The October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.
Last 90 days
The September 11, 2026 Datafolha showed Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in the first round and a 46% to 44% technical tie in the runoff, per InfoMoney and Seu Dinheiro.
Updated October 28, 2026 · 36 verified articles
Market transmission
Polls pointing to alternation support Ibovespa and real gains; government gains or a technical tie return risk premium, especially on the long curve.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) traveled to the United States less than 48 hours after losing the presidential election, without surrendering to the Federal Police the passports Justice Alexandre de Moraes had ordered handed over, according to Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil.
The Ibovespa closed down 13.88% at 176,608.23 points on October 26, and the dollar rose 8.21% to R$ 5.4027, in a session that triggered a circuit breaker, the first since 2020, on the first trading day after Lula reelection, according to Agência Brasil, Exame and CNN Brasil.
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) said on October 26 that the Federal Police summoned him to surrender his passports and that he is barred from leaving the country, on the order of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes in a court investigation, according to Gazeta do Povo and Money Times.
US President Donald Trump said on October 26 that the Brazilian election looked rigged, questioning the extension of voting hours, and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin called the remark mistaken, according to Agência Brasil, Gazeta do Povo and Money Times.
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) said he does not recognize Lula victory and that his legal team will seek to annul the election, citing the extension of voting until 7 p.m. ordered by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin where polls were still open, according to Agência Brasil, CNN Brasil and the Supreme Court.
After Lula reelection, EWZ, the main Brazil ETF in New York, was down nearly 20% in off-hours trading, the real was losing about 10% in CME contracts and Petrobras and Itaú ADRs were down more than 15%, according to CNN Brasil, InfoMoney, Exame and Bloomberg Línea.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) was reelected president in the October 25 runoff, with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and more than 64 million votes, according to Agência Brasil, Bloomberg Línea, InfoMoney and Money Times.
The Vox poll shows Lula at 50.6% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 49.4% of valid votes in the runoff, a statistical tie. The survey interviewed 2,100 voters from October 20 to 22, with a 2.15-point margin, according to CNN Brasil and Exame.
The Gerp poll released on October 21 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 53% and Lula at 47% of valid votes in the runoff. The survey interviewed 2,400 voters by phone from October 19 to 21, with a 2-point margin, according to CNN Brasil and Exame.
The Quaest poll released on October 21 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44% of runoff voting intentions, a statistical tie. That day the Ibovespa fell 0.86% to 206,495 points and the dollar rose 0.17% to R$ 5.027, according to InfoMoney, Poder360 and Investidor10.
The BTG/Nexus poll released on October 19 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7% of valid votes in the runoff, a statistical tie. The survey interviewed 2,002 voters by phone from October 16 to 18, with a 2-point margin, according to CNN Brasil and Times Brasil.
The Ipespe/Abrapel poll released on October 17 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 51.2% and Lula at 48.8% of valid votes in the runoff. The survey interviewed 1,500 voters from October 13 to 15, with a 2.6-point margin of error, according to Money Times and Times Brasil.
The Datafolha poll released on October 15 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 45% of total votes in the runoff. In valid votes, Flávio has 51% and Lula 49%, a statistical tie.
The Quaest poll released on October 14 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44% of total votes in the presidential runoff. With a 2-percentage-point margin of error, the two are in a statistical tie.
Candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) announced on October 13 that he will vote for the amendment ending the six-day work week and argued the government should pay compensation to companies. The Senate floor first-round vote is scheduled for October 14 and requires 49 of 81 votes.
Rio de Janeiro's electoral court recounted the governor votes on October 10, after the TSE annulled 274,411 votes cast for Anthony Garotinho. With the new count, Douglas Ruas (PL) has 50.88% of valid votes and won in the first round. The formal proclamation is scheduled for October 15.
The first Datafolha poll after the first round, released on October 8, shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 52% of valid votes and Lula (PT) with 48% in the runoff. In total votes, the score is 49% to 45%. The poll interviewed 2,520 people, with a 2-point margin of error.
Foreign investors poured R$ 10.06 billion into Brazilian stocks on October 5, the first session after the first round, the largest daily inflow in the series Bloomberg has tracked since 2008. That day the Ibovespa rose 7.7% to a record close.
The Organization of American States' electoral observation mission released its preliminary assessment of Brazil's first round on October 6. The report praised the vote as a civic and peaceful day and flagged concern over disinformation during the campaign.
PL elected 121 federal deputies and will hold the largest bloc in the Chamber from 2027, up from 99 elected in 2022. The PT, PCdoB and PV federation came second with 88. Turnover was 35.67%, with 183 newcomers among the 513 deputies, according to Agência Câmara.
The Ibovespa closed Monday, October 5, at 206,911.89 points, up 7.70% and a record close, its first time above 200,000 points. The dollar fell about 4.1% and closed near R$ 5.00. It was the first session after the first round, in which Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula; banks and Petrobras led the gains.
With more than 99.9% of polling sections counted, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had about 47% of valid votes and Lula (PT) about 45%. The two face each other in an October 25 runoff. Flávio beat election-eve polls that had Lula ahead, and abstention reached 21.07% of the electorate.
PL elected 19 senators on Sunday and is set to hold 28 seats in 2027, the largest caucus at the start of a term since 1988, according to Agência Senado. The party will hold about a third of the Senate. Of the 32 senators seeking reelection, only 14 won.
