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MP 1,386/2026 extended drawback tax suspensions by up to one year for exporters hit by US tariffs, easing cash for those who imported inputs counting on sales the tariffs froze. The Lula-Trump call reopened negotiations, still without an act on the tariffs in force.
Updated November 11, 2026 · 37 verified articles
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Tariffs, foreign demand, currencies, margins and the ability to redirect sales change the exposure.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.The lower house approved on November 10 decree 1,379/26, the third edition of the Brasil Soberano Plan, which adds up to R$ 13.5 billion to credit lines for companies hit by US tariffs and international conflicts; the text goes to the Senate, according to Agência Câmara and Estado de Minas.
Brazil posted a trade surplus of US$ 9.3 billion in October 2026, up 39.4% from October 2025, with exports up 20% and imports up 14.8%, according to MDIC data released on November 6.
The European Commission said on October 21 it intends to propose resuming imports of poultry meat and honey from Brazil, suspended since September 3, after an audit with positive results, according to Exame and g1. Beef is left out, and the proposal still needs a vote by member states.
Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretariat published rules for exporters to access reduced-tariff quotas to Norway under the Mercosur-EFTA deal, with benefits from November 1, 2026, according to Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil. Products include beef and chicken, honey, corn and soybean meal.
Mexico suspended poultry imports from all of Brazil after a Newcastle disease outbreak was confirmed at a commercial farm in Nova Itaberaba, western Santa Catarina, according to CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense. China decided to suspend only purchases of poultry from Santa Catarina, according to the Agriculture Ministry.
Conab estimated in its first survey of the 2026/27 crop grain output of 367.1 million tonnes. Soybeans should total a record 181.6 million tonnes, 0.7% above the previous crop, and corn 148 million, according to Conab and Correio Braziliense.
IBGE estimated on October 15 Brazil's 2026 grain crop at 354.5 million tonnes, a record for the series, up 2.4% from 2025. Soybeans should total 175 million tonnes, according to Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimated US corn yield from 178.5 to 181.2 bushels per acre and increased ending stocks of corn and soybeans above expectations. The December corn contract fell about 4.5% in Chicago.
President Lula enacted by decree the free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Free Trade Association, formed by Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, which takes effect for Brazil on October 1. The agreement, negotiated since 2017, signed in September 2025 and approved by Congress in June, reduces tariffs and technical and sanitary barriers, eases customs procedures and expands access to government procurement.
BNDES received R$ 8.2 billion in credit requests under the third stage of the Brasil Soberano plan in 138 operations filed on September 17 and 18. R$ 1.7 billion has already been approved: R$ 794 million for group 2 (industrial sectors such as textiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, strategic minerals and fertilizers), R$ 680 million for group 1 and suppliers hit by US tariffs and R$ 251 million for exporters to the Persian Gulf. Fertilizers account for R$ 683 million. The plan has a R$ 22.6 billion budget, R$ 13.5 billion from the Treasury and R$ 9.1 billion from BNDES.
Abiove cut its projection for Brazil's 2026 soybean exports from 115.4 million to 115 million tonnes, still 6.3% above 2025, and raised crushing to 63.5 million tonnes, a record about 8.5% above the 58.5 million of 2025. Production was kept at 180.46 million tonnes; soy oil exports are seen up 36% at 1.8 million tonnes and meal exports up 8.5% at 25.3 million.
BNDES opened on September 17 the enrolment protocol for the third stage of the Brasil Soberano plan, with R$ 22.6 billion, of which R$ 13.5 billion from the Treasury and R$ 9.1 billion from the bank. Exporters hit by US tariffs and their suppliers, strategic industrial sectors and exporters to the Persian Gulf affected by the war can apply, with interest of 4.3% to 17.5% a year and a requirement that at least 1% of revenue come from those markets.
The law creating the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals was signed without vetoes on September 16 and published in the Official Gazette. It authorises a R$ 5 billion guarantee fund with a federal contribution of up to R$ 2 billion, creates tax credits of R$ 1 billion a year between 2030 and 2034 and a national council for the industrialisation of the sector.
The Brazilian government received on September 14 official communication from the European Union reporting internal agreement on the sanitary protocols presented after the August and September audit, said on September 16 the executive secretary of the Agriculture Ministry, Cleber Soares. The acceptance opens the way to resume chicken exports, suspended since September 3, but still depends on the detailed protocol from the bloc.
