In brief
The September Prisma Fiscal cut the projected 2026 primary deficit by R$ 6.9 billion to R$ 52.3 billion, and 2027 to R$ 45.4 billion.
Projected gross debt rose to 83.2% of GDP in 2026 and 87% in 2027 on interest costs.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The Prisma Fiscal median for the 2026 Central Government primary deficit fell to R$ 52.271 billion in September, from R$ 59.145 billion in August, and the 2027 figure to R$ 45.350 billion, from R$ 55.000 billion, per the Finance Ministry and Reuters via Money Times.
The number that defines the event.
Verified fact · material
Projected gross debt rose to 83.20% of GDP in 2026, from 83.00% in August, and to 87.00% in 2027, from 86.77%, with expected net revenue at R$ 2.581 trillion in 2026 and R$ 2.750 trillion in 2027, per Reuters via Money Times and the Finance Ministry.
Debt rises despite the better primary balance.
Verified fact
Projected spending is R$ 2.625 trillion in 2026 and R$ 2.792 trillion in 2027, and the 14% Selic is cited as the factor lifting interest expense and debt, per Money Times.
Spending detail, one source.
Sources[02]Context
Prisma Fiscal compiles monthly the projections of financial institutions and consultancies collected by the Economic Policy Secretariat of the Finance Ministry.
What the survey is.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The primary revision lowers the risk of missing the 2026 target, but debt at 87% in 2027 keeps the fiscal premium at the long end of the curve.
A 0.25 point Selic cut this week changes the interest bill little; what moves debt is the pace of cuts in 2027.
Portfolio impact
01A better primary balance cuts target risk, but higher debt sustains the long-end premium.
Mixed: short-term relief, long-term premium.
What would change the view: Depends on the pace of Selic cuts and post-election revenue.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- September bimonthly revenue and spending report.
- Treasury August primary result.
- October Prisma after the election.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Projected spending and the Selic attribution come only from Money Times.
- Prisma is a market median, not an official government projection.