MACROGlobal
Fed holds rates at 3.75% to 4% with two votes for a hike
The Federal Reserve held the US policy rate at 3.75% to 4% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two members favoring a 0.25 point hike, according to Bloomberg Línea and CNN Brasil.
AssetsAsset
U.S. dollar
Exchange-rate relationship between the U.S. dollar and the Brazilian real.
28articles
35material mentions
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Last 90 days
What sources are saying
The dollar fell 0.93% on August 21 to R$5.144, tracking US rate relief and the Ibovespa's recovery after the eleven-session losing streak. The previous week the currency had topped R$5.21 at the peak of the stress.
Updated October 29, 2026 · 23 verified articles
Market transmission
Why it matters
Foreign exchange changes BRL returns, dollar-linked revenue and costs, inflation and financial conditions.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.Articles in chronological order
28MACROBrazil
Ibovespa falls 13.88% and dollar rises 8.21% in session with circuit breaker after Lula reelection
The Ibovespa closed down 13.88% at 176,608.23 points on October 26, and the dollar rose 8.21% to R$ 5.4027, in a session that triggered a circuit breaker, the first since 2020, on the first trading day after Lula reelection, according to Agência Brasil, Exame and CNN Brasil.
MACROBrazil
Brazilian real, EWZ and ADRs plunge abroad after Lula reelection
After Lula reelection, EWZ, the main Brazil ETF in New York, was down nearly 20% in off-hours trading, the real was losing about 10% in CME contracts and Petrobras and Itaú ADRs were down more than 15%, according to CNN Brasil, InfoMoney, Exame and Bloomberg Línea.
MACROBrazil
Quaest shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44% in the runoff
The Quaest poll released on October 21 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44% of runoff voting intentions, a statistical tie. That day the Ibovespa fell 0.86% to 206,495 points and the dollar rose 0.17% to R$ 5.027, according to InfoMoney, Poder360 and Investidor10.
MACROBrazil
Real gains about 10% against the dollar in 2026, the third-largest annual rise since 2010
The real has gained about 10% against the dollar in 2026 through October 7, based on the PTAX rate, according to an Elos Ayta survey. If the year ended now, it would be the currency's third-largest annual gain since 2010, behind 2016 and 2025.
MACROGlobal
Fed minutes show most officials see another rate hike likely by year-end, with no set date
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, released on October 7, showed most participants see another rate hike as likely appropriate by year-end, without indicating at which meeting. New York stocks closed lower after the release.
MACROBrazil
Trade balance posts a US$ 7.74 billion surplus in September, more than double a year earlier
Brazil's trade balance posted a US$ 7.74 billion surplus in September, according to Development, Industry, Trade and Services Ministry data released on October 6. Exports totaled US$ 34.4 billion and imports US$ 26.7 billion. In September 2025 the balance was US$ 3.14 billion.
MACROBrazil
Ibovespa jumps 7.7% to a record close of 206,911 points and the dollar falls about 4% to R$ 5.00 in the first session after the first round
The Ibovespa closed Monday, October 5, at 206,911.89 points, up 7.70% and a record close, its first time above 200,000 points. The dollar fell about 4.1% and closed near R$ 5.00. It was the first session after the first round, in which Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula; banks and Petrobras led the gains.
MACROBrazil
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the first round with about 47% of valid votes and faces Lula in an October 25 runoff
With more than 99.9% of polling sections counted, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had about 47% of valid votes and Lula (PT) about 45%. The two face each other in an October 25 runoff. Flávio beat election-eve polls that had Lula ahead, and abstention reached 21.07% of the electorate.
MACROGlobal
US creates fewer jobs than expected in September, and unemployment rises to 4.2%
The US economy created fewer jobs than expected in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, according to the jobs report released on October 2, as reported by InfoMoney and UOL. According to InfoMoney, there were 29,000 jobs, against a forecast of about 90,000, and August data was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000.
