Risk that conflicts or tensions between countries alter trade, energy, logistics and confidence.
Last 90 days
The Hormuz crisis saw its first concrete de-escalation: Iran and Oman agreed on August 25 to a temporary maritime corridor with mine clearing, and oil gave back the escalation premium. The arrangement is bilateral and provisional — the US remains outside, sanctions remain in force and the Qatar-mediated US-Iran track stays open.
Updated October 27, 2026 · 21 verified articles
Market transmission
Geopolitical shocks can raise commodities, freight costs, inflation, the dollar and risk premiums.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.US President Donald Trump said on October 26 that the Brazilian election looked rigged, questioning the extension of voting hours, and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin called the remark mistaken, according to Agência Brasil, Gazeta do Povo and Money Times.
December Brent crude closed up 1.84% at US$ 106.65 a barrel on October 12, and November WTI rose 2.06% to US$ 93.74. Sources attribute the rise to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the lack of a ceasefire in the Ukraine war.
A missile hit King Khalid airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on October 10, killing at least 12. The airport halted operations and flights were diverted. The attack is attributed to Yemen's Houthis, and the Saudi coalition promised a response.
US President Donald Trump said on September 26 that he rejected Iran proposal to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The plan, presented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York, included a seven-day ceasefire, an end to the US naval blockade, suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil and the release of frozen assets. Trump said Iran wants a deal but that one would be unacceptable, and said the US has total control of the strait.
An Iranian official told Kyodo News on September 22 that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US takes initial steps to ease military pressure, and security chief Mohsen Rezaei told Al Jazeera that Tehran sent its conditions to mediators. Trump said at the UN that oil flow in the Gulf is higher than at any time since the war began and later said a US delegation met for more than three hours with Iranian representatives, in talks he called very productive. November Brent fell 1.09% to US$ 99.25, a fifth straight decline, and WTI dropped 2% to US$ 90.52.
In an interview with CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour on September 21, on the eve of the UN General Assembly, Lula said Brazil will not apply the Reciprocity Law while it is negotiating with the United States and will only do so if there is no deal on tariffs. He said the tariff hike was based on lies, cited Brazil's trade deficit with the US, denied wanting a tariff war and described Trump's style as that of an emperor ruling by the law of the strongest.
Halliburton announced on September 21 the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Eneva to identify and pursue development opportunities in Venezuela, expanding the relationship the companies already have in Brazil. According to Valor, the agreement is to assess business development in the country. According to Reuters, via InfoMoney, Halliburton also signed a memorandum with WESCA for oil and gas field evaluation and development planning, the agreements are non-binding and the company cites regulatory changes in Venezuela that may open room for foreign investment.
Between September 19 and 20 Ukraine launched the largest drone attack ever recorded on the Moscow region. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 450 drones aimed at the capital were shot down, and Russia says it downed more than 1,600 since Saturday. The Moscow refinery, which processed 11.6 million tonnes of oil in 2024, was hit and caught fire; a residential building was damaged and 400 people were evacuated. Coverage reports two to three deaths in the region. The attack came on the last day of Russia's parliamentary election and despite the deal announced by Trump on not striking energy infrastructure.
President Donald Trump signed on September 18 the Russia sanctions law named after Senator Lindsey Graham, passed by the House on September 16 by 262 votes to 159 and by the Senate 86 to 11. The law imposes mandatory sanctions on Putin, senior officials, oligarchs, state companies and the shadow tanker fleet, and gives the government the power to apply tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, including China and India, at the White House's discretion.
Oil opened the week up more than 3% on September 14, with Brent back above US$ 100 and quoted at US$ 107.80 in the Brasília morning, after drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, about 4% of global supply, with port stocks for five to seven days; the Oman meeting between Gulf countries and Iran on Hormuz routes, scheduled for September 14, was postponed, and a ship was hit in the strait. Iran intends to announce a temporary route through the strait under a deal with Oman, keeping control over which ships pass.
