In brief
625 billion.
5 billion.
87 billion left unused.
What we know
04Context
Requests from states and municipalities continue to be reviewed by the Treasury within the limit and conditions verification process, with priority for entities with better payment capacity.
Effective access depends on the payment capacity rating of each entity.
Sources[02]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Public and multilateral banks gain demand for guaranteed operations in 2026.
5 million in guaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗ in August; more guaranteed operations increase that tail risk in the coming years.
Portfolio impact
02More subnational credit operations with a federal guarantee.
Loan books to public entities grow.
What would change the view: Depends on the Treasury approving the requests.
More guaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗ granted raise future Treasury exposure.
Increases the contingent liabilities of the federal government.
What would change the view: Risk materialises only if the entity stops paying.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Queue of limit verification requests at the Treasury after the expansion
- GuaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗ honoured by the federal government in the monthly bulletins
- Distribution of the new room among states rated A and B
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- How much of the new limit will be contracted in 2026
- Whether there will be another expansion in 2027 using the same mechanism