In brief

US August inflation matched forecasts on the headline, but core beat projections and energy weighed again.

Markets now treat a Fed hike on September 16 as near-certain, at about 86% to 90% probability.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    US CPI rose 0.4% in August, from 0.1% in July, and 3.4% over 12 months, both in line with the Reuters forecast, while core rose 0.3% on the month, above the 0.2% projected, and 2.4% over 12 months, with energy up 2.1%, per InfoMoney, Bloomberg Línea and Money Times.

    Data point that defines the event.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    After the data, markets priced a Fed hike on September 16 as near-certain, at 86.5% probability in the CME Group tool cited by Money Times and a high chance of a second increase before year-end, per Bloomberg Línea; readings between 85% and 90% are time-of-day cuts of the same move.

    Consequence for monetary policy.

    Sources[03][02]

  3. Verified fact

    Wall Street closed September 11 higher, with the Dow +0.98% at 52,573, the S&P 500 +0.86% at 7,657 and the Nasdaq +0.96% at 26,333, on oil relief and falling long Treasuries, but lost 1.5%, 0.7% and 0.6% on the week, per Money Times.

    Index reaction.

    Sources[03]

  4. Verified fact

    Real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% in a year on high inflation and modest wage gains, and diesel is at a record in the US, per Bloomberg Línea; Poder360 attributes the index rise to gasoline prices.

    Consumer context.

    Sources[02][04]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

For the dollar and Treasuries, above-forecast core closes the door on any pause reading and keeps the 10-year near 5%; for Brazil, a hiking Fed in Copom week narrows the differential and pressures the real, arguing against signalling larger cuts.

For equities, Friday's gain was oil relief, not rate relief.

Portfolio impact

02
Treasuries e dólarnegative

Above-forecast core cements the Fed hike and supports long rates.

Negative for bonds; strong dollar.

What would change the view: Changes if the Fed signals a one-off hike.

rates60% confidence
Real e curva brasileiranegative

A Fed hike in Copom week narrows the rate differential.

Moderate pressure on the real.

What would change the view: Offset if the Copom keeps a cautious signal.

currency45% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Fed decision on 9/16 and the dot plot.
  • 10-year Treasury and the dollar against the real in Copom week.
  • US industrial production and retail sales data.

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The hike probability varies between 85% and 90% by source and time; 86.5% is the CME reading cited by Money Times.
  • Poder360 was not directly accessible; the data appears at InfoMoney, Bloomberg Línea and Money Times.

Full sources

04
01
InfoMoneyInflação ao consumidor (CPI) dos EUA sobe 0,4% em agostoindependent newsroom
02
Bloomberg LíneaInflação nos EUA supera as previsões e reforça chance de alta de juros pelo Fedindependent newsroom
03
Money TimesWall Street fecha em alta com alívio do petróleo, mas cai na semanaindependent newsroom
04
Poder360Inflação nos EUA sobe 0,4% em agosto com alta do preço da gasolinaindependent newsroom
06