In brief
The Senate approved on September 2, with no changes of substance, bill PL 2,780/2024 establishing the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals, per Agência Senado, Poder360 and Money Times; reported by Eduardo Braga, the text goes to presidential signature without returning to the Chamber.
The policy creates the Mineral Activity Guarantee Fund with R$ 2 billion from the Union, R$ 5 billion in tax credits over five years for domestic processing, a national council for the sector's industrialization, a unified project registry and a low-carbon mineral certificate, per Agência Senado and Money Times.
Per Agência Senado, sector companies will allocate 0.2% of gross operating revenue to the fund and 0.3% to research and innovation for six years, and mineral research in critical-mineral areas will have a maximum ten-year term.
What we know
05Verified fact
Sector companies will allocate 0.2% of gross operating revenue to the fund and 0.3% to research for six years, per Agência Senado.
It is the counterpart miners pay for the framework.
Sources[01]Context
The text creates a national industrialization council, a unified project registry and a low-carbon mineral certificate, and caps research in critical-mineral areas at ten years, per Agência Senado.
Governance and the research term define how fast licenses turn into projects.
Sources[01]Verified fact · material
The approved text creates a council tied to the federal government with power to approve or reject deals that change control of critical-mineral miners, per Bloomberg Línea and Poder360.
It adds a government filter on sector M&A on top of the incentives already described.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
For ValeValeOrganizationBrazil's largest miner and one of the world's top iron ore and nickel producers, listed on B3 as VALE3. Jointly responsible, with BHP, for Samarco and for the reparation commitments from the Fundão dam collapse in Mariana.Open in the Market Map ↗, CBMM and rare-earth and lithium juniors, the framework lowers the cost of capital for processing projects in Brazil and creates demand for partnerships with processors; the 0.5% revenue counterpart is small against the incentives.
For trade policy, the country enters the US-China contest over critical mineral chains with its own instrument, just as it negotiates tariffs with Washington.
Portfolio impact
01A guarantee fund and tax credit lower the cost of capital and the risk of rare-earth, lithium and niobium processing projects in the country.
Positive and medium term, conditional on signature and regulation.
What would change the view: The read changes if the fund is vetoed or regulation delays the credits past 2027.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Presidential signature and possible vetoes.
- Regulation of the Fgam and the tax credit.
- Announcements of rare-earth and lithium processing projects.
- Regulation of the council and the criteria for approving changes of control in the sector.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The vote tally was not reported; approval came with no changes of substance.
- The annual fiscal impact of the credits was not detailed by the sources.