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MACROBRAZIL

BTG/Nexus poll: Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44% in the runoff, a statistical tie six days before the election

The BTG/Nexus poll released on September 28 shows Lula with 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 44% in a possible runoff, a statistical tie within the two-point margin of error. According to Money Times, in the first round Lula has 42% and Flávio 37%, a five-point lead, and 87% of voters who name a candidate say they will not change their vote. The survey interviewed 2,000 voters between September 25 and 27, was commissioned by Banco BTG Pactual and is registered with the electoral court under number BR-07557/2026.

3 sources1d ago

Highlights

13 · current edition
MACROGLOBAL

Trump rejects Iran seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and says the deal would be unacceptable

US President Donald Trump said on September 26 that he rejected Iran proposal to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The plan, presented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York, included a seven-day ceasefire, an end to the US naval blockade, suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil and the release of frozen assets. Trump said Iran wants a deal but that one would be unacceptable, and said the US has total control of the strait.

4 sourcesupdated 1d ago
MACROBRAZIL

Government issues a provisional measure banning online betting in Brazil, with balance withdrawals until October 5 and sites offline from the 6th

The government announced on September 25 a provisional measure that bans the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of online betting in the country. New deposits are barred immediately, bettors may withdraw balances until 11:59 pm on October 5, and sites and apps still online from October 6 will be blocked. Between October 9 and 14, banks return unwithdrawn amounts to accounts linked to the taxpayer ID, with Caixa as intermediary if there is an obstacle. President Lula called betting a cancer and the government cited family losses of R$ 62.5 billion in 2025.

6 sources4d ago
MACROBRAZIL

Measures announced ahead of the election require an adjustment of up to R$ 42.3 billion in the 2027 Budget, with Bolsa Família, Desenrola and the betting ban

The Bolsa Família increase, the third phase of Desenrola and the online betting ban, announced in the week before the first round, will require an adjustment of up to R$ 42.3 billion in the 2027 Budget, according to figures presented by the economic team and compiled by the press. The Bolsa Família increase, with the floor rising from R$ 600 to R$ 691, costs R$ 22 billion; Desenrola 3.0, R$ 15 billion; and the end of online betting removes R$ 5.3 billion in expected revenue. The 2027 Budget bill is already in Congress and will be executed by the president-elect.

3 sources3d ago
MACROBRAZIL

Government creates the third phase of Desenrola, in which the federal government buys up to R$ 150 billion in household debt with a minimum 90% discount

President Lula signed on September 25 a provisional measure creating the third phase of the Desenrola program, in which the federal government may buy at auction portfolios of debts overdue for two to four and a half years, of up to R$ 10,000 each, and pass the discount on to debtors. Up to R$ 150 billion in debt may be eligible, with a minimum 90% discount; the government set aside R$ 15 billion for the program, according to Planning Minister Bruno Moretti. Caixa and Banco do Brasil may execute the operations, and the timeline calls for a creditor call in November and discounts starting in February 2027.

3 sources3d ago
MACROBRAZIL

IPCA-15 rises 0.70% in September, above expectations, driven by electricity, and reaches 4.47% over 12 months

The IPCA-15, the preview of official inflation, rose 0.70% in September, after a 0.40% drop in August, according to IBGE, the highest rate since April and above the median market forecast. Residential electricity rose 7.42% with the end of the Itaipu bonus on power bills, lifting housing 2.07%; without electricity, the index would have been 0.41%. Over 12 months, the preview reaches 4.47%, from 4.24% the previous month.

4 sources4d ago
CORPORATEBRAZIL

Carrefour sells 21 neighborhood stores to Grupo Pereira, which enters São Paulo under the Comper banner

Carrefour sold 21 Carrefour Bairro stores to Grupo Pereira, the seventh-largest supermarket chain in the country, in a deal announced on September 25: 15 units are in São Paulo state and six in the Federal District. With the purchase, Grupo Pereira enters São Paulo under the Comper banner. The price was not officially disclosed; reports estimate about R$ 360 million. Carrefour said the sale is part of a portfolio review to focus on large-format stores and Carrefour Express, and the deal depends on Cade.

4 sources4d ago
MACROBRAZIL

Aneel sets a green tariff flag for October, ending five months of the yellow flag extra charge on power bills

The National Electric Energy Agency set on September 25 the green tariff flag for October power bills, with no extra charge. The yellow flag, which added R$ 1.885 per 100 kWh consumed, had been in place for five months. According to Aneel, increased rainfall, especially in the South and Southeast, stabilized hydroelectric reservoirs and reduced the need to dispatch costlier thermal plants.