MACROBrazil
External accounts post a US$ 5.1 billion deficit in August, and direct investment in the country totals US$ 7.4 billion
Brazil current account posted a US$ 5.1 billion deficit in August, against US$ 3.8 billion a year earlier, according to central bank data released on September 28. Over 12 months, the deficit totals US$ 63 billion, or 2.47% of GDP. Direct investment in the country totaled US$ 7.4 billion in the month and US$ 86.6 billion over 12 months, 3.39% of GDP, enough to finance the external gap. The trade balance posted a US$ 6.6 billion surplus, but the services deficit rose 28.2%.
MACROBrazil
CNT/MDA: Lula has 47.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro 40% in the runoff, a lead outside the margin three weeks before the election
The CNT/MDA poll released on September 15 shows Lula with 47.3% against 40.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, with 10.2% blank and null and 2.5% undecided, a 7.3 point lead outside the 2.2 point margin; in the August round the score was 48.0% to 39.1%. Lula also beats Cury (45.3% to 38.4%), Caiado (46.4% to 37.3%), Zema (47.7% to 34.5%) and Renan Santos (47.3% to 33.9%); in the prompted first round he has 40.5% against 30.4% for Flávio, per Gazeta do Povo. There were 2,002 in-person interviews between September 9 and 13, TSE registration BR-06902/2026.
MACROGlobal
10-year Treasury tops 5% for the first time since 2023 and Wall Street falls on the eve of the Fed
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose above 5% on September 14, to about 5.01%, for the first time since October 2023, when it spent a single day above the mark, driven by hotter-than-expected August inflation, oil near US$ 110 and government and corporate financing needs; New York stocks closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.48%, the Dow 0.29% and the Nasdaq 0.56%, and the market moved to price about a 90% chance of a Fed hike on September 16, the first in three years.
MACROBrazil
Nexus poll: Lula has 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro 37% in the first round, and 47% to 46% in the runoff
The Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual and released on September 14 shows Lula with 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 37% in the prompted first round, followed by Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (2%); in the runoff, Lula has 47% against 46% for the senator, a technical tie, and beats Caiado 47% to 41%, Zema 49% to 38% or 39% and Cury 45% to 42%. Lula rose 3 points in the first round and 2 in the runoff versus the September 8 round; rejection is 48% for Lula and 50% for Flávio and government approval went from 45% to 47%. There were 2,003 phone interviews between September 11 and 13, a 2 point margin, TSE registration BR-04076/2026.
MACROBrazil
Datafolha: Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in the first round, with a 46% to 44% technical tie in the runoff
A Datafolha poll released on September 11 shows Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% of first-round voting intentions (43% to 38% of valid votes), a 4-point gap against 5 in the September 3 round, and a technical tie in the runoff at 46% to 44%; the poll surveyed 2,002 voters between September 8 and 10, with a 2-point margin, and in São Paulo shows Tarcísio de Freitas at 49% against 29% for Fernando Haddad.
MACROGlobal
US CPI rises 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, with core above forecasts, and markets see a Fed hike on 9/16 as near-certain
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, in line with forecasts, but core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% projected, with energy +2.1% and gasoline up as oil holds above US$ 100; markets now price a Fed hike at the September 16 meeting as near-certain, with the CME tool at 86.5% and other readings near 90%. Wall Street rose on September 11 on oil relief but ended the week lower.
MACROBrazil
BofA upgrades Brazil to overweight and the Ibovespa posts its highest close since May, with the dollar at R$ 5.09 and foreigners back
Bank of America upgraded Brazilian equities from neutral to overweight on September 8, betting on a deeper Selic cutting cycle to 11.25% by end-2027; the same day the Ibovespa closed at 187,366 points, its highest since May 4, the dollar fell to R$ 5.089 and foreigners posted R$ 3.9 billion of inflows in September's first three sessions.
