In brief
Lula signed without vetoes the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals.
The law creates a R$ 5 billion guarantee fund, R$ 5 billion in tax credits between 2030 and 2034 and a national council.
The government postponed the debate on an export tax.
What we know
05Verified fact · material
The law authorises the federal government to create the Mineral Activity Guarantee Fund, with R$ 5 billion and public participation of up to R$ 2 billion, and creates the processing programme with tax credits of R$ 1 billion a year between 2030 and 2034, capped at 20% of project spending.
Sets the size of the public incentive for domestic processing.
Verified fact · material
Companies in research, mining, processing and transformation of critical minerals must allocate, for six years, 0.2% of gross operating revenue to the guarantee fund and 0.3% to research, development and innovation projects.
Creates a recurring cost of 0.5% of revenue for the sector.
Context
The national secretary for Geology and Mining said the government will only discuss an export tax on critical minerals after production advances.
Removes the short term risk of export taxation.
Sources[07]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
5% of revenue contribution.
The absence of an export tax on the horizon preserves the appeal of export oriented projects.
Portfolio impact
02Public guarantees and tax credits reduce the cost of capital for processing projects.
Improves the viability of downstream projects.
What would change the view: Depends on regulation and the list of minerals.
The 0.5% of revenue contribution hits whoever mines listed minerals; copper and nickel may be included.
Small cost relative to total revenue.
What would change the view: Only if operations are classified as critical.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Regulation of the guarantee fund and the council in the coming weeks
- First meeting of the National Council for the Industrialisation of Critical Minerals
- Reaction of foreign investors in rare earth projects
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The final list of minerals deemed critical and strategic
- When the 2030 tax credits will be regulated