The 12th and final Conab survey for the 2025/26 crop, released on September 15, estimates grain output of 361.7 million tonnes, up 2.6% from the previous cycle and 0.3% from August, on a planted area of 83.5 million hectares (+1.7%). Soybeans reach a record 180.4 million tonnes (+5.2%), cotton 4.14 million (+1.5%) and sorghum 7.35 million; corn grows 2% to 144 million, while rice (11.08 million, -13.2%), beans (2.95 million, -3.6%) and wheat (5.74 million, -27.1%) decline; soybean exports are projected at a record 116.2 million tonnes.
Development, Industry, Trade and Services Minister Márcio Elias Rosa said on September 14 that Brazil and the United States should hold the first in-person meeting since talks on the tariffs resumed, on the sidelines of the G20 trade ministers meeting between September 30 and October 1 in Milwaukee, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira present. On the table are the 25% surcharge imposed in July on steel, apparel, footwear, sugar, ethanol, pharmaceuticals and farm machinery and the additional 12.5% tariff tied to forced labour allegations, plus the investigations on deforestation and digital payments; the last virtual meeting was on August 31, after the Lula-Trump call on August 21.
The USDA's September 11 supply and demand report raised its estimate of the US soybean crop to 4.535 billion bushels (123.4 million tonnes), at 52.8 bushels an acre, from 4.519 billion in August and against expectations of a cut to 4.501 billion; the November contract in Chicago closed down 2.68% at US$ 12.96 a bushel, and corn fell to US$ 5.30. The USDA also raised Brazilian corn output from 140 to 141 million tonnes and cut exports from 42 to 40 million.
Law 15,501, dated September 9 and announced September 10, allows BNDES to create subsidiaries to widen its operations, subject to the Fiscal Responsibility Law; the president vetoed ten of the bill's thirteen provisions, including the creation of the Export Credit Fund, which the bank would run, and changes to risk-sharing rules among guarantee funds, arguing the fund's goals are already met by existing policies and its creation breaches the 2026 budget guidelines law. The text came from bill 5,961/2025 by then-senator Fernando Farias.
Brazil exported 4.15 million 60-kg bags of coffee in August, the best August on record, up 31% from August 2025, with revenue of US$ 1.33 billion (+19.8%) despite an 8.6% lower average price, per Cecafé; the late arrival of new-crop arabica, delayed by July rains, and a jump in conilon explain the volume. Year to date, shipments total 25.07 million bags (-1.2%), with a 21.6% drop to the United States.
An Amcham Brasil survey using Comexstat data shows Brazilian exports to the United States totalled US$ 24.1 billion from January to August, down 9.7% and US$ 2.6 billion less than in 2025, the lowest for the period since 2023; products surcharged at 25% to 37.5% lead the losses, and in August value rose 12.1% while volume fell 17.3%.
China's Ministry of Finance led a coordinated injection of 360 billion yuan, about US$ 54 billion, into state-owned banks and insurers, per CNN Brasil and CNBC. Per CNN Brasil, China Life receives 35 billion yuan, China Taiping 7 billion and PICC plans to raise up to 15 billion in a private placement to the Treasury; ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China also benefit. CNBC links the measure to pressure on net interest margins and insurers' solvency.
Brazilian beef exports fell 27.1% in volume in August from August 2025, per Agência Brasil citing MDIC data, after China's 1.106 million tonne import quota hit 90% use on August 10 and additional volumes became subject to a 55% tariff. Shipments to China fell 89.8%, from 158 thousand to 16 thousand tonnes, the worst result since December 2021, per CNN Brasil; O Globo records a 19.7% drop in value.
Brazil's trade balance posted a US$ 7.394 billion surplus in August, the third largest for the month, per Secex/MDIC data released on September 4 and covered by Agência Brasil, g1, Correio Braziliense, InfoMoney and Money Times. Exports to the United States rose 12.1% from August 2025 to US$ 3.19 billion, supported by prices 8.6% higher, while sales to China fell 10.9% and sales to the European Union grew 46.4%.
The federal court in Teófilo Otoni suspended on September 4 the environmental licenses and halted Sigma Lithium's mining at the Grota do Cirilo complex, between Itinga and Araçuaí (MG), until Incra approves an impact study and prior consultation with the Baú quilombo, per Estado de Minas and Bloomberg Línea. The ruling accepted a quilombola federation's challenge over the mine's distance to the territory, 2.7 to 3 kilometers per the expert report, against 8 kilometers claimed by the company, per Estado de Minas.
