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Brazil's 2026 elections

The October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.

11articles
27material mentions
9connections
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IndexIbovespa4 shared articles ↗AssetU.S. dollar3 shared articles ↗MacroPublic Debt2 shared articles ↗ThemeTrade tariffs1 shared article ↗EconomyUnited States1 shared article ↗ThemeCredit Stress1 shared article ↗ThemeGeopolitical risk1 shared article ↗SectorBrazilian banks1 shared article ↗OrganizationBTG Pactual1 shared article ↗

Last 90 days

What sources are saying

The September 11, 2026 Datafolha showed Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in the first round and a 46% to 44% technical tie in the runoff, per InfoMoney and Seu Dinheiro.

Updated September 28, 2026 · 11 verified articles

Market transmission

Why it matters

Polls pointing to alternation support Ibovespa and real gains; government gains or a technical tie return risk premium, especially on the long curve.

Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.

Articles in chronological order

11
MACROBrazil

BTG/Nexus poll: Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44% in the runoff, a statistical tie six days before the election

The BTG/Nexus poll released on September 28 shows Lula with 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 44% in a possible runoff, a statistical tie within the two-point margin of error. According to Money Times, in the first round Lula has 42% and Flávio 37%, a five-point lead, and 87% of voters who name a candidate say they will not change their vote. The survey interviewed 2,000 voters between September 25 and 27, was commissioned by Banco BTG Pactual and is registered with the electoral court under number BR-07557/2026.

3 sourcesSep 28, 2026
MACROBrazil

In a letter to Rubio, 31 US lawmakers accuse the Trump administration of trying to interfere in the Brazilian election

A group of 31 US lawmakers sent a letter on September 24 to Secretary of State Marco Rubio accusing the Donald Trump administration of trying to interfere in the Brazilian presidential election and expressing concern about democracy in Brazil. The letter was released a few days before the first round, amid polls showing a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.

4 sourcesSep 24, 2026
MACROBrazil

AtlasIntel poll: Lula has 47.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4% in the runoff, a technical tie ten days before the election

The AtlasIntel poll commissioned by Bloomberg and released on September 23 shows Lula with 47.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 47.4% in the runoff, a technical tie within the 1-point margin, with 4.9% blank, null and undecided. In valid votes, Gazeta do Povo reports 50.2% to 49.8% in the runoff and 46.3% to 43.9% in the first round. Lula beats the other rivals: 47.6% to 42.2% against Zema, 46.6% to 44% against Caiado and 46.2% to 39.4% against Cury. The poll had 5,015 interviews from September 17 to 22, TSE registration BR-04739/2026.

3 sourcesSep 23, 2026
MACROBrazil

Quaest poll: Lula 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro 33% in the first round; Flávio 42% and Lula 41% in the runoff

The Quaest poll released on September 21 shows Lula at 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round, followed by Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (4%), Renan Santos (3%) and Romeu Zema (1%). In the runoff Flávio has 42% and Lula 41%, a tie within the 2-point margin. Rejection is 56% for Flávio and 55% for Lula. The poll had 2,004 in-person interviews between September 17 and 20, TSE registration BR-06004/2026.

5 sourcesSep 21, 2026
MACROBrazil

In New York, Lula says he will only apply the Reciprocity Law if there is no deal with the US and likens Trump to an emperor

In an interview with CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour on September 21, on the eve of the UN General Assembly, Lula said Brazil will not apply the Reciprocity Law while it is negotiating with the United States and will only do so if there is no deal on tariffs. He said the tariff hike was based on lies, cited Brazil's trade deficit with the US, denied wanting a tariff war and described Trump's style as that of an emperor ruling by the law of the strongest.

3 sourcesSep 21, 2026
MACROBrazil

Durigan says government weighs having the Treasury buy old household debts at a discount via auctions

Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on September 18 that the government is studying a program in which the National Treasury buys old household debts, acquired at auction with steep discounts, to clear debtors' names and banks' balance sheets. The proposal will be presented to President Lula; according to Gazeta do Povo, the plan would target debts older than five years, with support from Emgea, from early 2027 and without compromising the fiscal target.

2 sourcesSep 19, 2026
MACROBrazil

Datafolha: Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44% in the runoff, a technical tie, and 39% to 36% in the first round

The Datafolha poll released on September 17 shows Lula with 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 44% in the runoff, identical to the September 11 figures and within the two point margin. In the first round Lula has 39% and Flávio 36%, followed by Augusto Cury with 6% and Ronaldo Caiado with 4%. There were 2,002 interviews between September 15 and 17, the first round after the Supreme Court session on the Vorcaro case.

5 sourcesSep 17, 2026
MACROBrazil

Government raises Bolsa Família by 15.04% to R$ 691 at a cost of R$ 22 billion in 2027, and the market reacts with a falling stock index and a stronger dollar

A decree signed on September 17 raises the minimum Bolsa Família benefit from R$ 600 to R$ 691 from October, restoring INPC inflation since March 2023. The cost is R$ 5.8 billion in 2026 and about R$ 22 billion in 2027, without raising the spending cap, according to the government. The Ibovespa lost as much as 3,600 points and the dollar rose before the market recovered; Justice André Mendonça, at the electoral court, rejected a suit against the increase. Update: on September 18 Gilmar Mendes validated the decree at the AGU's request, and Durigan said the offset will come from expense reallocations, including pensions, detailed on September 24.

14 sourcesSep 17, 2026
MACROBrazil

CNT/MDA: Lula has 47.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro 40% in the runoff, a lead outside the margin three weeks before the election

The CNT/MDA poll released on September 15 shows Lula with 47.3% against 40.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, with 10.2% blank and null and 2.5% undecided, a 7.3 point lead outside the 2.2 point margin; in the August round the score was 48.0% to 39.1%. Lula also beats Cury (45.3% to 38.4%), Caiado (46.4% to 37.3%), Zema (47.7% to 34.5%) and Renan Santos (47.3% to 33.9%); in the prompted first round he has 40.5% against 30.4% for Flávio, per Gazeta do Povo. There were 2,002 in-person interviews between September 9 and 13, TSE registration BR-06902/2026.

3 sourcesSep 15, 2026
MACROBrazil

Nexus poll: Lula has 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro 37% in the first round, and 47% to 46% in the runoff

The Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual and released on September 14 shows Lula with 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 37% in the prompted first round, followed by Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (2%); in the runoff, Lula has 47% against 46% for the senator, a technical tie, and beats Caiado 47% to 41%, Zema 49% to 38% or 39% and Cury 45% to 42%. Lula rose 3 points in the first round and 2 in the runoff versus the September 8 round; rejection is 48% for Lula and 50% for Flávio and government approval went from 45% to 47%. There were 2,003 phone interviews between September 11 and 13, a 2 point margin, TSE registration BR-04076/2026.

3 sourcesSep 14, 2026
MACROBrazil

Datafolha: Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in the first round, with a 46% to 44% technical tie in the runoff

A Datafolha poll released on September 11 shows Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% of first-round voting intentions (43% to 38% of valid votes), a 4-point gap against 5 in the September 3 round, and a technical tie in the runoff at 46% to 44%; the poll surveyed 2,002 voters between September 8 and 10, with a 2-point margin, and in São Paulo shows Tarcísio de Freitas at 49% against 29% for Fernando Haddad.

5 sourcesSep 11, 2026