5 sources4d ago
MACROBRAZIL

Lula enacts the Mercosur-EFTA free trade agreement, which takes effect on October 1

President Lula enacted by decree the free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Free Trade Association, formed by Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, which takes effect for Brazil on October 1. The agreement, negotiated since 2017, signed in September 2025 and approved by Congress in June, reduces tariffs and technical and sanitary barriers, eases customs procedures and expands access to government procurement.

3 sources4d ago
MACROBRAZIL

Tesouro Direto posts record sales of R$ 15 billion in August, but R$ 17.2 billion in maturities and redemptions leave net flows negative

Tesouro Direto sales totaled R$ 15 billion in August, a record for the series, according to the National Treasury. Redemptions and maturities, however, reached R$ 17.22 billion, driven by the maturity of Tesouro IPCA+ 2026, of R$ 11.3 billion, and net flows were negative by R$ 2.21 billion. Selic-linked bonds accounted for 46.9% of sales, and the program stock reached R$ 272 billion.

3 sources4d ago
CORPORATEBRAZIL

Azzas 2154 shares jump up to 18% and close nearly 13% higher on the Farm Rio sale process

Azzas 2154 shares rose as much as 18% on September 25 and closed 12.97% higher at R$ 16.38, leading Ibovespa gains, amid expectations over the sale process for the Farm Rio brand. According to InfoMoney, Morgan Stanley set the end of September as the deadline for non-binding offers, and funds such as Advent, GIC, CVC and L Catterton would be in the race. After the separation agreed between Alexandre Birman and Roberto Jatahy, Farm Rio will be sold, with 57.4% of proceeds going to Arezzo and 42.6% to Soma.

4 sources4d ago
MACROBRAZIL

Government is likely to keep the R$ 2.12 per liter diesel subsidy for another 30 days, says Moretti

Planning and Budget Minister Bruno Moretti said on September 24 that the government is inclined to keep the R$ 2.12 per liter diesel subsidy, which would expire this week, for another 30 days. The final decision depends on President Lula. The subsidy has two parts: R$ 1.12 per liter, set in a provisional measure that expires on September 26, and R$ 1 per liter announced early in the month, and the combined fuel measures cost about R$ 7 billion a month.

5 sourcesupdated 3d ago
MACROBRAZIL

ANP imposes more than R$ 200 million in fines on fuel distributors for abusive price increases

The National Petroleum Agency said on September 23 that it imposed more than R$ 200 million in fines on fuel distributors for abusive price increases while provisional measures 1,340 and 1,349 were in force, between March and April. According to the agency, gross margins at some companies rose more than 1,350%. The decisions are first-instance administrative rulings and can be appealed; the action is coordinated with Senacon and consumer protection agencies.

4 sourcesupdated 4d ago

Latest news

24 · last 7 days · newest first

Sep 2419:20

MACROBRAZIL

CMN bans credit receivables funds from buying uncertain court claims and requires new valuation of those already in portfolios

The National Monetary Council approved on September 24 changes to the rules for credit receivables investment funds that ban purchases of credits arising from lawsuits or arbitration that still lack liquidity, certainty and enforceability. According to CVM data, the funds had about R$ 35.2 billion exposed to court claims in July. Credits already in portfolios are not eliminated, but from January 4, 2027 they require stricter valuation methods, with independent audit and more transparency. The changes come amid anti-money laundering operations involving funds, such as Carbono Oculto.

5 sources

Sep 2418:00

MACROGLOBAL

Trump and Xi meet at the White House and extend the US-China trade truce, while Beijing cuts soybean purchases from Brazil

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met at the White House on September 23 and 24, the first such meeting in Washington in a decade, and extended the trade truce between the two countries, which according to Bloomberg Línea now runs until January 10, 2027. The sides discussed tariff exemptions and expanded dialogue on artificial intelligence. Ahead of the meeting, China cut purchases of Brazilian soybeans to fewer than five cargoes in two weeks, against about 20 per week in August, and reopened room for US soybeans, with a commitment of at least 25 million tonnes a year between 2026 and 2028.

4 sources

Sep 2417:07

MACROBRAZIL

In a letter to Rubio, 31 US lawmakers accuse the Trump administration of trying to interfere in the Brazilian election

A group of 31 US lawmakers sent a letter on September 24 to Secretary of State Marco Rubio accusing the Donald Trump administration of trying to interfere in the Brazilian presidential election and expressing concern about democracy in Brazil. The letter was released a few days before the first round, amid polls showing a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.

