In brief
The September 14 Focus put the 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ median at 4.90%, the first below 5% this year, after the August deflation.
The market expects Selic at 13.75% at the September 16 Copom decision and cut the 2026 GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast to 1.89%.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The median forecast for 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ fell to 4.90% in the September 14 Focus, from 5.00% the previous week, the first reading below 5% this year, and the 2027 forecast rose to 4.30%, per CNN Brasil and Agência Brasil.
The number that defines the event.
Verified fact · material
The 2026 GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ median fell to 1.89%, from 1.93% the previous week, and 2027 to 1.45%, per CNN Brasil and Agência Brasil; the dollar projected for end-2026 stayed at R$ 5.20 for the 13th straight week, per Agência Brasil.
Weaker activity accompanies disinflation.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The short curve tends to keep the 0.25 point cut as the base case, with Focus validating the August disinflation.
2026 GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ below 1.9% reinforces the weak activity reading that favours cuts, but oil and the Fed limit the fall in long rates.
Portfolio impact
01Expected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ below 5% supports the cut and trims the premium at the short end.
Positive for short fixed-rate bonds.
What would change the view: Reverses if the Copom signals a pause on oil or the currency.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- The Copom decision and statement on 9/16.
- The next Focus on 9/21 and the reaction to oil above US$ 105.
- September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- CNN Brasil cites the next decision on September 18; Agência Brasil and the BC calendar point to September 15 and 16.
- The end-2027 Selic projection differs between sources (12% at CNN; Agência Brasil does not detail it).