MACROGlobal
US adds 162,000 jobs in August, Wall Street falls on rate-hike bets and Trump threatens to cut trade
The US jobs report showed on September 4 that 162,000 jobs were added in August, against a forecast of about 55,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, per Bloomberg Línea, Poder360 and Money Times. The S&P 500 fell 0.38% and the Dow Jones 0.51% as bets on a Fed rate hike strengthened, per InfoMoney and CNN Brasil; Trump wrote he would stop doing business with deficit countries if the Fed does not cut rates, per InfoMoney and Bloomberg Línea.
MACROBrazil
Finance Ministry authorizes US$ 1 billion IDB credit for Eco Invest Brasil
The Finance Ministry authorized on September 4 a US$ 1 billion credit line from the Inter-American Development Bank for Eco Invest Brasil, a program to mobilize private capital for the ecological transition with currency protection, per Agência Brasil and Correio Braziliense. The National Treasury page describes the program as an instrument to promote foreign investment in green projects.
MACROGlobal
Fed's Waller signals support for holding rates if inflation keeps easing, and gold jumps nearly 3%
Fed governor Christopher Waller said on September 3 he would support holding rates steady if inflation keeps easing, per CNN Brasil and InfoMoney. The remark pushed down the dollar and Treasury yields and sent gold up 2.84%, per CNN Brasil, nearly 3% per InfoMoney. The next day the strong payroll reversed part of the move, a fact NEXO published on September 5.
MACROBrazil
Foreign investors pull R$ 18.1 billion from B3 in August, the largest monthly outflow since January 2022
Foreign investors pulled R$ 18.12 billion from B3's secondary market in August, the largest monthly outflow since January 2022, per an Elos Ayta survey of B3 data published by Exame and Poder360. The year's balance halved to R$ 18.29 billion after inflows of R$ 56.55 billion from January to April and outflows of R$ 38.26 billion from May to August.
MACROGlobal
US private sector adds 38,000 jobs in August, below forecast, ADP says
The US private sector added 38,000 jobs in August, versus 46,000 in July (revised) and a 48,000 forecast, per the ADP report released September 2 and reported by CNN Brasil and InfoMoney. The figure precedes Friday's official payrolls.
MACROGlobal
Warsh hardens tone at Jackson Hole, says Fed has more work to do
In the closing speech of the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28, Fed chair Kevin Warsh said US inflation is not slowing and the central bank has more work to do if it stays above target, per CNN Brasil and O Globo. In Brazil, the dollar rose 0.66% that day to R$ 5.196.
MERCADOSBrazil
Ibovespa strings eighth straight gain, closing the week up 2.7%
The Ibovespa closed the August 28 session higher for the eighth straight time and ended the week up about 2.7%, per Exame and Bloomberg Línea. The dollar rose 0.66% to R$ 5.196, per Poder360. The streak mirrors — and extends — the recovery begun after the eleven-session losing run that ended August 19.
MACROBrazil
Current account gap hits US$ 8.1 billion in July, wider than expected
Brazil ran a US$ 8.1 billion current account deficit in July, wider than the market forecast (US$ 6.6 billion) and July 2025's result (US$ 6.9 billion), per Central Bank data. Over 12 months the gap totals US$ 62.9 billion, 2.49% of GDP. Foreign direct investment was US$ 7.5 billion in the month.
MERCADOSBrazil
Ibovespa ends its eleven-session losing streak on external relief
The Ibovespa closed August 25 up 1.55% at 174,576 points, its highest level since August's stress began, with the dollar down at R$5.1404. The recovery since the eleven-session losing streak ended spans gains in nearly every session since August 19.
PETRÓLEOGlobal
Hormuz keeps oil above $85 and widens the risk premium
Oil settled above $85 as markets assessed the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In Brazil, the dollar and Ibovespa ended the session in opposite directions amid greater global caution.
INFLAÇÃOBrazil
Focus survey lowers its inflation forecast for a sixth week
The median market forecast for 2026 inflation declined again, reaching 5.02%. The growth estimate also fell, while the Selic and dollar forecasts were unchanged from the previous week.