4 sources

Sep 2416:34

CORPORATEBRAZIL

Mercado Livre starts selling prescription drugs with delivery in up to 60 minutes in São Paulo, and pharmacy stocks fall up to 8%

Mercado Livre announced on September 24 that it will sell prescription drugs on its platform from September 25, with delivery in up to 60 minutes in the São Paulo metropolitan area, including antibiotics and GLP-1 drugs. Pharmacy chain stocks reacted in the same session: RD Saúde closed down 5.38%, Pague Menos fell 8% after dropping more than 10% right after the announcement and Panvel lost 4.90%. The company expects three partner chains in October and 20 by year end.

4 sources

Sep 2415:58

CORPORATEBRAZIL

Court sides with creditors and suspends Braskem transfers to Braskem Idesa, including a US$ 415 million financing

The 2nd Bankruptcy and Reorganization Court of São Paulo granted on September 24 an injunction requested by Braskem creditors and suspended fund transfers from the petrochemical company to its Mexican subsidiary Braskem Idesa. The ruling affects a financing of about US$ 415 million and a US$ 71 million capital injection; creditors argue the transfers reduce the equity of the Brazilian company, which is under an out-of-court reorganization. According to Valor, the court also appointed a judicial administrator.

4 sources

Sep 2415:10

MACROBRAZIL

Labor court rules the Correios strike is not abusive, but orders workers back on September 25 and to make up the hours

The Superior Labor Court ruled on September 24, by majority, that the strike by Correios employees, which began on September 10, is not abusive, but ordered a return to work on September 25. Days lost will not be deducted from pay, but the hours must be made up. During the stoppage, the court had required 80% of staff to keep working; unions said they would meet to decide on the return.

4 sources

Sep 2414:04

CORPORATEBRAZIL

Google Cloud announces plan to double its computing infrastructure in Brazil by 2030, as demand for AI rises

Google Cloud global president Thomas Kurian announced on September 24, at an event in São Paulo, a plan to double the company computing infrastructure in Brazil by 2030, citing rising demand for artificial intelligence. Google Cloud currently operates two regions in the country, with three isolated data centers in each, and did not disclose the investment amount. From October 15, part of the processing of its enterprise AI platform will be done in Brazil.

2 sources

Sep 2413:24

CORPORATEBRAZIL

Caixa employees reject the bank third offer and the strike that began on September 10 continues

In virtual assemblies held on September 21, more than 90% of the union bases of Caixa employees rejected the bank third offer and kept the nationwide strike that began on September 10, for an indefinite period. The offer raised from 6.5% to 9% of payroll, from 2027, the cap on the bank contribution to the Saúde Caixa health plan, the main item of the specific agreement negotiated since June. The strike command is due to announce next steps; there is no date for a new round.

updated5 sources

Sep 2412:24

CORPORATEBRAZIL

Petrobras rules out injecting funds or raising its stake in Braskem and says it expects a consensus with the petrochemical company creditors

Petrobras chief executive Magda Chambriard said on September 24 that there is no reason to talk about the state company injecting funds into Braskem and that nationalizing the petrochemical company is not within its scope. On the same day, a Petrobras director said the company believes there will be a consensus with Braskem creditors, as Braskem negotiates the restructuring of about US$ 11 billion in debt under an out-of-court reorganization. Creditors have been demanding a contribution from controlling shareholders Petrobras and IG4 as a condition for a deal.

6 sources

Sep 2410:02

MACROBRAZIL

Dino orders the Federal Police to investigate the conduct of CVM top officials in the Banco Master case

Justice Flávio Dino of the Supreme Court ordered on September 24 that the Federal Police investigate possible irregularities in the conduct of the Securities and Exchange Commission in the Banco Master case. According to the coverage, the probe targets the conduct of the agency top officials and an alleged omission regarding operations linked to the bank. The decision comes a day after Amec and IBGC asked for clarifications about the CVM situation and defended the agency independence.

6 sources

Sep 2409:56

MACROBRAZIL

Government cuts the 2026 Budget freeze from R$ 17.9 billion to R$ 16.1 billion and accommodates a 15% Bolsa Família increase

The fourth bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, released on September 24, cut the total 2026 spending freeze from R$ 17.9 billion to R$ 16.1 billion. The room came from downward revisions to mandatory spending, with R$ 11.5 billion less in social security benefits, and allowed the government to accommodate the 15% Bolsa Família increase, which costs R$ 5.8 billion. According to the Finance Ministry, the freeze is now split between R$ 2.4 billion of spending blocks and R$ 13.6 billion of contingency, and includes R$ 5 billion set aside for the diesel subsidy.

