AssetsAsset

U.S. dollar

Exchange-rate relationship between the U.S. dollar and the Brazilian real.

17articles

22material mentions

12connections

Last 90 days

What sources are saying

The dollar fell 0.93% on August 21 to R$5.144, tracking US rate relief and the Ibovespa's recovery after the eleven-session losing streak. The previous week the currency had topped R$5.21 at the peak of the stress.

Updated September 16, 2026 · 12 verified articles

Market transmission

Why it matters

Foreign exchange changes BRL returns, dollar-linked revenue and costs, inflation and financial conditions.

Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.

Articles in chronological order

MACROBrazil

CNT/MDA: Lula has 47.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro 40% in the runoff, a lead outside the margin three weeks before the election

The CNT/MDA poll released on September 15 shows Lula with 47.3% against 40.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, with 10.2% blank and null and 2.5% undecided, a 7.3 point lead outside the 2.2 point margin; in the August round the score was 48.0% to 39.1%. Lula also beats Cury (45.3% to 38.4%), Caiado (46.4% to 37.3%), Zema (47.7% to 34.5%) and Renan Santos (47.3% to 33.9%); in the prompted first round he has 40.5% against 30.4% for Flávio, per Gazeta do Povo. There were 2,002 in-person interviews between September 9 and 13, TSE registration BR-06902/2026.

3 sourcesSep 15, 2026

MACROGlobal

10-year Treasury tops 5% for the first time since 2023 and Wall Street falls on the eve of the Fed

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose above 5% on September 14, to about 5.01%, for the first time since October 2023, when it spent a single day above the mark, driven by hotter-than-expected August inflation, oil near US$ 110 and government and corporate financing needs; New York stocks closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.48%, the Dow 0.29% and the Nasdaq 0.56%, and the market moved to price about a 90% chance of a Fed hike on September 16, the first in three years.

3 sourcesSep 14, 2026

MACROBrazil

Nexus poll: Lula has 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro 37% in the first round, and 47% to 46% in the runoff

The Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual and released on September 14 shows Lula with 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 37% in the prompted first round, followed by Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (2%); in the runoff, Lula has 47% against 46% for the senator, a technical tie, and beats Caiado 47% to 41%, Zema 49% to 38% or 39% and Cury 45% to 42%. Lula rose 3 points in the first round and 2 in the runoff versus the September 8 round; rejection is 48% for Lula and 50% for Flávio and government approval went from 45% to 47%. There were 2,003 phone interviews between September 11 and 13, a 2 point margin, TSE registration BR-04076/2026.

3 sourcesSep 14, 2026

MACROBrazil

Datafolha: Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in the first round, with a 46% to 44% technical tie in the runoff

A Datafolha poll released on September 11 shows Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% of first-round voting intentions (43% to 38% of valid votes), a 4-point gap against 5 in the September 3 round, and a technical tie in the runoff at 46% to 44%; the poll surveyed 2,002 voters between September 8 and 10, with a 2-point margin, and in São Paulo shows Tarcísio de Freitas at 49% against 29% for Fernando Haddad.

5 sourcesSep 11, 2026

MACROGlobal

US CPI rises 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, with core above forecasts, and markets see a Fed hike on 9/16 as near-certain

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, in line with forecasts, but core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% projected, with energy +2.1% and gasoline up as oil holds above US$ 100; markets now price a Fed hike at the September 16 meeting as near-certain, with the CME tool at 86.5% and other readings near 90%. Wall Street rose on September 11 on oil relief but ended the week lower.

4 sourcesSep 11, 2026

MACROBrazil

BofA upgrades Brazil to overweight and the Ibovespa posts its highest close since May, with the dollar at R$ 5.09 and foreigners back

Bank of America upgraded Brazilian equities from neutral to overweight on September 8, betting on a deeper Selic cutting cycle to 11.25% by end-2027; the same day the Ibovespa closed at 187,366 points, its highest since May 4, the dollar fell to R$ 5.089 and foreigners posted R$ 3.9 billion of inflows in September's first three sessions.

8 sourcesSep 08, 2026

MACROGlobal

US adds 162,000 jobs in August, Wall Street falls on rate-hike bets and Trump threatens to cut trade

The US jobs report showed on September 4 that 162,000 jobs were added in August, against a forecast of about 55,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, per Bloomberg Línea, Poder360 and Money Times. The S&P 500 fell 0.38% and the Dow Jones 0.51% as bets on a Fed rate hike strengthened, per InfoMoney and CNN Brasil; Trump wrote he would stop doing business with deficit countries if the Fed does not cut rates, per InfoMoney and Bloomberg Línea.

11 sourcesSep 04, 2026

MACROBrazil

Finance Ministry authorizes US$ 1 billion IDB credit for Eco Invest Brasil

The Finance Ministry authorized on September 4 a US$ 1 billion credit line from the Inter-American Development Bank for Eco Invest Brasil, a program to mobilize private capital for the ecological transition with currency protection, per Agência Brasil and Correio Braziliense. The National Treasury page describes the program as an instrument to promote foreign investment in green projects.