The race for governor was decided in the first round in 20 states. Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, Tocantins and the Federal District go to a runoff on October 25. Tarcísio de Freitas was reelected in São Paulo.
The last AtlasIntel poll before the first round, released on October 3, shows Lula with 46.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 43.8% of total votes, or 47% to 44.1% of valid votes, according to Money Times, InfoMoney and CNN Brasil. In the runoff simulation, Lula has 50.1% and Flávio 49.9% of valid votes, a statistical tie within the 1-point margin of error. The poll is registered with the electoral court under number BR-00999/2026.
The BTG/Nexus poll released on September 28 shows Lula with 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 44% in a possible runoff, a statistical tie within the two-point margin of error. According to Money Times, in the first round Lula has 42% and Flávio 37%, a five-point lead, and 87% of voters who name a candidate say they will not change their vote. The survey interviewed 2,000 voters between September 25 and 27, was commissioned by Banco BTG Pactual and is registered with the electoral court under number BR-07557/2026.
A group of 31 US lawmakers sent a letter on September 24 to Secretary of State Marco Rubio accusing the Donald Trump administration of trying to interfere in the Brazilian presidential election and expressing concern about democracy in Brazil. The letter was released a few days before the first round, amid polls showing a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
The AtlasIntel poll commissioned by Bloomberg and released on September 23 shows Lula with 47.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 47.4% in the runoff, a technical tie within the 1-point margin, with 4.9% blank, null and undecided. In valid votes, Gazeta do Povo reports 50.2% to 49.8% in the runoff and 46.3% to 43.9% in the first round. Lula beats the other rivals: 47.6% to 42.2% against Zema, 46.6% to 44% against Caiado and 46.2% to 39.4% against Cury. The poll had 5,015 interviews from September 17 to 22, TSE registration BR-04739/2026.
The Quaest poll released on September 21 shows Lula at 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round, followed by Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (4%), Renan Santos (3%) and Romeu Zema (1%). In the runoff Flávio has 42% and Lula 41%, a tie within the 2-point margin. Rejection is 56% for Flávio and 55% for Lula. The poll had 2,004 in-person interviews between September 17 and 20, TSE registration BR-06004/2026.
In an interview with CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour on September 21, on the eve of the UN General Assembly, Lula said Brazil will not apply the Reciprocity Law while it is negotiating with the United States and will only do so if there is no deal on tariffs. He said the tariff hike was based on lies, cited Brazil's trade deficit with the US, denied wanting a tariff war and described Trump's style as that of an emperor ruling by the law of the strongest.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on September 18 that the government is studying a program in which the National Treasury buys old household debts, acquired at auction with steep discounts, to clear debtors' names and banks' balance sheets. The proposal will be presented to President Lula; according to Gazeta do Povo, the plan would target debts older than five years, with support from Emgea, from early 2027 and without compromising the fiscal target.
The Datafolha poll released on September 17 shows Lula with 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 44% in the runoff, identical to the September 11 figures and within the two point margin. In the first round Lula has 39% and Flávio 36%, followed by Augusto Cury with 6% and Ronaldo Caiado with 4%. There were 2,002 interviews between September 15 and 17, the first round after the Supreme Court session on the Vorcaro case.
A decree signed on September 17 raises the minimum Bolsa Família benefit from R$ 600 to R$ 691 from October, restoring INPC inflation since March 2023. The cost is R$ 5.8 billion in 2026 and about R$ 22 billion in 2027, without raising the spending cap, according to the government. The Ibovespa lost as much as 3,600 points and the dollar rose before the market recovered; Justice André Mendonça, at the electoral court, rejected a suit against the increase. Update: on September 18 Gilmar Mendes validated the decree at the AGU's request, and Durigan said the offset will come from expense reallocations, including pensions, detailed on September 24.
The CNT/MDA poll released on September 15 shows Lula with 47.3% against 40.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, with 10.2% blank and null and 2.5% undecided, a 7.3 point lead outside the 2.2 point margin; in the August round the score was 48.0% to 39.1%. Lula also beats Cury (45.3% to 38.4%), Caiado (46.4% to 37.3%), Zema (47.7% to 34.5%) and Renan Santos (47.3% to 33.9%); in the prompted first round he has 40.5% against 30.4% for Flávio, per Gazeta do Povo. There were 2,002 in-person interviews between September 9 and 13, TSE registration BR-06902/2026.
The Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual and released on September 14 shows Lula with 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 37% in the prompted first round, followed by Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (2%); in the runoff, Lula has 47% against 46% for the senator, a technical tie, and beats Caiado 47% to 41%, Zema 49% to 38% or 39% and Cury 45% to 42%. Lula rose 3 points in the first round and 2 in the runoff versus the September 8 round; rejection is 48% for Lula and 50% for Flávio and government approval went from 45% to 47%. There were 2,003 phone interviews between September 11 and 13, a 2 point margin, TSE registration BR-04076/2026.
A Datafolha poll released on September 11 shows Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% of first-round voting intentions (43% to 38% of valid votes), a 4-point gap against 5 in the September 3 round, and a technical tie in the runoff at 46% to 44%; the poll surveyed 2,002 voters between September 8 and 10, with a 2-point margin, and in São Paulo shows Tarcísio de Freitas at 49% against 29% for Fernando Haddad.