MACROBrazil
IPCA slows to 0.14% in October, but 12-month inflation stands at 4.63%, above the ceiling
The IPCA rose 0.14% in October after 0.82% in September, according to IBGE; over 12 months, inflation reached 4.63%, above the 4.5% target ceiling.
Macro & EconomiesMacro
Inflation
Change in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.
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62material mentions
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Last 90 days
What sources are saying
The IPCA-15 posted 0.40% deflation in August, with the 12-month figure decelerating from 4.52% to 4.24% — driven by electricity's 6.25% drop on the Itaipu bonus, a one-off effect coverage treats as transitory. The negative preview lands with the Selic at 14% and refuels the cuts debate.
Updated November 13, 2026 · 34 verified articles
Market transmission
Why it matters
Current and expected inflation affects rates, fixed income, capital costs, consumption and monetary policy.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.Articles in chronological order
38MACROBrazil
Copom minutes say slowdown has not contained inflation and back tight rates for longer
The minutes of the November 4 Copom meeting, released on November 10, say inflation re-accelerated despite slower activity and that the Selic should stay restrictive for longer, citing supply shocks such as oil, El Niño, the end of the 6x1 work schedule and the weaker real, according to Agência Brasil and Gazeta do Povo.
MACROBrazil
Focus raises 2026 Selic forecast to 13.75% and 2027 inflation to 4.90%
The November 9 Focus survey raised the end-2026 Selic forecast from 13.5% to 13.75%, with no cuts through December, and the 2027 IPCA forecast from 4.76% to 4.90%, according to Agência Brasil, CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense.
MACROBrazil
XP raises 2027 inflation forecast to 5.5% and cuts GDP to 0.3%
XP raised its 2027 inflation forecast from 4.4% to 5.5% and cut its GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.3%, according to InfoMoney and CNN Brasil on November 6.
MACROBrazil
IPCA-15 slows to 0.32% in October, with 4.62% over 12 months
The IPCA-15, a preview of official inflation, rose 0.32% in October from 0.70% in September, according to IBGE, and reached 4.62% over 12 months, up from 4.47% the previous month, according to Agência Brasil and Correio Braziliense.
MACROBrazil
Focus: market cuts 2026 GDP forecast to 1.83% and keeps IPCA at 5.22%
The Central Bank's Focus survey of October 19 showed the median 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.83%, down from 1.85% a week earlier, and the 2026 IPCA forecast steady at 5.22%, according to Correio Braziliense and Investidor10.
MACROGlobal
US consumer inflation rises 0.6% in September, 3.7% over 12 months
The US consumer price index rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months, according to the Labor Department, in data released on October 14. Core rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over 12 months, according to CNBC and Money Times.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey raises 2026 IPCA forecast to 5.22%, a fourth straight increase, and lowers the year-end Selic forecast to 13.25%
The central bank's Focus survey of October 13 raised the median 2026 IPCA forecast from 5.01% to 5.22%, a fourth straight weekly increase, after September's above-forecast IPCA. The year-end 2026 Selic forecast fell from 13.50% to 13.25%.
MACROBrazil
Government zeroes PIS/Cofins and Cide taxes on gasoline for 30 days, raising the relief to R$ 0.89 per liter
The government zeroed PIS/Pasep, Cofins and Cide-Combustíveis rates on gasoline for 30 days, raising the relief from R$ 0.63 to R$ 0.89 per liter. The package also gives an extra R$ 1.40 per liter to imported diesel and keeps the ethanol benefit. The estimated cost is R$ 5.2 billion over 30 days.
MACROBrazil
Brazil's IPCA rises 0.82% in September, above forecasts, and reaches 4.58% over 12 months, above the target ceiling
Official inflation measured by the IPCA rose 0.82% in September after deflation in August, according to IBGE. It is the highest monthly rate since March and came in above market forecasts. Over 12 months, the index reaches 4.58%, above the 4.5% target ceiling.
MACROBrazil
IGP-DI price index accelerates to 1.50% in September, driven by farm commodities and energy
The IGP-DI, calculated by FGV, rose 1.50% in September after 0.06% in August, and is up 3.80% over 12 months. The producer price index rose 1.95%, driven by soybeans, corn and gasoline, and the consumer price index rose 0.67%.
