In brief
8 billion, with debentures down 35% from July and FIDCs more than doubling.
1%.
What we know
05Verified fact · material
Debentures totalled R$ 21.5 billion, 44.1% of the total and down 35.2% from July; FIDCs raised R$ 14.5 billion, up 116% from July and 146.3% in a year; FIIs fell to R$ 5.1 billion from R$ 11.7 billion in July.
The mix shifted from direct corporate debt to receivables vehicles.
Context
Anbima attributed the change in the funding mix to greater selectivity in credit, with receivables linked instruments gaining share.
Confirms the effect of stressed credit cases on appetite for debentures.
Sources[02]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Investment banks and credit managers see fewer debentures and more structuring of FIDCs and certificates.
For mid rated issuers the cost of funding tends to rise; for FIIs the primary market cooled after the July peak.
Portfolio impact
02The FII primary market fell 56% from July.
Fewer issuances, less dilution in the short term.
What would change the view: May reverse with the Selic decline.
Selectivity shifts funding to receivables backed vehicles.
Spreads on lower rated debentures tend to widen.
What would change the view: Depends on new credit events.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- October Anbima bulletin covering September
- Debenture spreads in the secondary market
- New FII issuances after the Selic cut
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Whether the debenture drop is seasonal or reflects lasting risk aversion
- The effect of the Selic cutting cycle on appetite for private credit