In brief
4%, driven by financial components and charges.
9 points higher.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The third 2026 InfoTarifas edition projects an average tariff effect of 9.4% for the year, above the projected IGP-M of 4.4% and IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ of 5.0%.
An average increase nearly double expected official inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Verified fact
According to CNN Brasil, the previous edition projected 8.6% and 16% of distributors face increases above 15%, with 51 tariff processes planned this year.
Context on the dispersion of increases across distributors.
Sources[02]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
For listed distributors, an above-inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ increase preserves regulated revenue but raises delinquency and political risk in an election year.
For inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗, residential power above 9% cuts against the disinflation narrative and weighs on year-end IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ projections.
Portfolio impact
02Above-inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ increases support regulated revenue but raise delinquency and political pressure.
The effect per company depends on each concession's review.
What would change the view: Tariff review calendar maintained without intervention.
Residential power up 9.4% in the year pressures administered IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ in the second half.
The UBP relief is already built into the projection.
What would change the view: Green or yellow tariff flag through December.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Increases for distributors still under tariff review in the fourth quarter
- Tariff flags and the effect on September and October IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗
- Congressional debate on sector charges and the Social Fund
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The component breakdown and dispersion across distributors come from CNN's coverage of the bulletin, whose PDF is not reproduced on Aneel's page.