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Geopolitical risk

Risk that conflicts or tensions between countries alter trade, energy, logistics and confidence.

19articles
29material mentions
12connections
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AssetOil15 shared articles ↗EconomyUnited States6 shared articles ↗OrganizationPetrobras5 shared articles ↗ThemeTrade tariffs2 shared articles ↗OrganizationBanco Master2 shared articles ↗IndexIbovespa2 shared articles ↗OrganizationBRB2 shared articles ↗AssetIVVB111 shared article ↗OrganizationECB1 shared article ↗OrganizationEneva1 shared article ↗AssetU.S. dollar1 shared article ↗AssetPETR41 shared article ↗

Last 90 days

What sources are saying

The Hormuz crisis saw its first concrete de-escalation: Iran and Oman agreed on August 25 to a temporary maritime corridor with mine clearing, and oil gave back the escalation premium. The arrangement is bilateral and provisional — the US remains outside, sanctions remain in force and the Qatar-mediated US-Iran track stays open.

Updated September 27, 2026 · 18 verified articles

Market transmission

Why it matters

Geopolitical shocks can raise commodities, freight costs, inflation, the dollar and risk premiums.

Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.

Articles in chronological order

19
MACROGlobal

Trump rejects Iran seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and says the deal would be unacceptable

US President Donald Trump said on September 26 that he rejected Iran proposal to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The plan, presented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York, included a seven-day ceasefire, an end to the US naval blockade, suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil and the release of frozen assets. Trump said Iran wants a deal but that one would be unacceptable, and said the US has total control of the strait.

4 sourcesSep 26, 2026
MACROGlobal

Iran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure; Brent falls to US$ 99 and Trump speaks of productive talks

An Iranian official told Kyodo News on September 22 that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US takes initial steps to ease military pressure, and security chief Mohsen Rezaei told Al Jazeera that Tehran sent its conditions to mediators. Trump said at the UN that oil flow in the Gulf is higher than at any time since the war began and later said a US delegation met for more than three hours with Iranian representatives, in talks he called very productive. November Brent fell 1.09% to US$ 99.25, a fifth straight decline, and WTI dropped 2% to US$ 90.52.

3 sourcesSep 22, 2026
MACROBrazil

In New York, Lula says he will only apply the Reciprocity Law if there is no deal with the US and likens Trump to an emperor

In an interview with CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour on September 21, on the eve of the UN General Assembly, Lula said Brazil will not apply the Reciprocity Law while it is negotiating with the United States and will only do so if there is no deal on tariffs. He said the tariff hike was based on lies, cited Brazil's trade deficit with the US, denied wanting a tariff war and described Trump's style as that of an emperor ruling by the law of the strongest.

3 sourcesSep 21, 2026
CORPORATEBrazil

Halliburton and Eneva sign a memorandum to assess development opportunities in Venezuela

Halliburton announced on September 21 the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Eneva to identify and pursue development opportunities in Venezuela, expanding the relationship the companies already have in Brazil. According to Valor, the agreement is to assess business development in the country. According to Reuters, via InfoMoney, Halliburton also signed a memorandum with WESCA for oil and gas field evaluation and development planning, the agreements are non-binding and the company cites regulatory changes in Venezuela that may open room for foreign investment.

2 sourcesSep 21, 2026
MACROGlobal

Ukraine launches its largest drone attack on Moscow, hits the capital's refinery and leaves deaths on the last day of the Russian election

Between September 19 and 20 Ukraine launched the largest drone attack ever recorded on the Moscow region. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 450 drones aimed at the capital were shot down, and Russia says it downed more than 1,600 since Saturday. The Moscow refinery, which processed 11.6 million tonnes of oil in 2024, was hit and caught fire; a residential building was damaged and 400 people were evacuated. Coverage reports two to three deaths in the region. The attack came on the last day of Russia's parliamentary election and despite the deal announced by Trump on not striking energy infrastructure.

4 sourcesSep 20, 2026
MACROGlobal

Trump signs Russia sanctions law authorizing tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian oil

President Donald Trump signed on September 18 the Russia sanctions law named after Senator Lindsey Graham, passed by the House on September 16 by 262 votes to 159 and by the Senate 86 to 11. The law imposes mandatory sanctions on Putin, senior officials, oligarchs, state companies and the shadow tanker fleet, and gives the government the power to apply tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, including China and India, at the White House's discretion.