November Brent fell 2.81% on September 11 to US$ 104.61 and WTI 2.3% to US$ 100.05, ending five and eight straight gains, after Iran signalled talks on safe Hormuz routes with Gulf countries in Oman on September 14; on the week both contracts rose between 8.65% and 9.37%. The IEA cut its 2026 forecasts to a 2.5 million barrel-a-day drop in consumption (from 1.6 million) and a 5.7 million drop in supply (from 4.3 million), to 100.7 million bpd, and said Saudi supply fell 2.3 million bpd in August to 6.0 million, the lowest in more than three decades, after Houthi and pro-Iran militia attacks on Jazan, Yanbu and Abqaiq.
The European Central Bank raised its three rates by 25 basis points on September 10, effective September 16, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, refinancing to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, to curb inflation pressures renewed by the Middle East conflict; Christine Lagarde said the decision was unanimous and easy, and the ECB projects 3.0% inflation in 2026, returning to the 2% target only at the end of 2027. European stocks fell, with the Stoxx 600 at its lowest since July 8.
US forces hit Iranian tankers loaded with crude, ten per CENTCOM as cited by InfoMoney and five destroyed per Bloomberg Línea and Money Times, and fresh attacks on ships were recorded near Hormuz, at least three per UKMTO and ten per Iran; Brent topped US$ 101 for the first time since July, in a fourth straight day of gains, and the Ibovespa fell 0.93% on risk aversion. September 10 update: November Brent rose 6.34% to US$ 107.63, the highest since May, as the Houthis seized the port of Mocha; Wall Street fell and the 10-year Treasury hit 4.954%, the highest since 2023.
Brent settled on September 7 near US$ 97, with a high of US$ 98.06, the highest since June, and moved toward US$ 100 on September 8 after Houthis hit facilities in four Saudi cities and the US-Iran escalation curtailed traffic in Hormuz.
Mohsen Rezaei, of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on September 6 the country will declare in the coming days a no-go zone in the Gulf, starting where the US blockade begins, with sanctions on ships crossing it, per CNN Brasil and Exame. The announcement came a day after US Central Command reported strikes on three Iranian tankers, one near Kharg Island, per CNN Brasil. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to about 10 ships a day in the ten days through September 7, the lowest since May, per Kpler data cited by CNN Brasil, and Brent rose 0.8% to above US$ 97.
Seven OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided at a virtual meeting on September 6 to keep October output at the levels planned for September, per CNN Brasil, O Globo, Poder360 and Money Times. Saudi Arabia stays at 10.478 million barrels a day and Russia at 9.949 million, per CNN Brasil; the group reaffirmed the Declaration of Cooperation and set the next monthly meeting for October 4.
The Pentagon, through its Office of Strategic Capital, acquired 35% of North American Blue Energy Partners, a company tied to Venezuelan billionaire Alejandro Betancourt with stakes in 17 Venezuelan oil fields, per InfoMoney; g1 records the Venezuelan oil deal on September 5. Per InfoMoney, the State Department may buy 20% of NABEP's oil at cost, with preferential access to the rest.
The Prosecutor General's Office asked Justice André Mendonça to void the Federal Police report that identified messages between Daniel Vorcaro and Alexandre de Moraes, arguing that an inquiry into a justice would require authorization from the Supreme Court's full bench, and backed shelving the deposition in which Vorcaro reported threats, for lack of evidence, per Agência Brasil and Exame.
A Federal Police report with messages extracted from Daniel Vorcaro's phone shows the former Banco Master owner authorized credit cards with R$ 300,000 limits for Justice Alexandre de Moraes's two children, at the request of the justice's wife's law firm, per Gazeta do Povo and g1. The firm says the cards were never used.
The US struck an Iranian facility on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday (30th), and US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain reported retaliatory Iranian attacks — the first direct exchange of hostilities in about a month, per CNN Brasil and the Reuters dispatch carried by InfoMoney and Money Times. Oil rose more than 2% on Monday, with Brent back around US$ 90.
Oil gave back the escalation's gains: Brent fell 3.61% to US$87.27 and WTI 3.12% to US$82.36 on August 25, after Iran and Oman struck a deal for a joint temporary maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, with mine-clearing operations. The US is not part of the deal and the sanctions announced the prior week remain in force.
Oil settled above $85 as markets assessed the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In Brazil, the dollar and Ibovespa ended the session in opposite directions amid greater global caution.