In brief
25-point Selic cut next week.
Services revenue is growing almost only on price, keeping the BC cautious.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
Services volume was flat (0.0%) in July versus June and is up 2.4% over 12 months, the lowest since September 2024, per the IBGE monthly services survey released on September 10, according to Agência Brasil, InfoMoney and Poder360.
Activity data that defines the event.
Verified fact · material
Real industrial revenue fell 2% in July versus June and 0.5% year to date, with hours worked and employment up 0.2% and capacity use at 77.4%, per CNI, which blames high rates and household debt, according to Agência Brasil and InfoMoney.
Second activity data point.
Verified fact · material
B3's Copom options, based on the September 8 session, price about 95% odds of a 0.25-point Selic cut, from 14% to 13.75%, and about 3.5% for a hold, at the September 15-16 meeting, with 3.27 million open contracts, per B3 and InfoMoney.
Market pricing for the decision.
Verified fact
Nominal services revenue grew 7.1% over 12 months against 0.9% in volume, a sign of sector inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗, and the September consensus is another 25-basis-point cut, with the Selic projected at 13.25% in December, per InfoMoney.
Price reading behind activity.
Sources[02]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
25-point cut is a given; the debate is the pace after September, with the oil shock and the Fed in the way.
For the domestic Ibovespa, weak activity hurts revenues, but falling rates support retail and homebuilder multiples.
Portfolio impact
02Weak activity validates the priced cut and anchors the short curve.
Positive for short fixed-rate bonds.
What would change the view: The oil shock may limit the pace after September.
Falling rates support multiples, but weak demand weighs on revenues.
Ambiguous net effect.
What would change the view: Depends on the Copom statement's tone.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Copom decision and statement on 9/16.
- September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15 and oil pass-through.
- August industrial output and retail.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The 95% probability is as of 9/8 and was published 9/10, before Brent's rise to US$ 107.
- Poder360 is not directly accessible; confirmation relies on Agência Brasil and InfoMoney.