Legislative and regulatory rules for Brazil's fuel market, including commercialization and taxation.
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Ultrapar posted net income of R$ 2.697 billion in 3Q26, up 249%, with recurring adjusted Ebitda of R$ 3.1 billion, up 74%, and announced R$ 1.085 billion in dividends, about R$ 1 per share.
Updated November 13, 2026 · 29 verified articles
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Changes to the fuel framework affect distributor and refining margins, tax revenue and, through exemptions, the fiscal risk premium in the yield curve.
Explanatory mechanism, not a forecast or recommendation.Ultrapar posted net income of R$ 2.697 billion in 3Q26, up 249%, with recurring adjusted Ebitda of R$ 3.1 billion, up 74%, and announced R$ 1.085 billion in dividends, about R$ 1 per share.
Bill PLP 299/2026, filed by senator Jaques Wagner, cuts the real spending growth limit from 2.5% to 2% from 2027, trims tax breaks and removes up to R$ 10.5 billion of diesel subsidy from the 2026 target; the government estimates a R$ 50 billion to R$ 60 billion impact in 2027.
At the 3Q26 press call, director Angélica Laureano said Petrobras is discussing a possible temporary change to its gasoline and diesel commercial strategy, but the current strategy remains in force and no structural pricing change is planned.
Decree 13,159 of November 9 extends for 30 days, to December 9, 2026, the federal tax relief on gasoline and ethanol, cutting R$ 0.89 per liter of gasoline at an estimated cost of R$ 2.76 billion, according to the Finance Ministry, Agência Brasil and Gazeta do Povo.
The government issued Provisional Measure 1,400/2026, published in the Official Gazette on November 9, extending the Gás do Povo program to 2031, according to Agência Senado and Correio Braziliense.
Gecex extended the 12% tax on crude oil exports through December 31, 2026, in a resolution published in the Official Gazette on November 6, according to Correio Braziliense and InfoMoney.
Confaz approved on October 27 a fuel ICMS hike from February 1, 2027: gasoline from R$ 1.57 to R$ 1.64 per liter, diesel from R$ 1.17 to R$ 1.30 and cooking gas from R$ 1.47 to R$ 1.54 per kilo, according to Gazeta do Povo, Estado de Minas and CNN Brasil.
The government extended the R$ 2.12 per liter diesel subsidy for 30 days, announced on October 27, according to Agência Brasil and Correio Braziliense; a further extension depends on the international scenario.
Petrobras said it has received R$ 16 billion from federal fuel-price subsidy programs, according to reports by Reuters, Poder360, CNN Brasil and Investidor10 published on October 13 and 14.
The government zeroed PIS/Pasep, Cofins and Cide-Combustíveis rates on gasoline for 30 days, raising the relief from R$ 0.63 to R$ 0.89 per liter. The package also gives an extra R$ 1.40 per liter to imported diesel and keeps the ethanol benefit. The estimated cost is R$ 5.2 billion over 30 days.
Provisional Measure 1,395/2026, published in the official gazette on October 9, opens an extraordinary credit of R$ 7.52 billion for fuel production and import subsidies. R$ 6.17 billion goes to the road diesel subsidy and R$ 1.35 billion to the subsidy under MP 1,358/2026.
ANP signed a technical cooperation agreement with the finance departments of 22 states and the Federal District, brokered by Confaz, to expand access to fuel market tax data. Signatures were completed on October 7 and the agreement runs for ten years.
G7 countries announced on October 2 the release of up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves to curb prices, according to CNN Brasil and O Globo. According to CNN Brasil, the release takes place over four months, with priority to diesel in the first 20 days. Oil closed lower on the day, according to CNN Brasil and Estadão Conteúdo.
Petrobras raised the average price of jet fuel sold to distributors by 11.76% from October 1, from R$ 5.585 to R$ 6.242 per liter, according to Agência Brasil. Estadão, g1 and Reuters also reported the increase, which varies by delivery point between 11.6% and 12%. The adjustment follows higher oil prices, with Brent above US$ 100.
The government announced on September 28 an expansion of fuel price oversight, with fines that can reach R$ 500 million for abusive practices. The Justice Minister said there is no price control and that the goal is to avoid unjustified increases amid oil volatility. The measure adds to ANP fines and Senacon proceedings against distributors and gas stations.
Planning and Budget Minister Bruno Moretti said on September 24 that the government is inclined to keep the R$ 2.12 per liter diesel subsidy, which would expire this week, for another 30 days. The final decision depends on President Lula. The subsidy has two parts: R$ 1.12 per liter, set in a provisional measure that expires on September 26, and R$ 1 per liter announced early in the month, and the combined fuel measures cost about R$ 7 billion a month.
The Federal Revenue Service, the Gaeco prosecutors unit and the São Paulo Finance Department launched Operation Crédito Oculto on September 24, an offshoot of Carbono Oculto, with 32 warrants against 13 individuals and 19 companies in seven states. The investigation points to money laundering structures using investment funds, fintechs and shell companies to finance the purchase of a fuel distributor and conceal a sugar and ethanol mill; according to the Revenue Service, a traditional bank was used in a linked transaction. According to Bloomberg Línea, Banco Genial was among the targets.
The National Petroleum Agency said on September 23 that it imposed more than R$ 200 million in fines on fuel distributors for abusive price increases while provisional measures 1,340 and 1,349 were in force, between March and April. According to the agency, gross margins at some companies rose more than 1,350%. The decisions are first-instance administrative rulings and can be appealed; the action is coordinated with Senacon and consumer protection agencies.
