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Macro & EconomiesEconomy

Brazil

Brazilian economy and its monetary, fiscal, productive and regulatory environment.

68articles
109material mentions
12connections
12
MacroSelic rate12 shared articles ↗MacroInflation8 shared articles ↗MacroYield Curve8 shared articles ↗MacroPublic Debt7 shared articles ↗MacroGDP7 shared articles ↗SectorBrazilian exporters5 shared articles ↗OrganizationVale4 shared articles ↗AssetNTN-B 20354 shared articles ↗IndexIbovespa3 shared articles ↗AssetU.S. dollar3 shared articles ↗EconomyUnited States3 shared articles ↗ThemeTrade tariffs3 shared articles ↗

Last 90 days

What sources are saying

Recent coverage combines domestic macroeconomic expectations with Brazil's initiative in trade consultations over U.S. tariffs.

Updated September 26, 2026 · 38 verified articles

Market transmission

Why it matters

Activity, inflation, fiscal policy, rates, currencies and foreign trade interact in local price formation.

Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.

Articles in chronological order

68
MACROBrazil

Government issues a provisional measure banning online betting in Brazil, with balance withdrawals until October 5 and sites offline from the 6th

The government announced on September 25 a provisional measure that bans the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of online betting in the country. New deposits are barred immediately, bettors may withdraw balances until 11:59 pm on October 5, and sites and apps still online from October 6 will be blocked. Between October 9 and 14, banks return unwithdrawn amounts to accounts linked to the taxpayer ID, with Caixa as intermediary if there is an obstacle. President Lula called betting a cancer and the government cited family losses of R$ 62.5 billion in 2025.

6 sourcesSep 25, 2026
CORPORATEBrazil

Carrefour sells 21 neighborhood stores to Grupo Pereira, which enters São Paulo under the Comper banner

Carrefour sold 21 Carrefour Bairro stores to Grupo Pereira, the seventh-largest supermarket chain in the country, in a deal announced on September 25: 15 units are in São Paulo state and six in the Federal District. With the purchase, Grupo Pereira enters São Paulo under the Comper banner. The price was not officially disclosed; reports estimate about R$ 360 million. Carrefour said the sale is part of a portfolio review to focus on large-format stores and Carrefour Express, and the deal depends on Cade.

4 sourcesSep 25, 2026
MACROBrazil

Value of agricultural output hits a record R$ 927.2 billion in 2025, up 18.4%, led by soybeans and coffee

The IBGE Municipal Agricultural Production survey shows a record value of R$ 927.2 billion in 2025, a nominal 18.4% increase over 2024. Soybeans accounted for 34% of the total, with R$ 315.7 billion and a 165.3 million tonne crop; corn rose 38.9% in value and overtook sugarcane; coffee grew 44.7% to R$ 100 billion. Harvested area exceeded 100 million hectares for the first time and Mato Grosso led with 17.9% of the total.

4 sourcesSep 17, 2026
MACROBrazil

Lula signs the critical minerals law without vetoes, with a guarantee fund and R$ 5 billion in tax credits

The law creating the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals was signed without vetoes on September 16 and published in the Official Gazette. It authorises a R$ 5 billion guarantee fund with a federal contribution of up to R$ 2 billion, creates tax credits of R$ 1 billion a year between 2030 and 2034 and a national council for the industrialisation of the sector.

7 sourcesSep 16, 2026
MACROBrazil

CVM receives the draft of the tokenisation pilot that will test shares, debentures and fund quotas on DLT networks

The Tokenisation Working Group delivered to the CVM board, on September 15, the draft resolution creating the CVM DLT Pilot Programme. The pilot will test issuance, offering, trading, bookkeeping, custody and settlement of shares, debentures, receivables certificates and fund quotas on distributed ledger networks, with direct real time access by the CVM to the records.

3 sourcesSep 16, 2026
CORPORATEBrazil

Renault and Geely announce R$ 2 billion more in Brazil through 2027 and lift the cycle to R$ 5.8 billion with electrified cars in Paraná

Renault and Geely announced on September 15 an additional R$ 2 billion investment in Brazil through the end of 2027, lifting the group investment cycle in the country to R$ 5.8 billion, with funds for the production of a new electrified Renault model at the São José dos Pinhais (PR) complex from 2027; Money Times details that assembly of the Geely EX2 electric hatch starts in December 2026 and the EX5 hybrid SUV entered production in September, and that the platform now supports combustion, flex hybrid and electric cars.

