In brief
70% in September, above expectations.
47%.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15 rose 0.70% in September, after a 0.40% drop in August, above the median market forecast.
Measures current inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Verified fact
According to Agência Brasil, electricity rose 7.42% with the end of the Itaipu bonus and, without it, the index would have been 0.41%.
Identifies the main driver.
Sources[02]Verified fact
According to Agência Brasil, airfares rose 9.82% and food rose 0.40%.
Details other groups.
Sources[02]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The surprise concentrated in electricity tends to be partly reversed by October green tariff flag, but keeps the short end of the curve under pressure until the full IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ on October 9 and the next Copom meeting.
Portfolio impact
01Above-expected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ reduces room for Selic cuts.
Rise concentrated in a one-off effect.
What would change the view: Full IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ confirming the pressure.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ on October 9
- Effect of the October green tariff flag
- Focus survey expectations
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The exact median market forecast varies across surveys.