Brazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.
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The USDA raised the US soybean crop to 123.4 million tonnes on September 11, 2026 and the November contract fell 2.7% in Chicago to US$ 12.96 a bushel, per CNN Brasil and Money Times.
Updated October 25, 2026 · 12 verified articles
Market transmission
Price reflects USDA reports, weather in the US and Brazilian crops, Chinese demand, tariffs and the exchange rate; it affects SLC Agrícola, traders, cooperatives and the trade balance.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.The US Department of Agriculture's office in Brasília projects Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop at 184 million tonnes, an unofficial estimate, up from 180.5 million in 2025/26, according to InfoMoney and CNN Brasil.
Conab estimated in its first survey of the 2026/27 crop grain output of 367.1 million tonnes. Soybeans should total a record 181.6 million tonnes, 0.7% above the previous crop, and corn 148 million, according to Conab and Correio Braziliense.
IBGE estimated on October 15 Brazil's 2026 grain crop at 354.5 million tonnes, a record for the series, up 2.4% from 2025. Soybeans should total 175 million tonnes, according to Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimated US corn yield from 178.5 to 181.2 bushels per acre and increased ending stocks of corn and soybeans above expectations. The December corn contract fell about 4.5% in Chicago.
China announced tariff cuts on US agricultural products such as corn, wheat, meat, dairy, sorghum and oils after the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, but kept the additional 10% surcharge on US soybeans. The decision preserves the price advantage of Brazilian soybeans in the Chinese market, although Beijing committed to buy minimum volumes of US soybeans.
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met at the White House on September 23 and 24, the first such meeting in Washington in a decade, and extended the trade truce between the two countries, which according to Bloomberg Línea now runs until January 10, 2027. The sides discussed tariff exemptions and expanded dialogue on artificial intelligence. Ahead of the meeting, China cut purchases of Brazilian soybeans to fewer than five cargoes in two weeks, against about 20 per week in August, and reopened room for US soybeans, with a commitment of at least 25 million tonnes a year between 2026 and 2028.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met on September 20 at JPMorgan Chase's Manhattan headquarters, with Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, to try to close deals on artificial intelligence, tariffs, rare earths and critical minerals ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Washington this week. The two countries' trade truce expires on November 10, and China's Commerce Ministry said He is leading a delegation of Chinese companies to the consultations.
Abiove cut its projection for Brazil's 2026 soybean exports from 115.4 million to 115 million tonnes, still 6.3% above 2025, and raised crushing to 63.5 million tonnes, a record about 8.5% above the 58.5 million of 2025. Production was kept at 180.46 million tonnes; soy oil exports are seen up 36% at 1.8 million tonnes and meal exports up 8.5% at 25.3 million.
The IBGE Municipal Agricultural Production survey shows a record value of R$ 927.2 billion in 2025, a nominal 18.4% increase over 2024. Soybeans accounted for 34% of the total, with R$ 315.7 billion and a 165.3 million tonne crop; corn rose 38.9% in value and overtook sugarcane; coffee grew 44.7% to R$ 100 billion. Harvested area exceeded 100 million hectares for the first time and Mato Grosso led with 17.9% of the total.
The 12th and final Conab survey for the 2025/26 crop, released on September 15, estimates grain output of 361.7 million tonnes, up 2.6% from the previous cycle and 0.3% from August, on a planted area of 83.5 million hectares (+1.7%). Soybeans reach a record 180.4 million tonnes (+5.2%), cotton 4.14 million (+1.5%) and sorghum 7.35 million; corn grows 2% to 144 million, while rice (11.08 million, -13.2%), beans (2.95 million, -3.6%) and wheat (5.74 million, -27.1%) decline; soybean exports are projected at a record 116.2 million tonnes.
SLC Agrícola's board approved on September 11 the issue of 515,480 financial rural product notes (CPR-F) totalling R$ 515.48 million, maturing September 15, 2033, paying 95.5% of DI, amortising in two equal instalments in 2031 and at maturity, with a Bradesco guarantee on 100% of the balance and Bradesco BBI as lead on a firm-commitment basis; proceeds, earmarked for production, trading, working capital and investment in agribusiness, will be fully swapped into dollars at a cost of currency variation plus 6.15% a year.
The USDA's September 11 supply and demand report raised its estimate of the US soybean crop to 4.535 billion bushels (123.4 million tonnes), at 52.8 bushels an acre, from 4.519 billion in August and against expectations of a cut to 4.501 billion; the November contract in Chicago closed down 2.68% at US$ 12.96 a bushel, and corn fell to US$ 5.30. The USDA also raised Brazilian corn output from 140 to 141 million tonnes and cut exports from 42 to 40 million.