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Macro & EconomiesMacro

Inflation

Change in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.

24articles
39material mentions
12connections
12
MacroSelic rate9 shared articles ↗MacroGDP7 shared articles ↗AssetOil3 shared articles ↗OrganizationPetrobras3 shared articles ↗MacroYield Curve3 shared articles ↗ThemeFuel Policy2 shared articles ↗ThemePower Grid2 shared articles ↗AssetHGLG112 shared articles ↗AssetNTN-B 20352 shared articles ↗MacroPublic Debt2 shared articles ↗PersonGabriel Galípolo1 shared article ↗ThemeCredit Stress1 shared article ↗

Last 90 days

What sources are saying

The IPCA-15 posted 0.40% deflation in August, with the 12-month figure decelerating from 4.52% to 4.24% — driven by electricity's 6.25% drop on the Itaipu bonus, a one-off effect coverage treats as transitory. The negative preview lands with the Selic at 14% and refuels the cuts debate.

Updated September 26, 2026 · 20 verified articles

Market transmission

Why it matters

Current and expected inflation affects rates, fixed income, capital costs, consumption and monetary policy.

Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.

Articles in chronological order

24
MACROBrazil

Aneel sets a green tariff flag for October, ending five months of the yellow flag extra charge on power bills

The National Electric Energy Agency set on September 25 the green tariff flag for October power bills, with no extra charge. The yellow flag, which added R$ 1.885 per 100 kWh consumed, had been in place for five months. According to Aneel, increased rainfall, especially in the South and Southeast, stabilized hydroelectric reservoirs and reduced the need to dispatch costlier thermal plants.

5 sourcesSep 25, 2026
MACROBrazil

IPCA-15 rises 0.70% in September, above expectations, driven by electricity, and reaches 4.47% over 12 months

The IPCA-15, the preview of official inflation, rose 0.70% in September, after a 0.40% drop in August, according to IBGE, the highest rate since April and above the median market forecast. Residential electricity rose 7.42% with the end of the Itaipu bonus on power bills, lifting housing 2.07%; without electricity, the index would have been 0.41%. Over 12 months, the preview reaches 4.47%, from 4.24% the previous month.

4 sourcesSep 25, 2026
MACROBrazil

Central bank sees a 90% chance of inflation breaching the target ceiling in 2026, and Galípolo warns of predatory credit offers

The Monetary Policy Report released by the central bank on September 24 raised from 79% to 90% the probability of 2026 IPCA inflation ending above the 4.5% target ceiling; for 2027, the chance rose from 28% to 33%. At the report presentation, central bank governor Gabriel Galípolo said he sees aggressive and even predatory credit offers, with household debt and debt service at high levels and rising defaults, and said the central bank is studying measures and will increase frictions in credit granting.

7 sourcesSep 24, 2026
MACROBrazil

Finance Ministry cuts its 2026 GDP forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and IPCA to 4.9% in the Macrofiscal Bulletin

The Macrofiscal Bulletin of the Economic Policy Secretariat, released on September 22, cut the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and 2027 from 2.5% to 2.3%. The revision is concentrated in services (from 2.4% to 1.8%) and industry (from 2.1% to 1.7%), while agriculture rises from 1.8% to 2.8%. The 2026 IPCA forecast fell from 5.1% to 4.9% and 2027 rose from 3.6% to 3.8%. The SPE cites the weak carry-over from the first half, the lagged transmission of monetary policy and the record share of household income committed to debt service.

4 sourcesSep 22, 2026
MACROBrazil

Copom minutes see elevated inflation risks, back restrictive rates for longer and project 5.2% IPCA for 2026

The minutes of the September 15 and 16 meeting, released on September 22, explain the unanimous quarter-point Selic cut to 13.75% by the slowdown in cycle-sensitive sectors and the loss of momentum in inflation, but state that elevated inflation risks and unanchored expectations require restrictive monetary policy for longer. The committee projects IPCA of 5.2% in 2026, 3.9% in 2027 and 3.2% in the first quarter of 2028, cites higher external uncertainty from Middle East tensions and ties next steps to the path of inflation.

