In brief
Beef exports fell 27.1% in volume in August from August 2025, per Agência Brasil citing MDIC data, after China's import quota hit 90% use on August 10 and excess volumes became subject to a 55% tariff.
Shipments to China plunged 89.8% to 16 thousand tonnes, the worst month since December 2021, per CNN Brasil; O Globo measures the drop at 19.7% in value, a sign that average prices rose as volume fell.
The retreat comes a week after the European Union suspended beef imports from Brazil, adding up to two closed or restricted markets for JBS, Marfrig and Minerva in the same quarter.
What we know
04Verified fact
Per CNN Brasil, shipments to China fell 89.8%, from 158 thousand to 16 thousand tonnes, the worst result since December 2021.
It sizes China's weight in the drop.
Sources[03]Verified fact
Per O Globo, the drop in value was 19.7%, smaller than the volume drop, indicating a higher average price.
It records the gap between volume and value.
Sources[02]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
For JBS, Marfrig and Minerva, August combines an exhausted China quota and, since September 3, a European embargo; redirecting to the US, Middle East and Southeast Asia decides second-half margins.
For domestic cattle prices, lower exports tend to raise domestic supply in the short term.
Portfolio impact
01An exhausted quota and a 55% tariff cut volume to the largest buyer, reducing export revenue until the quota renews.
Negative in the short term; magnitude depends on redirection.
What would change the view: The read changes if meatpackers redirect volume to other destinations at equivalent prices or if China expands the quota.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Opening of a new quota or the annual renewal of China's quota in January.
- September data from Secex and Abiec to see whether volume recovers in other destinations.
- Talks with the EU on the sanitary embargo in force.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The volume (27.1%) and value (19.7%) percentages come from different sources on the same MDIC base; exact reconciliation depends on the official table.