2 sourcesSep 15, 2026
MACROBrazil

Prisma Fiscal: market trims the projected 2026 primary deficit to R$ 52.3 billion but lifts gross debt to 83.2% of GDP

The September Prisma Fiscal, released on September 15 by the Finance Ministry, shows the median projection for the Central Government primary deficit in 2026 at R$ 52.271 billion, from R$ 59.145 billion in August, and for 2027 at R$ 45.350 billion, from R$ 55.000 billion; expected net revenue rose to R$ 2.581 trillion in 2026 and R$ 2.750 trillion in 2027. Projected gross debt, however, rose to 83.20% of GDP in 2026 (83.00% in August) and 87.00% in 2027 (86.77%), with the 14% Selic lifting interest expense despite the better primary balance.

2 sourcesSep 15, 2026
MACROBrazil

Retail sales fall 0.8% in July, worse than consensus, and reinforce weak activity on the eve of the Copom

Retail sales volume fell 0.8% in July from June, per the IBGE Monthly Retail Survey released on September 15, against a Reuters consensus of a 0.2% drop; versus July 2025 the rise was 1.2%, below the 2.15% expected. Five of eight sectors declined, with furniture and appliances down 4.9%, books and stationery 4.2% and apparel 2.7%, which IBGE attributes to purchases brought forward for the World Cup in May; expanded retail rose 0.4% in the month, and restricted retail is up 1.8% in the year and 1.6% over 12 months.

2 sourcesSep 15, 2026
MACROBrazil

CNI: Brazil invested R$ 266.8 billion in infrastructure in 2024 and needs R$ 550 billion a year for two decades

A CNI study on infrastructure investment financing shows Brazil invested R$ 266.8 billion in the sector in 2024, 2.27% of GDP, and would need about R$ 550 billion a year, 4.65% of GDP, for at least two decades to clear its bottlenecks; the private sector accounted for R$ 188.1 billion (70.5%) and the public sector for R$ 78.6 billion, with R$ 8.4 billion from multilaterals. The confederation proposes a new financing regime combining macro stability, deeper capital markets, private credit and project finance, a project pipeline, legal certainty and regulatory predictability.

2 sourcesSep 14, 2026
MACROBrazil

CMN expands the 2026 credit limit for states and municipalities by R$ 2 billion, to R$ 28.6 billion

The National Monetary Council raised the global limit for credit operations by states, the Federal District and municipalities in 2026 from R$ 26.625 billion to R$ 28.625 billion. The sub-limit with a federal guarantee rose from R$ 7 billion to R$ 8.5 billion and the one without a guarantee from R$ 6 billion to R$ 6.5 billion, drawing on R$ 7.87 billion of unused room.

2 sourcesSep 14, 2026
MACROBrazil

Lula signs law making Move Brasil permanent, with R$ 30 billion in credit for app drivers and taxi drivers

Lula signed on September 14 the law that turns Move Brasil into a permanent policy, a credit programme for new vehicle purchases by app drivers, taxi drivers, delivery workers and, now, school transport, with R$ 30 billion operated by BNDES, of which R$ 5 billion has already been used for about 48,000 cars and 20,000 motorcycles. The rules set vehicles of up to R$ 200,000, up to 84 instalments with a six-month grace period, interest of 12.6% a year for men and 11.5% for women, a six-month requirement of active platform registration instead of twelve, and 80% FGI coverage of operations.

3 sourcesSep 14, 2026
MACROBrazil

Industrial confidence falls to 44.9 points in September and completes 21 months of pessimism, the longest stretch since 2015

The CNI Industrial Business Confidence Index (ICEI) fell 1.4 point in September to 44.9 points, from 46.3 in August, completing 21 straight months below the 50-point line that separates optimism from pessimism, the longest stretch since the one recorded in 2015 and 2016. The current conditions index fell 2.5 points to 40.2, with the assessment of the Brazilian economy at 33 points (-3.6), and the expectations index slipped 0.9 point to 47.2; the survey polled 1,186 companies between September 1 and 8.

2 sourcesSep 14, 2026
MACROBrazil

Lula signs without vetoes the end of the so-called blouse tax, zeroing import duty on purchases up to US$ 50

President Lula signed on September 10, without vetoes, the law zeroing the 20% import duty on international purchases up to US$ 50, originating in Provisional Measure 1,357 of May and approved by Congress the previous week; the 17% state ICMS remains, and the law also zeroes duty on drugs for rare diseases with no domestic equivalent. For shipments between US$ 50 and US$ 3,000, Agência Brasil records a cut in the rate from 60% to 30%.

6 sourcesSep 10, 2026
MACROBrazil

Fachin removes Moraes as rapporteur of the fake news inquiry and preserves prior rulings amid the Supreme Court crisis

Supreme Court Chief Justice Edson Fachin decided on September 9 to remove Alexandre de Moraes as rapporteur of the fake news inquiry, keeping prior rulings valid, days after moving Moraes's request against André Mendonça into a separate proceeding and after 13 former justices' letter demanding a rigorous inquiry into the crisis tied to Daniel Vorcaro's messages.