3 sourcesSep 22, 2026
MACROBrazil

Focus survey cuts the 2026 Selic to 13.50%, lifts IPCA to 4.92% and trims GDP to 1.88%

The September 21 Focus survey, the first reading after the Copom quarter-point cut, moved the median Selic for end-2026 from 13.75% to 13.50%, with 12.00% in 2027 and 10.50% in 2028. The 2026 IPCA projection rose from 4.90% to 4.92%, above the target ceiling, and 2027 stayed at 4.30%. GDP for 2026 slipped from 1.89% to 1.88% and 2027 from 1.45% to 1.43%; the exchange rate stayed at R$ 5.20 for the 14th week.

3 sourcesSep 21, 2026
MACROGlobal

Houthis strike an Aramco facility in Yanbu and targets in Riyadh; Saudi Arabia suspends shipments at the port

Yemen's Houthis said on September 19 they had attacked a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, on the Red Sea, and targets in Riyadh with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones; the capital's Civil Defense issued its first air alerts since the recent escalation and explosions were reported near the airport. Saudi Arabia suspended shipments at the port of Yanbu, the outlet of the East-West pipeline, which moves about 4 million barrels a day. Brent closed Friday at US$ 104.87.

3 sourcesSep 19, 2026
MACROBrazil

Aneel raises the average 2026 power tariff effect to 9.4%, nearly double projected inflation

The third 2026 edition of Aneel's InfoTarifas bulletin projects an average tariff effect of 9.4% for the year, up from 8.6% in the previous edition and above projected IGP-M (4.4%) and IPCA (5.0%). Financial components account for 4.7 points, sector charges 1.6, energy purchases 1.1, transmission 0.9 and Parcela B 0.8. Distributing about R$ 5.5 billion in UBP funds to utilities in the Sudam and Sudene areas cut the pressure by 1.9 points.

2 sourcesSep 18, 2026
MACROBrazil

Conab closes the 2025/26 crop at a record 361.7 million tonnes, with soybeans at 180.4 million

The 12th and final Conab survey for the 2025/26 crop, released on September 15, estimates grain output of 361.7 million tonnes, up 2.6% from the previous cycle and 0.3% from August, on a planted area of 83.5 million hectares (+1.7%). Soybeans reach a record 180.4 million tonnes (+5.2%), cotton 4.14 million (+1.5%) and sorghum 7.35 million; corn grows 2% to 144 million, while rice (11.08 million, -13.2%), beans (2.95 million, -3.6%) and wheat (5.74 million, -27.1%) decline; soybean exports are projected at a record 116.2 million tonnes.

2 sourcesSep 15, 2026
MACROBrazil

Focus: median 2026 IPCA forecast falls to 4.90%, first time below 5%, and the market expects Selic at 13.75% this week

The September 14 Focus survey put the median forecast for 2026 IPCA at 4.90%, from 5.00% the previous week and 5.02% four weeks earlier, the first reading below 5% this year, after the 0.32% deflation in August; the 2027 forecast rose to 4.30%. The market expects a 0.25 point Selic cut to 13.75% at the September 15-16 Copom meeting and sees the rate at 13.75% at end-2026; the median 2026 GDP forecast fell to 1.89% and 2027 to 1.45%, with the dollar projected at R$ 5.20 for the 13th week.

2 sourcesSep 14, 2026
MACROBrazil

IPCA falls 0.32% in August, the deepest deflation in four years, taking 12-month inflation to 4.22%, below forecasts

The IPCA fell 0.32% in August, the deepest monthly deflation in four years, driven by the Itaipu bonus on power bills (electricity -7.63%) and declines in food and transport, per IBGE; the median forecast was -0.29%. Twelve-month inflation eased from 4.44% to 4.22%, below the 4.27% projected, and Treasury bond yields fell up to 15 basis points; BofA now projects a 13.25% Selic at year-end, with 0.25-point cuts at every remaining meeting.

7 sourcesSep 11, 2026
MACROBrazil

Government cuts R$ 0.63 of PIS/Cofins on gasoline, zeroes ethanol taxes and creates a R$ 1 diesel subsidy, at R$ 7bn a month

With Brent above US$ 100, Lula signed on September 9 a decree cutting PIS/Pasep and Cofins on gasoline by R$ 0.63 a litre and zeroing hydrous ethanol rates, plus provisional measure 1,389 opening R$ 6.6 billion in extraordinary credit to subsidise diesel by R$ 1 a litre; the cost is R$ 7 billion a month. Petrobras dropped its R$ 0.44 discount and raised gasoline by R$ 0.19 from September 10, with no effect at the pump.

11 sourcesSep 09, 2026