The inspection by European sanitary authorities from August 24 to September 4 deemed Brazil's poultry and honey controls satisfactory, according to Agriculture Minister André de Paula; resuming exports to the European Union still depends on the official report and administrative steps.
President Lula signed Law 15,495, creating the Fertilizer Industry Development Program, Profert, with incentives for domestic fertilizer production, per Agência Senado, Agência Câmara and Poder360. Per Poder360, there was a partial veto of the provision defining fertilizers as products extracted and produced in the national territory.
Responding to CVM about executives' remarks on debt and cash generation in 2026, Minerva said leverage stood at 2.9x at the end of Q2, that it has repurchased and cancelled more than R$ 1.2 billion in bonds this year and that it will keep the 25% minimum dividend on adjusted profit while leverage stays above 2.5x, per CNN Brasil and Money Times.
Embraer and asset manager SPX Capital agreed to merge their cybersecurity units Tempest and Vision, creating a company with R$ 700 million in annual revenue, 900 employees and 600 clients, per CNN Brasil and NeoFeed. The deal is a share swap with no cash: SPX takes control and Embraer remains a relevant shareholder; it depends on Cade.
ANA Holdings, parent of All Nippon Airways, placed an additional order for eight Embraer E190-E2 jets, lifting the firm orders under the 2025 contract to 23, per Money Times and InfoMoney. The order brings Embraer closer to its annual commercial aircraft delivery and sales target, per InfoMoney.
September 4 update: CSNA3 rose as much as 16.22% on the morning of September 3 and closed up 6.69%, per InfoMoney and Bloomberg Línea. Fabio Schvartsman, former Vale chief, takes over on September 3 as CSN's CEO, replacing Benjamin Steinbruch, who leaves after 24 years and returns to chair the board, per NeoFeed, Brazil Journal, Poder360 and Money Times. The change comes with the company carrying R$ 42 billion in debt and 3.49x leverage, per NeoFeed.
Embraer delivered to Azul the E195-E2 that marks the 2,000th E-Jet built by the manufacturer, per Correio Braziliense and Estadão. The aircraft is also the 50th E2-family unit in Azul's fleet, the largest operator of Embraer regional jets in Brazil. The delivery was announced on September 2, per Estadão, and detailed by Correio on September 5.
Appeals judge Roberto Carvalho Veloso of the TRF1 lifted the injunction suspending the 12% oil export tax for Abep members, granting the AGU appeal, per Gazeta do Povo and Poder360. The levy is back in force — five days after the first-instance injunction that opened the clash with Camex.
Gerdau said it will replace its US$ 875 million global revolving credit line with a new US$ 1.125 billion facility, with a five-year term maturing at the end of August 2031, extendable by up to one year, per Money Times and InfoMoney. The unsecured line covers Gerdau, Gerdau Aços Longos, Gerdau Açominas, Gerdau Ameristeel and overseas affiliates.
September 4 update: the embargo took effect on September 3 and the Brazilian government voiced deep concern in a note, per Agência Brasil, Estado de Minas, Poder360 and O Globo. The EU suspended imports of Brazilian beef and poultry after removing the country from the list of those meeting the bloc's requirements on antibiotic use in livestock; the suspension also covers eggs and honey.
Development Minister Márcio Elias Rosa and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer meet by videoconference this Monday (31st) at 2:30 pm — the first direct contact between the teams since the US tariffs took effect, per Poder360 and CNN Brasil. The meeting is a resumption, not a decision, the minister said.
Brasília's 17th Federal Court granted an injunction on August 27 suspending the 12% oil export tax for Abep member companies. The same day, Gecex-Camex extended the levy for another 60 days starting September 8. The tax collected R$ 7.98 billion from January through July.
Provisional Measure 1,386/2026, published August 25, extends by up to one year the tax-suspension deadlines of the drawback-suspension regime — import duty, IPI, PIS/Cofins and AFRMM — for exporters hit by US tariffs. The extension covers concession acts expiring between July 22 and December 31, 2026.
President Lula phoned Donald Trump on August 21, in a call of about one hour and twenty minutes, and said the allegations behind the US tariffs on Brazil are unfounded, asking to resume negotiations. Per the Brazilian government's readout, Trump agreed on preserving trade relations and proposed a new meeting of the teams. No concrete decision on the tariffs was announced.
China requested to join the consultations opened by Brazil at the World Trade Organization over U.S. tariff measures. Beijing cited a commercial interest because some restrictions also reach Chinese products.