3 sourcesSep 04, 2026

MACROGlobal

Fed's Waller signals support for holding rates if inflation keeps easing, and gold jumps nearly 3%

Fed governor Christopher Waller said on September 3 he would support holding rates steady if inflation keeps easing, per CNN Brasil and InfoMoney. The remark pushed down the dollar and Treasury yields and sent gold up 2.84%, per CNN Brasil, nearly 3% per InfoMoney. The next day the strong payroll reversed part of the move, a fact NEXO published on September 5.

3 sourcesSep 03, 2026

MACROBrazil

Foreign investors pull R$ 18.1 billion from B3 in August, the largest monthly outflow since January 2022

Foreign investors pulled R$ 18.12 billion from B3's secondary market in August, the largest monthly outflow since January 2022, per an Elos Ayta survey of B3 data published by Exame and Poder360. The year's balance halved to R$ 18.29 billion after inflows of R$ 56.55 billion from January to April and outflows of R$ 38.26 billion from May to August.

4 sourcesSep 03, 2026

MACROGlobal

US private sector adds 38,000 jobs in August, below forecast, ADP says

The US private sector added 38,000 jobs in August, versus 46,000 in July (revised) and a 48,000 forecast, per the ADP report released September 2 and reported by CNN Brasil and InfoMoney. The figure precedes Friday's official payrolls.

2 sourcesSep 02, 2026

MACROGlobal

Warsh hardens tone at Jackson Hole, says Fed has more work to do

In the closing speech of the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28, Fed chair Kevin Warsh said US inflation is not slowing and the central bank has more work to do if it stays above target, per CNN Brasil and O Globo. In Brazil, the dollar rose 0.66% that day to R$ 5.196.

6 sourcesAug 30, 2026

MERCADOSBrazil

Ibovespa strings eighth straight gain, closing the week up 2.7%

The Ibovespa closed the August 28 session higher for the eighth straight time and ended the week up about 2.7%, per Exame and Bloomberg Línea. The dollar rose 0.66% to R$ 5.196, per Poder360. The streak mirrors — and extends — the recovery begun after the eleven-session losing run that ended August 19.

5 sourcesAug 29, 2026

MACROBrazil

Current account gap hits US$ 8.1 billion in July, wider than expected

Brazil ran a US$ 8.1 billion current account deficit in July, wider than the market forecast (US$ 6.6 billion) and July 2025's result (US$ 6.9 billion), per Central Bank data. Over 12 months the gap totals US$ 62.9 billion, 2.49% of GDP. Foreign direct investment was US$ 7.5 billion in the month.

2 sourcesAug 28, 2026

MERCADOSBrazil

Ibovespa ends its eleven-session losing streak on external relief

The Ibovespa closed August 25 up 1.55% at 174,576 points, its highest level since August's stress began, with the dollar down at R$5.1404. The recovery since the eleven-session losing streak ended spans gains in nearly every session since August 19.

21 sourcesAug 14, 2026

PETRÓLEOGlobal

Hormuz keeps oil above $85 and widens the risk premium

Oil settled above $85 as markets assessed the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In Brazil, the dollar and Ibovespa ended the session in opposite directions amid greater global caution.

3 sourcesAug 10, 2026

INFLAÇÃOBrazil

Focus survey lowers its inflation forecast for a sixth week

The median market forecast for 2026 inflation declined again, reaching 5.02%. The growth estimate also fell, while the Selic and dollar forecasts were unchanged from the previous week.

3 sourcesAug 10, 2026

Map connections

What sources are saying

Why it matters

Articles in chronological order

CNT/MDA: Lula has 47.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro 40% in the runoff, a lead outside the margin three weeks before the election

10-year Treasury tops 5% for the first time since 2023 and Wall Street falls on the eve of the Fed

Nexus poll: Lula has 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro 37% in the first round, and 47% to 46% in the runoff

Datafolha: Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in the first round, with a 46% to 44% technical tie in the runoff

US CPI rises 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, with core above forecasts, and markets see a Fed hike on 9/16 as near-certain

BofA upgrades Brazil to overweight and the Ibovespa posts its highest close since May, with the dollar at R$ 5.09 and foreigners back

US adds 162,000 jobs in August, Wall Street falls on rate-hike bets and Trump threatens to cut trade

Finance Ministry authorizes US$ 1 billion IDB credit for Eco Invest Brasil

Fed's Waller signals support for holding rates if inflation keeps easing, and gold jumps nearly 3%

Foreign investors pull R$ 18.1 billion from B3 in August, the largest monthly outflow since January 2022

US private sector adds 38,000 jobs in August, below forecast, ADP says

Warsh hardens tone at Jackson Hole, says Fed has more work to do

Ibovespa strings eighth straight gain, closing the week up 2.7%

Current account gap hits US$ 8.1 billion in July, wider than expected

Ibovespa ends its eleven-session losing streak on external relief

Hormuz keeps oil above $85 and widens the risk premium

Focus survey lowers its inflation forecast for a sixth week