5 sources

Sep 2409:15

MACROBRAZIL

Central bank sees a 90% chance of inflation breaching the target ceiling in 2026, and Galípolo warns of predatory credit offers

The Monetary Policy Report released by the central bank on September 24 raised from 79% to 90% the probability of 2026 IPCA inflation ending above the 4.5% target ceiling; for 2027, the chance rose from 28% to 33%. At the report presentation, central bank governor Gabriel Galípolo said he sees aggressive and even predatory credit offers, with household debt and debt service at high levels and rising defaults, and said the central bank is studying measures and will increase frictions in credit granting.

7 sources

Sep 2409:00

MACROBRAZIL

Operation Crédito Oculto, an offshoot of Carbono Oculto, targets a money laundering scheme in the purchase of a fuel distributor

The Federal Revenue Service, the Gaeco prosecutors unit and the São Paulo Finance Department launched Operation Crédito Oculto on September 24, an offshoot of Carbono Oculto, with 32 warrants against 13 individuals and 19 companies in seven states. The investigation points to money laundering structures using investment funds, fintechs and shell companies to finance the purchase of a fuel distributor and conceal a sugar and ethanol mill; according to the Revenue Service, a traditional bank was used in a linked transaction. According to Bloomberg Línea, Banco Genial was among the targets.

2 sources

Sep 2408:53

MACROBRAZIL

Conab raises its 2026 coffee crop estimate to 67.6 million bags, up 19.6% and the largest in the agency series

The National Supply Company estimated on September 24, in its third crop survey, Brazil 2026 coffee output at 67.6 million processed bags, up 19.6% from 2025 and the largest in the Conab historical series. Arabica should total 48.2 million bags, up 34.8% on the positive biennial cycle, and conilon 19.4 million, down 6.6%. Average yield rises 13.8% to 34.6 bags per hectare.

2 sources

Sep 2321:47

CORPORATEBRAZIL

Afya and Yduqs announce a share-swap merger, with 69% for Afya shareholders and a minimum R$ 750 million dividend for Yduqs holders

Afya and Yduqs announced on the night of September 23, through a material fact, the combination of their businesses by share swap, with no cash payment: Afya shareholders will hold 69% of the combined company and Yduqs shareholders 31%. Afya will be merged into Yduqs, which stays listed on B3, and will leave Nasdaq; Yduqs shareholders will receive a minimum R$ 750 million dividend. The new company will have 1.6 million students and R$ 9.4 billion in revenue over the 12 months to June, with Afya Virgilio Gibbon as chief executive and Bertelsmann Kay Krafft chairing the board. The deal depends on Cade.

3 sources

Sep 2318:00

CORPORATEBRAZIL

TCU gives the Energy Ministry and Aneel 60 days to present a service continuity plan for Enel SP and recommends studying alternatives to revoking the concession

The Federal Court of Accounts plenary recommended on September 23 that the Energy Ministry and Aneel assess alternatives to revoking the Enel São Paulo concession before deciding on termination, comparing effects on service continuity and consumers. The court gave the agencies 60 days to present a timeline ensuring supply in the 24 municipalities served by the distributor. Aneel opened a process in April that may recommend revocation; Enel calls the process disproportionate.

3 sources

Sep 2316:38

MACROGLOBAL

The 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5%, the highest since 2007, and the dollar climbs 1.3% to R$ 5.17

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% on September 23, reaching 5.13% according to InfoMoney, citing Bloomberg, the highest since 2007; the 5-year note crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 after a weak US$ 70 billion auction. The rise came with stronger-than-expected activity data, higher oil and markets pricing three to four Fed hikes over 12 months, after the quarter-point increase the previous week. In Brazil, the dollar rose 1.3% to R$ 5.17, the largest gain in about three months, and the Ibovespa fell 0.86%.

4 sources

Sep 2313:07

MACROBRAZIL

CNJ orders 16 sugar mill court-ordered payments canceled and R$ 4.7 billion returned to the federal government

The national justice inspector, Justice Benedito Gonçalves, ordered the cancellation of 16 court-ordered payments to the sugar and ethanol sector and the return of about R$ 4.7 billion, deposited and blocked since 2023, to the National Treasury, with earnings. According to Gazeta do Povo, the payment orders were issued before the execution phase became final, and the ruling reinstates decisions of the 6th Federal Civil Court of the Federal District that had been suspended by the TRF1 presidency. Compliance is due within five days and the case goes to the CNJ plenary; according to Valor, the payment orders belong to mills on a list linked to Daniel Vorcaro.