The National Consumer Secretariat (Senacon), under the Justice Ministry, opened 70 administrative proceedings, published in the Official Gazette of September 21, over signs of fuel price increases without just cause, based on the Consumer Defense Code. Among the 12 targeted companies are the distributors Vibra, Ipiranga and Ale, plus gas stations; fines can reach R$ 14 million per company. The ANP had forwarded about 330 complaints. Agência Brasil emphasizes stations in RJ, ES, SP and PR with margin increases above 70% and a 15-day deadline for defense; Gazeta do Povo cites seven states and 20 days.
Between September 19 and 20 Ukraine launched the largest drone attack ever recorded on the Moscow region. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 450 drones aimed at the capital were shot down, and Russia says it downed more than 1,600 since Saturday. The Moscow refinery, which processed 11.6 million tonnes of oil in 2024, was hit and caught fire; a residential building was damaged and 400 people were evacuated. Coverage reports two to three deaths in the region. The attack came on the last day of Russia's parliamentary election and despite the deal announced by Trump on not striking energy infrastructure.
Yemen's Houthis said on September 19 they had attacked a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, on the Red Sea, and targets in Riyadh with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones; the capital's Civil Defense issued its first air alerts since the recent escalation and explosions were reported near the airport. Saudi Arabia suspended shipments at the port of Yanbu, the outlet of the East-West pipeline, which moves about 4 million barrels a day. Brent closed Friday at US$ 104.87.
Vibra Energia disclosed a contract with Inpasa Agroindustrial to supply ethanol, with an estimated value of R$ 1.28 billion and a term through 2029. It is a related-party transaction because Inpasa CEO Éder Odvar Lopes sits on Vibra's board; the company says the terms are arm's length and in line with the market. Coverage differs on details: CNN Brasil describes anhydrous ethanol, signed September 15, running from June 1, 2026 to May 31, 2029; Money Times describes hydrous ethanol, signed September 10, running from September 1, 2026 to August 31, 2029.
Assaí (Sendas Distribuidora) signed a contract with Centro de Conveniências Millennium to buy 18 gas stations located at its São Paulo state stores for up to R$ 80 million: R$ 40 million after Cade approval, R$ 35 million at closing and R$ 5 million in earn-out. Operations transfer to the chain from July 31, 2027, and the target is a network of more than 100 stations.
Brent closed down 0.95% on September 17 at US$ 104.82 and was down a further 2.5% on the morning of September 18 at US$ 102.20, a third straight session of losses. Saudi Arabia began offering more cargoes to Asian refiners through ship to ship transfers in Oman and seeks to restore half the capacity of the East-West pipeline, which eased fears of shortages after the Houthi attacks.
Petrobras will raise the average price of diesel sold to distributors by R$ 1 a litre from September 17, but joined the new federal subsidy of R$ 1 a litre, valid for 30 days, which fully offsets the increase. The selling price to distributors is unchanged and the state company receives the subsidy. Update: on September 18 the board formally approved adhesion to the MP 1,391 subsidy, and the company said it received R$ 448 million from the gasoline subsidy, with R$ 9.9 billion accumulated under the programs.
Petrobras said in a September 12 statement that it received R$ 2.57 billion from the Economic Subsidy Programme for diesel sales, R$ 643.8 million for sales from June 1 to 15 under Provisional Measure 1,358 and R$ 1.92 billion for sales from June 16 to 30 under Provisional Measure 1,363; with these instalments, the amount the company has received across the diesel, gasoline and LPG subsidy programmes reaches about R$ 9.5 billion, per InfoMoney and Reuters via Money Times.
On the night of September 9 Petrobras announced the end of a R$ 0.44-per-litre discount on gasoline A plus an extra R$ 0.19 increase, taking the price to distributors to R$ 3.24; in the early hours of September 10 it backtracked, limiting the increase to the end of the subsidy, at R$ 3.05, after the government widened the federal tax cut from R$ 0.44 to R$ 0.63 per litre. Itaú BBA and Bradesco BBI flagged a governance warning less than a month before the election.
With Brent above US$ 100, Lula signed on September 9 a decree cutting PIS/Pasep and Cofins on gasoline by R$ 0.63 a litre and zeroing hydrous ethanol rates, plus provisional measure 1,389 opening R$ 6.6 billion in extraordinary credit to subsidise diesel by R$ 1 a litre; the cost is R$ 7 billion a month. Petrobras dropped its R$ 0.44 discount and raised gasoline by R$ 0.19 from September 10, with no effect at the pump.
ANP's board approved on September 4 the nomination of 24 onshore exploratory blocks in the Potiguar Basin for future Permanent Offer cycles, per the agency itself, Estadão and InfoMoney. Among them is block POT-T-551, covering Tabuleiro do Norte in Ceará, where a farmer drilling a water well found a fluid confirmed as oil by ANP's research center. The blocks enter offer only after the 6th cycle, set for October 7, and after environmental analysis and a joint MME and MMA opinion.
Vibra Energia reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 14, with net profit sharply higher year over year, and the board approved a new interest-on-equity distribution. Exact payout figures differ across registered sources.
Brazil's Chamber of Deputies passed the fuel bill on the evening of August 12. The text incorporated provisions unrelated to its main subject that grant tax exemptions to other sectors, dubbed riders in legislative coverage.