R$ 146.5 million in bribes to BRB's former president; the bank says it is a victim and cites a forensic audit.

8 sourcesSep 11, 2026

Fiscal risk is the top fear of 34% of financial institutions in the central bank's stability survey

The share of financial institutions naming fiscal risk as the biggest threat to system stability rose from 27% in May to 34% in August, per the Central Bank's Financial Stability Survey released on September 3 and covered by CNN Brasil and Poder360. The survey heard 117 institutions between July 2 and 28; default risk ranks second, per Poder360.

2 sourcesSep 03, 2026

Central bank orders liquidation of Trustee and Banvox, brokerages linked to Master

The central bank ordered on September 3 the extrajudicial liquidation of Trustee DTVM and Banvox DTVM, brokerages linked to Banco Master through asset management services, for violating financial system rules, per Money Times, Bloomberg Línea and Correio Braziliense. With them, the central bank reaches 17 liquidations in 2026, the most in a year since 2002, per InfoMoney and Valor.

5 sourcesSep 03, 2026

Vehicle sales rise 22.1% in August, best month since 2013, Fenabrave says

New vehicle registrations totaled 275,094 units in August, up 22.1% from August 2025 and down 1.6% from July, the best August since 2013, per Fenabrave, reported by CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. Year to date, sales reach 1.97 million units, up 18.45%.

2 sourcesSep 02, 2026

Prosecutors seal first plea deal in Master case with Reag founder

The Prosecutor General's Office signed a plea agreement with João Carlos Mansur, founder and former owner of Reag Investimentos, and sent the material to the Supreme Court for ratification by Justice André Mendonça, per Money Times and InfoMoney. It is the first cooperation deal sealed in the Banco Master and Daniel Vorcaro investigation.

2 sourcesSep 02, 2026

Chilli Beans seeks deal with banks to extend debt and denies judicial recovery

Chilli Beans is negotiating with creditor banks to extend maturities and cut interest on its debt and hired André Dela Togna, a former Galeazzi partner, as vice president from October 1, per InfoMoney and Bloomberg Línea. The company denies any discussion of judicial recovery.

2 sourcesSep 01, 2026

BRB overdue financials stall R$ 6.6 billion FGC loan

September 5 update: the Federal District government filed suit at the Supreme Court to force the Union to guarantee the FGC loan to BRB, per Correio Braziliense, Valor, Estadão and Poder360. BRB has had overdue financial statements since March 2026, and the delay stalls the release of the R$ 6.6 billion loan from deposit-guarantee fund FGC, which requires access to the statements before disbursing, per CNN Brasil and Bloomberg Línea. Per CNN, the Fux ruling keeping the TJBA's R$ 394 million monthly inflows eases but does not solve the liquidity squeeze.

10 sourcesSep 01, 2026

Bank delinquency hits record in July, Central Bank data show

Bank credit delinquency hit a record in July, per Central Bank data released August 28, with household defaults at the highest level on record. According to InfoMoney, the free-market credit rate reached 6.4%, a record for the series started in 2011. The rise comes with the Desenrola 2.0 program in effect.

3 sourcesAug 29, 2026

Caixa posts R$ 3.9 billion Q2 profit as housing loans top R$ 1 trillion

Caixa reported on August 26 a recurring profit of R$ 3.9 billion for Q2, up 5.9% year-over-year. Its housing loan book topped R$ 1 trillion for the first time. According to CNN Brasil, provisions jumped 97.6% to R$ 7 billion and 90-day delinquency rose to 3.64%.

7 sourcesAug 28, 2026

Banco do Brasil starts rural debt renegotiation with R$100 billion eligible book

Banco do Brasil began renegotiating rural debt on August 26 under MP 1,376, with a potentially eligible book of about R$100 billion and some 113,000 agribusiness clients. The MP authorizes special lines to restructure or settle debts of producers who suffered losses in two or more harvests between 2019 and 2025.

2 sourcesAug 26, 2026