4 sourcesSep 09, 2026
MACROBrazil

Government sets December 17 auction for Brasília Airport in a block with ten regional terminals and R$ 1.2bn in investment

The notice published on September 9 sets for December 17, at 3 pm, the auction that renegotiates the Brasília Airport concession, operated by Inframerica since 2012 with demand below projections, in a block with ten regional airports in MT, GO, MS, PR and BA; the winner buys the shares for R$ 628.8 million, pays a minimum 5.13% variable contribution and invests R$ 1.2 billion in a new international terminal, parking building and access roads, under a contract through 2037.

4 sourcesSep 09, 2026
MACROBrazil

Thirteen former Supreme Court justices ask Fachin for a rigorous inquiry into the Vorcaro-Moraes crisis in a public session

Thirteen retired Supreme Court justices, from Néri da Silveira to Rosa Weber, sent a letter to Chief Justice Edson Fachin on September 7 asking for an urgent public session and an immediate, rigorous inquiry into the facts tied to the Banco Master founder's messages to Alexandre de Moraes, in what they call the most acute crisis in the Court's history.

4 sourcesSep 07, 2026
MACROBrazil

CMN widens renegotiation of climate-hit rural debt, with a November 12 deadline

The National Monetary Council approved on September 4 a measure widening access to debt renegotiation for farmers and cooperatives hit by adverse weather, per Agência Brasil and Poder360. The deadline to contract the debt restructuring is November 12, with payment over up to eight years and two years of grace, per CNN Brasil, which also records the reclassification of rural credit operations.

3 sourcesSep 04, 2026
EMPRESASBrazil

Federal court suspends licenses and halts Sigma's lithium mine in the Jequitinhonha Valley over proximity to a quilombo

The federal court in Teófilo Otoni suspended on September 4 the environmental licenses and halted Sigma Lithium's mining at the Grota do Cirilo complex, between Itinga and Araçuaí (MG), until Incra approves an impact study and prior consultation with the Baú quilombo, per Estado de Minas and Bloomberg Línea. The ruling accepted a quilombola federation's challenge over the mine's distance to the territory, 2.7 to 3 kilometers per the expert report, against 8 kilometers claimed by the company, per Estado de Minas.

2 sourcesSep 04, 2026
MACROBrazil

IBGE: nearly 2 million worked through digital platforms in 2025, with longer hours and lower pay per hour

IBGE reported on September 4 that about 1.8 million to 2 million people worked through digital service platforms such as transport and delivery in Brazil in 2025, per Poder360, InfoMoney, Valor and Estadão. These workers put in longer hours and earn less per hour than other employed people, per Correio Braziliense and BBC Brasil; only a third contribute to social security, per Valor.

9 sourcesSep 04, 2026
MACROBrazil

Senate passes critical minerals policy with R$ 2 billion fund; bill goes to president

September 4 update: the text creates a council with power to approve or reject changes of control at critical-mineral miners, per Bloomberg Línea and Poder360. The Senate approved on September 2 bill PL 2,780/2024, creating the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals, with a R$ 2 billion Mineral Activity Guarantee Fund from the Union and R$ 5 billion in tax credits over five years for domestic processing, per Agência Senado, Poder360 and Money Times. The text, reported by Eduardo Braga, goes to presidential signature without returning to the Chamber.

7 sourcesSep 02, 2026
EMPRESASBrazil

Azzas 2154 to split into Arezzo&Co and Soma after Birman-Jatahy deal

Alexandre Birman and Roberto Jatahy struck a deal to split Azzas 2154 into two independent listed companies, Arezzo&Co and Soma, about two years after the merger, per CNN Brasil, NeoFeed, Bloomberg Línea, Exame and Brazil Journal. The Birman bloc keeps 32.13% of Arezzo&Co and the Jatahy bloc 25.95% of Soma; Farm goes into a company split between the two. Shares rose more than 11% on the morning of September 2, per CNN Brasil.

6 sourcesSep 02, 2026
MACROBrazil

Brazil 2027 budget to freeze funds in pursuit of the fiscal target center

On the eve of the constitutional filing deadline, full coverage previews Brazil's 2027 budget: the government will seek leeway to freeze more funds and pursue the fiscal target's center, per Folha and Gazeta do Povo, and the bill will include a R$ 6 billion injection into the postal service, per g1 and Folha. 'Effective' surplus projections diverge between R$ 18-20 billion and about R$ 8 billion.

15 sourcesAug 30, 2026
EMPRESASBrazil

Grid operator ONS triggers surplus plan for second time this year as it readies automatic solar curtailment

Grid operator ONS triggered its Energy Surplus Management Plan on Sunday, August 23, restricting generation from smaller plants connected to distribution grids from 11:00 to 13:30 — the mechanism's second activation in 2026. The episode comes days after the operator announced Erag, an automatic solar-curtailment scheme with up-to-3 GW design capacity and a pilot expected by year-end.

4 sourcesAug 21, 2026