In brief
Brazil and the US set the first in-person meeting on the tariffsTrade tariffsThemeMeasures that change product entry costs and competitiveness in international trade.Open in the Market Map ↗ for September 30 and October 1 in Milwaukee, on the G20 sidelines.
The agenda includes the July 25% surcharge and the additional 12.5% tariff tied to forced labour.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
Minister Márcio Elias Rosa said on September 14 that Brazil and the United States should hold an in-person meeting on the tariffsTrade tariffsThemeMeasures that change product entry costs and competitiveness in international trade.Open in the Market Map ↗ on the sidelines of the G20 trade ministers meeting, between September 30 and October 1 in Milwaukee, with Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mauro Vieira present, per CNN Brasil and Agência Brasil.
The fact that defines the event.
Verified fact · material
On the table are the 25% surcharge imposed in July on steel, apparel, footwear, sugar, ethanol, pharmaceuticals, farm machinery and other manufactured goods and the additional 12.5% tariff on products tied to forced labour allegations, per Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil, which also cites the investigations on deforestation and digital payments.
Defines what is at stake for exporters.
Context
The previous virtual meeting took place on August 31, after the August 21 Lula-Trump call that reopened dialogue, and the teams had been exchanging documents to arrange the meeting, per Agência Brasil; CNN Brasil describes it as the first in-person meeting since talks resumed.
Timeline of the negotiation.
Verified fact
Rosa also said Brazil made up with other partners the export losses caused by US tariffsTrade tariffsThemeMeasures that change product entry costs and competitiveness in international trade.Open in the Market Map ↗, per a Poder360 headline not fully accessible; the figure was not confirmed by a second source.
Statement without a confirmed figure.
Sources[03]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Steel, footwear, sugar and ethanol exporters gain a date for revising the 25% surcharge, with no guarantee of an outcome.
The broad agenda, with forced labour, deforestation and digital payments, suggests staged talks rather than a single deal in Milwaukee.
Portfolio impact
01In-person talks open a path to revising the 25% surcharge on specific sectors.
Conditionally positive for affected exporters.
What would change the view: Depends on concessions in the forced labour and digital payments investigations.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Official confirmation of the agenda by the USTR.
- September trade balance and the US weight in exports.
- Outcome of the 9/30 and 10/1 meeting.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The minister speaks of an expected meeting; there is no formal US confirmation in the sources read.
- The statement on making up export losses comes only from Poder360, without an accessible figure.