In brief
The share of financial institutions naming fiscal risk as the biggest threat to stability rose from 27% in May to 34% in August, per the Central Bank's Financial Stability Survey released on September 3 and covered by CNN Brasil and Poder360.
The survey heard 117 institutions between July 2 and 28, before the 2027 budget was sent; default risk ranks second, per Poder360.
The result lands in the week gross debt reached 82.5% of GDP and the government presented a budget with a narrow surplus, two facts NEXO already published.
What we know
04Verified fact
Per Poder360, default risk is the second most cited by institutions.
It completes the risk ranking.
Sources[02]Verified fact
The survey was answered before the 2027 budget was sent and before gross debt of 82.5% of GDP was released.
It contextualizes the reference date against recent fiscal facts.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
For the yield curveYield CurveMacroBrazil's market interest rates across maturities, reflected in government bonds, Tesouro Direto and DI futures.Open in the Market Map ↗, a third of banks with fiscal as their top fear sustains the premium on long NTN-Bs even with falling inflation.
For banks, fiscal risk and defaults at the top of the list suggest higher provisions and more selective credit in the second half.
Portfolio impact
01Higher perceived fiscal risk raises the premium demanded on long bonds and the cost of credit.
Negative and gradual for the curve.
What would change the view: The read changes if the 2027 budget passes with a credible target or if gross debt stabilizes.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- The Central Bank's full Financial Stability Report and the Comef minutes.
- Progress of the 2027 budget and August's primary result.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Coverage does not give the share of other risks or the comparison with August 2025.