MACROBrazil
Focus: economists raise 2026 inflation forecast to 5.01%, a third straight increase, and keep the Selic at 13.50% at year-end
The October 5 Focus survey showed the median 2026 IPCA forecast at 5.01%, a third straight increase and back above 5%. For 2027, the forecast stood at 4.30%. The projected Selic for end-2026 held at 13.50%, with 12.00% for 2027, and 2026 GDP growth moved to 1.85%.
MACROBrazil
Producer prices rise 0.36% in August, after a 0.83% drop in July, IBGE says
The Producer Price Index, which measures factory-gate industrial prices, rose 0.36% in August after falling 0.83% in July, according to IBGE, as reported by Valor and Correio Braziliense on September 30. According to Correio Braziliense, the index is up 2.53% over 12 months.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey raises the 2026 IPCA forecast from 4.92% to 4.99%, close to 5%
The Focus survey released by the central bank on September 28 raised the median 2026 IPCA forecast from 4.92% to 4.99%, above the 4.5% target ceiling and close to 5%. The revision comes after September IPCA-15 rose 0.70%, above expectations, and after the Monetary Policy Report estimated a 90% chance of breaching the ceiling this year.
MACROBrazil
Aneel sets a green tariff flag for October, ending five months of the yellow flag extra charge on power bills
The National Electric Energy Agency set on September 25 the green tariff flag for October power bills, with no extra charge. The yellow flag, which added R$ 1.885 per 100 kWh consumed, had been in place for five months. According to Aneel, increased rainfall, especially in the South and Southeast, stabilized hydroelectric reservoirs and reduced the need to dispatch costlier thermal plants.
MACROBrazil
IPCA-15 rises 0.70% in September, above expectations, driven by electricity, and reaches 4.47% over 12 months
The IPCA-15, the preview of official inflation, rose 0.70% in September, after a 0.40% drop in August, according to IBGE, the highest rate since April and above the median market forecast. Residential electricity rose 7.42% with the end of the Itaipu bonus on power bills, lifting housing 2.07%; without electricity, the index would have been 0.41%. Over 12 months, the preview reaches 4.47%, from 4.24% the previous month.
MACROBrazil
Central bank sees a 90% chance of inflation breaching the target ceiling in 2026, and Galípolo warns of predatory credit offers
The Monetary Policy Report released by the central bank on September 24 raised from 79% to 90% the probability of 2026 IPCA inflation ending above the 4.5% target ceiling; for 2027, the chance rose from 28% to 33%. At the report presentation, central bank governor Gabriel Galípolo said he sees aggressive and even predatory credit offers, with household debt and debt service at high levels and rising defaults, and said the central bank is studying measures and will increase frictions in credit granting.
MACROBrazil
Finance Ministry cuts its 2026 GDP forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and IPCA to 4.9% in the Macrofiscal Bulletin
The Macrofiscal Bulletin of the Economic Policy Secretariat, released on September 22, cut the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and 2027 from 2.5% to 2.3%. The revision is concentrated in services (from 2.4% to 1.8%) and industry (from 2.1% to 1.7%), while agriculture rises from 1.8% to 2.8%. The 2026 IPCA forecast fell from 5.1% to 4.9% and 2027 rose from 3.6% to 3.8%. The SPE cites the weak carry-over from the first half, the lagged transmission of monetary policy and the record share of household income committed to debt service.
MACROBrazil
Anac: average airfare rises 14.5% in August to R$ 776.87 per leg, with jet fuel 31.8% more expensive
Anac data released on September 22 show an average fare of R$ 776.87 per leg in August, up 14.5% in real terms from August 2025 and 10.4% from August 2024, according to CNN Brasil (Correio Braziliense cites 15.1% versus 2024). Jet fuel cost R$ 4.98 per liter, 31.8% above a year earlier. In August, 34.8% of seats were sold below R$ 500 and 9.2% above R$ 1,500.
