In brief
50%.
Projections show 3% inflation in 2026 and a return to target only at the end of 2027.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The European Central BankECBOrganizationCentral bank of the euro area, responsible for monetary policy in 20 countries and for the deposit rate that anchors the euro curve.Open in the Market Map ↗ raised its interest rates by 25 basis points on September 10, in a decision Christine LagardeECBOrganizationCentral bank of the euro area, responsible for monetary policy in 20 countries and for the deposit rate that anchors the euro curve.Open in the Market Map ↗ described as unanimous and easy, without setting a path for coming meetings, per CNN Brasil, Money Times and Poder360.
It is the decision that defines the event.
Verified fact
With the hike, the deposit rate goes to 2.50%, refinancing to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, effective September 16; projections are 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with core at 2.5%, 2.6% and 2.3%, per Poder360.
Rate levels, from a single group.
Sources[03]Verified fact
European stocks fell on September 10: Stoxx 600 -0.69% to 635.97, lowest since July 8; DAX -0.69%, CAC 40 -0.49% and FTSE 100 -0.57%, with tech -1.79%, under rising oil and expectations of further hikes in 2026, per Money Times.
Market reaction.
Sources[02]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
For the euro, a unanimous hike and inflation projected above 3% support the currency against the dollar; for equities, higher rates with expensive oil compress multiples, especially in tech.
For Brazil, a European hiking cycle and the chance of a Fed hike in September narrow the Copom's room to cut without pressuring the currency.
Portfolio impact
02Higher rates support the euro and compress equity multiples.
Positive for the currency, negative for stocks.
What would change the view: Depends on the oil path and the Fed decision.
Global tightening narrows the rate differential and room for Selic cuts.
Marginal pressure on the currency and long curve.
What would change the view: Changes if the Fed holds in September.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Fed decision in the week of 9/15 and the odds of a hike.
- Next ECB meeting in October and signals of further tightening.
- Euro curve and peripheral spreads.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The levels of the three rates after the hike appear only at Poder360.
- Reuters is not directly accessible.