5 sourcesSep 18, 2026
MACROGlobal

Oil climbs more than 3% as a drone-hit Saudi pipeline stays shut and the Oman meeting on Hormuz is postponed

Oil opened the week up more than 3% on September 14, with Brent back above US$ 100 and quoted at US$ 107.80 in the Brasília morning, after drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, about 4% of global supply, with port stocks for five to seven days; the Oman meeting between Gulf countries and Iran on Hormuz routes, scheduled for September 14, was postponed, and a ship was hit in the strait. Iran intends to announce a temporary route through the strait under a deal with Oman, keeping control over which ships pass.

6 sourcesSep 14, 2026
MACROGlobal

Oil falls 2.8% but ends the week up 9%, as the IEA cuts forecasts and Saudi supply drops to a three-decade low

November Brent fell 2.81% on September 11 to US$ 104.61 and WTI 2.3% to US$ 100.05, ending five and eight straight gains, after Iran signalled talks on safe Hormuz routes with Gulf countries in Oman on September 14; on the week both contracts rose between 8.65% and 9.37%. The IEA cut its 2026 forecasts to a 2.5 million barrel-a-day drop in consumption (from 1.6 million) and a 5.7 million drop in supply (from 4.3 million), to 100.7 million bpd, and said Saudi supply fell 2.3 million bpd in August to 6.0 million, the lowest in more than three decades, after Houthi and pro-Iran militia attacks on Jazan, Yanbu and Abqaiq.

8 sourcesSep 11, 2026
MACROGlobal

ECB raises rates by 25 basis points in a unanimous decision on Middle East inflation pressures

The European Central Bank raised its three rates by 25 basis points on September 10, effective September 16, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, refinancing to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, to curb inflation pressures renewed by the Middle East conflict; Christine Lagarde said the decision was unanimous and easy, and the ECB projects 3.0% inflation in 2026, returning to the 2% target only at the end of 2027. European stocks fell, with the Stoxx 600 at its lowest since July 8.

3 sourcesSep 10, 2026
MACROGlobal

Brent settles above US$ 101 as the US sinks Iranian tankers and ships come under fresh attack in Hormuz

US forces hit Iranian tankers loaded with crude, ten per CENTCOM as cited by InfoMoney and five destroyed per Bloomberg Línea and Money Times, and fresh attacks on ships were recorded near Hormuz, at least three per UKMTO and ten per Iran; Brent topped US$ 101 for the first time since July, in a fourth straight day of gains, and the Ibovespa fell 0.93% on risk aversion. September 10 update: November Brent rose 6.34% to US$ 107.63, the highest since May, as the Houthis seized the port of Mocha; Wall Street fell and the 10-year Treasury hit 4.954%, the highest since 2023.

9 sourcesSep 09, 2026
MACROGlobal

Iran announces a no-go zone in the Gulf after the US hits three tankers, and Hormuz traffic falls to its lowest since May

Mohsen Rezaei, of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on September 6 the country will declare in the coming days a no-go zone in the Gulf, starting where the US blockade begins, with sanctions on ships crossing it, per CNN Brasil and Exame. The announcement came a day after US Central Command reported strikes on three Iranian tankers, one near Kharg Island, per CNN Brasil. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to about 10 ships a day in the ten days through September 7, the lowest since May, per Kpler data cited by CNN Brasil, and Brent rose 0.8% to above US$ 97.

6 sourcesSep 07, 2026
MACROGlobal

OPEC+ keeps October output at September levels and sets next meeting for October 4

Seven OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided at a virtual meeting on September 6 to keep October output at the levels planned for September, per CNN Brasil, O Globo, Poder360 and Money Times. Saudi Arabia stays at 10.478 million barrels a day and Russia at 9.949 million, per CNN Brasil; the group reaffirmed the Declaration of Cooperation and set the next monthly meeting for October 4.

4 sourcesSep 06, 2026
MACROGlobal

Pentagon buys 35% of Betancourt's NABEP and secures preferential US access to Venezuelan oil

The Pentagon, through its Office of Strategic Capital, acquired 35% of North American Blue Energy Partners, a company tied to Venezuelan billionaire Alejandro Betancourt with stakes in 17 Venezuelan oil fields, per InfoMoney; g1 records the Venezuelan oil deal on September 5. Per InfoMoney, the State Department may buy 20% of NABEP's oil at cost, with preferential access to the rest.

2 sourcesSep 05, 2026
EMPRESASBrazil

Prosecutors seek to void police report on Vorcaro and Moraes and shelve threat complaint

The Prosecutor General's Office asked Justice André Mendonça to void the Federal Police report that identified messages between Daniel Vorcaro and Alexandre de Moraes, arguing that an inquiry into a justice would require authorization from the Supreme Court's full bench, and backed shelving the deposition in which Vorcaro reported threats, for lack of evidence, per Agência Brasil and Exame.

3 sourcesSep 02, 2026