In brief
The August payroll showed 162,000 jobs added in the United States, nearly triple the forecast of about 55,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1% and upward revisions for June and July, per Bloomberg Línea, Poder360 and Money Times.
The S&P 500 fell 0.38% and the Dow Jones 0.51% on September 4 as investors raised bets on a Fed hike; in Brazil the dollar rose about 0.5% and the Ibovespa ended near flat, per InfoMoney, CNN Brasil, Money Times and Exame.
Trump reacted on Truth Social saying he would stop doing business with countries the US runs deficits with if the Fed does not cut rates, which he said should be 1% or 0.5%, per InfoMoney and Bloomberg Línea.
What we know
05Verified fact · material
Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would stop doing business with countries the US runs trade deficits with if the Fed does not cut rates, which he said should be 1% or 0.5%.
It ties trade policy to pressure on the Fed, with potential effects on deficit partners.
Verified fact
Per CNN Brasil, Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said it is time to act on rates with inflation above 3%.
It records the Fed's internal read on the same day.
Sources[11]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
For the currency and long rates in Brazil, the strong payroll narrows the expected rate differential and supports the dollar, pressuring NTN-Bs and foreign flows on B3.
For Brazilian exporters, Trump's threat to deficit countries does not hit Brazil directly, which runs a deficit with the US, but raises global trade uncertainty.
Portfolio impact
01Higher-for-longer US rates strengthen the dollar and narrow the differential that attracts flows to Brazil.
Negative for the real in the short term.
What would change the view: The read changes if August US inflation comes in below expectations or if the Fed signals a pause at the September meeting.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- The Fed meeting on September 16 and 17 and rate-hike pricing on CME FedWatch.
- US consumer inflation for August, due before the meeting.
- Any executive action by Trump against deficit partners.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The market forecast cited varies between 53,000 and 55,000 by source; the rate-hike probability implied by FedWatch was cited only by unregistered sources.