In brief

6 billion hole in sales to the US, concentrated in surcharged products.

August shows the distortion: value rises with commodity prices, but shipped volume drops 17%.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    Brazil's exports to the United States totalled US$ 24.1 billion from January to August 2026, down 9.7% and US$ 2.6 billion less than in the same period of 2025, the lowest for the interval since 2023, per an Amcham Brasil survey using Comexstat data reported by InfoMoney, Exame and Correio Braziliense.

    It is the aggregate figure measuring the tariff cost.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    Among products surcharged at 25% to 37.5%, the largest drops were softwood (−55.3%), unmanufactured tobacco (−39.9%), beef tallow (−39.4%) and worked granite (−37.4%), per InfoMoney and Exame.

    Identifies where the tariff bit.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact

    In August alone, export value to the US rose 12.1% but volume fell 17.3%; by sector, agriculture fell 26.7%, extractive industry 28.9% and manufacturing 4.9%, the first drop since 2020, per InfoMoney.

    Separates price from volume effects.

    Sources[01]

  4. Verified fact

    Estadão also covered the Amcham survey on August exports, per the collection.

    Records additional coverage.

    Sources[04]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The figure reinforces the tariff's asymmetry: commodities redirect to Asia, but manufactured goods and niche agriculture lose market without substitutes.

For bilateral talks, it is the argument Brazil brings to the table; for the trade balance, the surplus remains China-supported.

Portfolio impact

02
Exportadoras sobretaxadasnegative

Lost US market in wood, tobacco, tallow and stone without immediate substitutes.

Negative for surcharged sectors.

What would change the view: Reverses with a bilateral deal or new exemptions.

sector60% confidence
Negociação Brasil-EUAuncertain

The data raises pressure for a deal but does not guarantee progress at the table.

Direction undefined.

What would change the view: Depends on September's ministerial round.

macro50% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • The Brazil-US ministerial round expected in late September.
  • September's trade balance (MDIC).
  • Trump's response to new exemption lists.

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The survey is Amcham's on public data, not an official MDIC release.

Full sources

04
01
InfoMoneyExportações do Brasil para os EUA até agosto são as menores desde 2023independent newsroom
02
ExameExportações aos EUA caem 9,7% no ano; veja os produtos mais afetados pelo tarifaçoindependent newsroom
03
Correio BrazilienseExportações do Brasil aos EUA caem 9,7% e atingem menor nível desde 2023independent newsroom
04
Estadão EconomiaAmcham: exportações brasileiras aos EUA em agosto de 2026independent newsroom
06