Trade balance posts US$ 7.4 billion surplus in August

In brief

Secex/MDIC released on September 4 a US$ 7.394 billion trade surplus for August, the third largest for the month, per Agência Brasil, g1, Correio Braziliense and InfoMoney.

Exports to the United States grew 12.1% in value to US$ 3.19 billion, with prices 8.6% higher and volume 3.1% lower, per Agência Brasil; from January to August they are still down 9.7% in value.

At the other end, sales to China fell 10.9% and sales to the European Union rose 46.4%, per CNN Brasil, shifting export revenue destinations amid US tariffs and the exhaustion of China's beef quota.

What we know

Verified fact · material
The trade balance posted a US$ 7.394 billion surplus in August 2026, per Secex/MDIC.
It is the month's central figure and the third largest August surplus.
Sources[01][02][03][05][08]
Verified fact · material
Exports to the United States rose 12.1% from August 2025 to US$ 3.19 billion.
It shows the value exported to the US growing despite tariffs.
Sources[05][08][09][11]
Verified fact
Exports to China fell 10.9% in August from August 2025 to US$ 8.34 billion, and sales to the European Union grew 46.4% to US$ 5.82 billion.
It defines the shift in export revenue destinations.
Sources[06][07][05]
Verified fact · material
From January to August, exports to the US are down 9.7% in value to US$ 24.1 billion despite the August rise.
It shows the tariff still weighs on the year-to-date figure.
Sources[10][11]
Verified fact
Per Agência Brasil, the rise to the US came from prices 8.6% higher with volume 3.1% lower; CNN Brasil reported the surplus as US$ 7.3 billion, a rounding of the same figure.
It qualifies the rise as a price effect and records the rounding difference.
Sources[11][04]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

For commodity exporters, the strong balance and the weaker currency on the day help revenue in reais, but the 10.9% drop in sales to China weighs on beef and soybeans.

For the currency, a US$ 7.4 billion surplus supports trade flows in a month when financial flows were negative with foreigners leaving the stock market.

Portfolio impact

Exportadores de commodities na B3mixed

The rise in value to the US supports revenue, but lower volume and China's retreat cut shipped quantities.

Mixed: price offsets volume for now.

What would change the view: The read changes if China's quota is expanded or the US tariff is revised in bilateral talks.

sector50% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

Secex weekly data for September to see whether the rise to the US holds with the tariff in force.
Renewal or expansion of China's beef quota, which cut exports in August.
The government's response to US tariffs in the ongoing negotiation.

Limits of the reporting