Focus survey raises the 2026 IPCA forecast from 4.92% to 4.99%, close to 5%

1. 01

   Verified fact · material

   The September 28 Focus survey raised the median 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ from 4.92% to 4.99%.

   Measures inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ expectations.

   Sources[01][02][03]
2. 02

   Verified fact · material

   The forecast remains above the 4.5% inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ target ceiling.

   Shows the expected miss.

   Sources[01][02]
3. 03

   Verified fact

   According to Correio Braziliense, the 2027 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast stood at 4.31% and the 2026 GDP forecast at 1.86%.

   Completes the picture.

   Sources[02]
4. 04

   Verified fact

   The revision follows the September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15 rising 0.70%, above expectations.

   Gives context on the revision.

   Sources[01]

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Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.