MACROBrazil
Copom minutes see elevated inflation risks, back restrictive rates for longer and project 5.2% IPCA for 2026
The minutes of the September 15 and 16 meeting, released on September 22, explain the unanimous quarter-point Selic cut to 13.75% by the slowdown in cycle-sensitive sectors and the loss of momentum in inflation, but state that elevated inflation risks and unanchored expectations require restrictive monetary policy for longer. The committee projects IPCA of 5.2% in 2026, 3.9% in 2027 and 3.2% in the first quarter of 2028, cites higher external uncertainty from Middle East tensions and ties next steps to the path of inflation.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey cuts the 2026 Selic to 13.50%, lifts IPCA to 4.92% and trims GDP to 1.88%
The September 21 Focus survey, the first reading after the Copom quarter-point cut, moved the median Selic for end-2026 from 13.75% to 13.50%, with 12.00% in 2027 and 10.50% in 2028. The 2026 IPCA projection rose from 4.90% to 4.92%, above the target ceiling, and 2027 stayed at 4.30%. GDP for 2026 slipped from 1.89% to 1.88% and 2027 from 1.45% to 1.43%; the exchange rate stayed at R$ 5.20 for the 14th week.
MACROGlobal
Houthis strike an Aramco facility in Yanbu and targets in Riyadh; Saudi Arabia suspends shipments at the port
Yemen's Houthis said on September 19 they had attacked a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, on the Red Sea, and targets in Riyadh with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones; the capital's Civil Defense issued its first air alerts since the recent escalation and explosions were reported near the airport. Saudi Arabia suspended shipments at the port of Yanbu, the outlet of the East-West pipeline, which moves about 4 million barrels a day. Brent closed Friday at US$ 104.87.
MACROBrazil
Aneel raises the average 2026 power tariff effect to 9.4%, nearly double projected inflation
The third 2026 edition of Aneel's InfoTarifas bulletin projects an average tariff effect of 9.4% for the year, up from 8.6% in the previous edition and above projected IGP-M (4.4%) and IPCA (5.0%). Financial components account for 4.7 points, sector charges 1.6, energy purchases 1.1, transmission 0.9 and Parcela B 0.8. Distributing about R$ 5.5 billion in UBP funds to utilities in the Sudam and Sudene areas cut the pressure by 1.9 points.
MACROBrazil
Copom cuts the Selic to 13.75% unanimously and leaves the size of the cycle open
The Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Selic by 0.25 point, from 14% to 13.75% a year, in the fifth consecutive cut and the lowest level since March 2025. The statement says the total size of the cycle will be set in light of new information, without signalling the next step.
MACROBrazil
IGP-10 rises 1.47% in September, above expectations, and reverses the August deflation
The IGP-10 rose 1.47% in September after a 0.51% fall in August, above the 1.25% median expected by the market, according to FGV Ibre. The IPA rose 1.90%, with raw materials up 3.91%, soybeans 7.50% and iron ore 2.26%. Over 12 months the index accumulates 3.29%.
MACROBrazil
Conab closes the 2025/26 crop at a record 361.7 million tonnes, with soybeans at 180.4 million
The 12th and final Conab survey for the 2025/26 crop, released on September 15, estimates grain output of 361.7 million tonnes, up 2.6% from the previous cycle and 0.3% from August, on a planted area of 83.5 million hectares (+1.7%). Soybeans reach a record 180.4 million tonnes (+5.2%), cotton 4.14 million (+1.5%) and sorghum 7.35 million; corn grows 2% to 144 million, while rice (11.08 million, -13.2%), beans (2.95 million, -3.6%) and wheat (5.74 million, -27.1%) decline; soybean exports are projected at a record 116.2 million tonnes.
MACROBrazil
Focus: median 2026 IPCA forecast falls to 4.90%, first time below 5%, and the market expects Selic at 13.75% this week
The September 14 Focus survey put the median forecast for 2026 IPCA at 4.90%, from 5.00% the previous week and 5.02% four weeks earlier, the first reading below 5% this year, after the 0.32% deflation in August; the 2027 forecast rose to 4.30%. The market expects a 0.25 point Selic cut to 13.75% at the September 15-16 Copom meeting and sees the rate at 13.75% at end-2026; the median 2026 GDP forecast fell to 1.89% and 2027 to 1.45%, with the dollar projected at R$ 5.20 for the 13th week.
