Government is likely to keep the R$ 2.12 per liter diesel…

In brief

12 per liter diesel subsidy for another 30 days.

The final decision rests with President Lula.

Verified fact · material
Bruno Moretti said on September 24 that the government is inclined to keep the R$ 2.12 per liter diesel subsidy.
Signals continuity of the price policy.
Sources[02][03]
Verified fact · material
The expected extension is 30 days and the final decision depends on President Lula.
Sets the deadline and condition.
Sources[03][01]
Verified fact
According to Agência Brasil, the R$ 1.12 per liter portion expires on September 26 and the combined measures cost about R$ 7 billion a month.
Sizes the fiscal cost.
Sources[03]
Verified fact
According to Reuters, via Money Times, the government intends to remove the subsidy once the oil shock fades.
Indicates the exit from the policy.
Sources[01]
Verified fact · material
The Finance Ministry formalized by ordinance the extension of the R$ 2.12 per liter diesel subsidy for 30 days, from September 27 to October 26, the day after the runoff.
Confirms the extension and sets the deadline.
Sources[04][05][03]

Transmission to assets

The extension reduces the short-term risk of higher diesel prices and helps inflation, with a fiscal cost the bimonthly report already partly covers.

For Petrobras and importers, it keeps the price policy under intervention.

Inflação de curto prazo e preço do dieselpositive

The subsidy holds diesel pump prices.

Effect partly expected.

What would change the view: Extension confirmed by Lula.

macro40% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

Limits of the reporting