In brief

00% in the first hike in three years, with a unanimous vote.

Projections point to one more hike in 2026 and no cut before 2028.

Trump reacted by demanding a 1% rate and attacking Kevin Warsh.

What we know

05

  1. Verified fact · material

    The FOMC raised the fed funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023.

    Reverses the direction of US monetary policy after three years.

    Sources[01][02][03][04]

  2. Verified fact · material

    The median projection of officials points to at least one more hike in 2026, with the rate at 4.1% at year end, versus 3.8% in the June projection, and no cut before 2028.

    Extends the higher for longer scenario.

    Sources[02][08]

  3. Verified fact · material

    The statement says the decision will support a faster return of inflation to the 2% target; Kevin Warsh had warned that inflation was not slowing meaningfully after the August core came in above expectations.

    Explains the motivation for the hike and the focus on inflation.

    Sources[01][02]

  4. Verified fact · material

    After the decision, Donald Trump demanded the Fed cut rates to 1% or less and criticised Warsh, whom he himself nominated to chair the central bank.

    Opens a public conflict between the White House and the Fed.

    Sources[06][07]

  5. Context

    The Ibovespa closed down 0.51% in line with international markets after the contractionary stance of the Fed.

    Shows the immediate transmission to Brazilian assets.

    Sources[02]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The dollar tends to strengthen and long Treasuries, which already topped 5% during the week, gain support.

Brazilian assets lose part of the rate differential just as the Copom cuts; political noise about the Fed may raise currency volatility.

Portfolio impact

03
Dólar (DXY)positive

Higher for longer rates lift the dollar carry.

Supports the dollar against emerging currencies.

What would change the view: If inflation eases, projections may be revised.

currency70% confidence
Treasuries de 10 anosnegative

The hike and the projected further tightening push yields up.

Prices fall and yields rise at the long end.

What would change the view: Reaction depends on September inflation data.

rates65% confidence
Ibovespanegative

Lower appetite for emerging risk and a narrower rate differential.

Short term pressure on multiples.

What would change the view: If foreign flows stay positive, the effect is limited.

macro55% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Next FOMC meeting in October and the September PCE reading
  • Ten and thirty year Treasury curve
  • New Trump statements on Warsh and Fed independence

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Whether the additional hike projected for 2026 materialises
  • The impact of the conflict between the government and the Fed on monetary policy credibility

Full sources

08
01
ExameFederal Reserve eleva juros nos EUA pela primeira vez em três anosindependent newsroom
02
Bloomberg LíneaFed eleva taxa de juros pela 1ª vez desde 2023 e projeções indicam mais uma alta este anoindependent newsroom
03
CNN BrasilFed sobe juros nos EUA pela 1ª vez em 3 anos em meio a pressão da guerraindependent newsroom
04
Gazeta do PovoFed eleva taxa de juros pela primeira vez desde 2023independent newsroom
05
Estado de MinasFed aumenta taxa de juros nos EUA pela primeira vez desde julho de 2023independent newsroom
06
CNBCTrump demands Fed cut rates to 1% after Warsh backs hikeindependent newsroom
07
CNN BrasilTrump critica Fed após Warsh apoiar alta dos jurosindependent newsroom
08
ExameFed projeta corte de juros e inflação na meta apenas em 2028independent newsroom
06