MACROBrazil
IPCA falls 0.32% in August, the deepest deflation in four years, taking 12-month inflation to 4.22%, below forecasts
The IPCA fell 0.32% in August, the deepest monthly deflation in four years, driven by the Itaipu bonus on power bills (electricity -7.63%) and declines in food and transport, per IBGE; the median forecast was -0.29%. Twelve-month inflation eased from 4.44% to 4.22%, below the 4.27% projected, and Treasury bond yields fell up to 15 basis points; BofA now projects a 13.25% Selic at year-end, with 0.25-point cuts at every remaining meeting.
MACROBrazil
Services flat in July, industrial revenue down 2% and Copom options price 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut
Services volume was flat in July versus June and is up 2.4% over 12 months, the lowest since September 2024, per IBGE; real industrial revenue fell 2% in July, down 0.5% year to date, per CNI; and B3's Copom options, based on the September 8 session, price about 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut, from 14% to 13.75%, at the September 15-16 meeting.
MACROBrazil
Government cuts R$ 0.63 of PIS/Cofins on gasoline, zeroes ethanol taxes and creates a R$ 1 diesel subsidy, at R$ 7bn a month
With Brent above US$ 100, Lula signed on September 9 a decree cutting PIS/Pasep and Cofins on gasoline by R$ 0.63 a litre and zeroing hydrous ethanol rates, plus provisional measure 1,389 opening R$ 6.6 billion in extraordinary credit to subsidise diesel by R$ 1 a litre; the cost is R$ 7 billion a month. Petrobras dropped its R$ 0.44 discount and raised gasoline by R$ 0.19 from September 10, with no effect at the pump.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey trims the 2026 IPCA forecast to 5% for a second week and keeps the Selic at 13.75% a week before the Copom
The September 8 Focus survey, delayed by the holiday, showed the 2026 IPCA median falling from 5.01% to 5%, a second straight drop, with the Selic held at 13.75% for end-2026 and 12% for 2027, 2026 GDP at 1.93% and the exchange rate at R$ 5.20, a week before the September 15-16 Copom meeting.
MACROBrazil
Senate committee approves end of 6x1 work schedule; bill heads to floor
The Senate Constitution and Justice Committee approved on September 2 PEC 221/2019, which cuts the maximum weekly workweek from 44 to 40 hours and secures two rest days a week, per Agência Senado, CNN Brasil, Poder360 and Agência Brasil. The text, reported by Omar Aziz, heads to the floor, where it needs 49 votes in two rounds.
EMPRESASBrazil
Petrobras raises jet fuel price 13.9%, taking year-to-date increase to 53%
Petrobras raised the average price of jet fuel by 13.9% from September 1, attributing the rise to international quotations pressured by Middle East tensions, per InfoMoney, CNN Brasil, Valor and Agência Brasil. Per CNN, the increase is R$ 0.68 per liter and the cumulative rise since December reaches 53.3%.
MACROBrazil
IPCA-15 posts 0.40% deflation in August on the Itaipu bonus in power bills
The IPCA-15 posted 0.40% deflation in August, per IBGE, with the 12-month figure decelerating from 4.52% to 4.24%. The main driver was residential electricity, down 6.25% as the Itaipu bonus was credited on bills — a one-off effect coverage treats as transitory.
MACROBrazil
Focus survey holds 2026 IPCA at 5.02% and cuts 2027 GDP for a fourth week
The Focus survey released August 17 held the 2026 IPCA median at 5.02% and cut the 2027 GDP growth forecast from 1.52% to 1.50%, a fourth straight reduction. The 2027 IPCA median edged up to 4.24%.
RENDA FIXABrazil
Tesouro IPCA+ 2026 maturity returns about R$258 billion on Monday
Tesouro IPCA+ 2026 matures with payment scheduled for August 17, returning about R$258 billion to NTN-B holders. Most of it sits with institutional investors; the retail Tesouro Direto share is around R$13 billion.
ENERGIABrazil
Decree opens the free power market to low-voltage consumers
The decree allows low-voltage consumers to choose their electricity supplier. The opening starts in November 2027 for small commercial and industrial users and reaches households in November 2028.
INFLAÇÃOBrazil
Focus survey lowers its inflation forecast for a sixth week
The median market forecast for 2026 inflation declined again, reaching 5.02%. The growth estimate also fell, while the Selic and dollar forecasts were unchanged from the previous week.