3 sources

Sep 2312:34

CORPORATEBRAZIL

Global GPS instability in Embraer E2 jets grounds Azul aircraft and Honeywell investigates the cause

An instability in GPS signal reception on Embraer E2 family aircraft, equipped with Honeywell systems, disrupted airline schedules worldwide from September 22. In Brazil, Azul took precautionary operational measures, with schedule and route adjustments and some flights canceled, and told customers to check flight status. Embraer said there is no impact on flight safety, as the aircraft have backup navigation systems, and Honeywell is investigating the cause; Flightradar24 data pointed to E2 operations resuming on September 23.

updated4 sources

Sep 2311:38

CORPORATEBRAZIL

Petrobras signs an oil and gas cooperation memorandum with Mozambique state company ENH

Petrobras signed on September 22, with disclosure on the 23rd, a memorandum of understanding with Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH), Mozambique state company, for joint work in studies, evaluation, development and commercialization of oil and gas projects, plus exchange of data, technology and technical experience. The agreement is initially valid for two years, renewable, and does not specify research or production areas. Mozambique has large liquefied natural gas reserves explored by TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Eni and others, and the move expands Petrobras presence in Africa, where it already operates in Ivory Coast, Namibia, São Tomé and Príncipe and South Africa.

3 sources

Sep 2307:30

MACROBRAZIL

AtlasIntel poll: Lula has 47.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4% in the runoff, a technical tie ten days before the election

The AtlasIntel poll commissioned by Bloomberg and released on September 23 shows Lula with 47.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 47.4% in the runoff, a technical tie within the 1-point margin, with 4.9% blank, null and undecided. In valid votes, Gazeta do Povo reports 50.2% to 49.8% in the runoff and 46.3% to 43.9% in the first round. Lula beats the other rivals: 47.6% to 42.2% against Zema, 46.6% to 44% against Caiado and 46.2% to 39.4% against Cury. The poll had 5,015 interviews from September 17 to 22, TSE registration BR-04739/2026.

3 sources

Sep 2219:24

MACROBRAZIL

Rondônia sanitation auction, worth R$ 8.5 billion across 40 municipalities, gets no bids at B3 and is declared void

The full concession of water and sewage services for 40 of the 52 municipalities of Rondônia, including Porto Velho, for 35 years, received no bid envelopes by the September 22 deadline at B3 and was declared void; the auction was scheduled for September 29. The project had an estimated value of R$ 8.5 billion, R$ 4.2 billion in investment and a minimum fixed grant of R$ 567.7 million, with a tariff discount of up to 20% allowed in the tender. Aegea, BRK and Acciona showed interest but did not formalize participation; NeoFeed attributes the void to high rates, operator leverage and commitments from earlier concessions, and expects a redesign and a new attempt in 2027.

2 sources

Sep 2219:23

MACROBRAZIL

Gilmar Mendes proposes taking the multibillion dispute between sugar mills and the federal government over the defunct IAA to the Supreme Court full bench after the Vorcaro case

Justice Gilmar Mendes filed on September 22 a motion for the Supreme Court Second Panel to send to the full bench the dispute over compensation to the sugar and ethanol sector for price controls by the defunct Sugar and Alcohol Institute; the motion will be examined in a virtual session from September 25 to October 2. The goal is to standardize the requirement of individual expert proof of loss, set in a 2020 general repercussion ruling, across cases such as those of the Alcídia, Raízen and Jalles Machado mills. The impact is estimated at R$ 103.4 billion in the 2026 Budget Guidelines Law, according to Money Times, and up to R$ 145 billion, according to Gazeta do Povo. The move follows messages from Daniel Vorcaro, whose Banco Master bought Alcídia court-ordered payments, criticizing the justice stance against the payments.

3 sources

Sep 2219:00

CORPORATEBRAZIL

Axia Energia approves the redemption of 70.7 million PNC shares for R$ 3.9 billion, with an option to convert into common shares

The board of Axia Energia, formerly Eletrobras, approved on September 22 the redemption of 70,716,228 class C preferred shares, equivalent to 15.46% of the class, for R$ 3.9 billion, at R$ 55.15 per share, the closing price of the common shares on September 21. Shareholders may choose between September 28 and 30 to convert PNC shares into common shares on a one-for-one basis; those who do not choose will have their shares redeemed. It is the fourth such operation, which works as a buyback program to simplify the capital structure.

2 sources

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