In brief

6 billion for exporters hit by US tariffsTrade tariffsThemeMeasures that change product entry costs and competitiveness in international trade.Open in the Market Map ↗, strategic industrial sectors and exporters to the Persian Gulf.

5% a year.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    BNDES opened on September 17 the enrolment protocol for the third stage of the Brasil Soberano planIndustrial policyThemeFederal programs supporting industry and exporters: the Brasil Soberano plan, Nova Indústria Brasil, incentives for critical minerals, fertilizers (Profert) and special regimes such as Redata, with BNDES credit and Treasury tax expenditure.Open in the Market Map ↗, which makes R$ 22.6 billion in financing available, of which R$ 13.5 billion from the National Treasury and R$ 9.1 billion from the bank itself.

    Third round of the programme created in response to the tariff shock.

    Sources[01][02]

  2. Verified fact · material

    Eligible are exporters and suppliers hit by US tariffsTrade tariffsThemeMeasures that change product entry costs and competitiveness in international trade.Open in the Market Map ↗, strategic industrial sectors such as textiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, automotive, critical mineralsIndustrial policyThemeFederal programs supporting industry and exporters: the Brasil Soberano plan, Nova Indústria Brasil, incentives for critical minerals, fertilizers (Profert) and special regimes such as Redata, with BNDES credit and Treasury tax expenditure.Open in the Market Map ↗ and machinery, and exporters to the Persian Gulf affected by the war, with at least 1% of revenue from the countries involved.

    Widens the programme reach beyond the tariff shock.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact · material

    Interest rates range from 4.3% to 17.5% a year depending on company size and use, for working capital, purchase of machinery and equipment and investment projects.

    Sets the implicit subsidy versus the 13.75% Selic.

    Sources[01][02]

  4. Context

    The programme was created in mid 2025 in response to US tariffsTrade tariffsThemeMeasures that change product entry costs and competitiveness in international trade.Open in the Market Map ↗ and already approved funds in two earlier rounds, according to the BNDES news agency.

    Programme history.

    Sources[03]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

Meat, coffee, wood and machinery exporters gain cheap funding to weather tariffsTrade tariffsThemeMeasures that change product entry costs and competitiveness in international trade.Open in the Market Map ↗ and the European embargo; for BNDES, the portfolio grows with Treasury backing.

5 billion enters the budget questioned by the IFI.

Portfolio impact

02
Exportadoras brasileiraspositive

Subsidised credit for working capital and investment.

Eases the financial cost for those affected.

What would change the view: Depends on enrolment and demand.

sector50% confidence
BNDESpositive

Portfolio grows with Treasury funding.

More disbursements in the fourth quarter.

What would change the view: Credit risk of the affected companies.

direct45% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Volume approved in the first weeks of enrolment
  • Brazil and US tariff meeting on September 30
  • BNDES third quarter results

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Effective corporate demand for the credit
  • Whether the programme will be renewed after the election

Full sources

03
01
Agência BrasilBrasil Soberano 3 começa a receber pedidos de empréstimos de empresasindependent newsroom
02
CNN BrasilBNDES abre protocolo para nova etapa do Brasil Soberano com R$ 22,6 bilhõesindependent newsroom
03
BNDESBNDES já aprovou R$ 5,3 bilhões para empresas com recursos do Brasil Soberanoofficial source
06