IFI projects a primary deficit of R$ 86.1 billion in 2027 against the R$ 18.6 billion surplus forecast by the government

1. 01

   Verified fact · material

   The IFI projects a primary deficit of R$ 86.1 billion for 2027 in the 116th Fiscal Monitoring Report, released on September 17, against an R$ 18.6 billion surplus in the budget bill, a gap of R$ 104.8 billion.

   Widest gap between the IFI and the government since the fiscal framework was created.

   Sources[01][02]
2. 02

   Verified fact · material

   To meet the target, the IFI calculates a minimum freeze of R$ 35.7 billion in 2027; after legal exclusions, the result would be a surplus of only R$ 900 million.

   Anticipates discretionary spending freezes in the first year of the next government.

   Sources[01][02]
3. 03

   Verified fact · material

   The IFI projects 1.8% GDP growth and 4.0% IPCA in 2027, against 2.5% and 3.6% from the government, and payroll growth of 7.3% versus 10.1% in the bill.

   Government revenue assumptions sit above consensus.

   Sources[01][02]
4. 04

   Context

   Projected gross debt is 82.5% of GDP, possibly reaching 86.4% at the end of 2027, according to the report.

   The debt path remains upward.

   Sources[01]
5. 05

   Context

   The 2027 budget bill was presented by the Finance Ministry with a forecast primary surplus of R$ 18.6 billion.

   Official reference disputed by the IFI.

   Sources[03]

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Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.