In brief
5 million tonnes, with more oil and meal heading abroad.
46 million tonnes.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
Abiove cut its projection for Brazil's 2026 soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ exports from 115.4 million to 115 million tonnes, up 6.3% on 2025.
Marginal adjustment in a year of still-record exports.
Verified fact · material
SoybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ crushing was raised to 63.5 million tonnes, a record about 8.5% above the 58.5 million of 2025.
More beans stay home to become oil, meal and biodiesel.
Verified fact
According to InfoMoney, the revision comes as China increases US soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ purchases ahead of Trump's visit to the country.
Context on trade competition with the United States.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The cut to bean exports is small and the highlight is record crushing, which supports industry margins and biodiesel supply.
For exporters, swapping beans for derivatives raises value added, but China's pace of US purchases remains a risk for port premiums.
Portfolio impact
02Record crushing supports domestic demand, but the export cut and US competition pressure premiums.
Small net effect with the 180 million tonne crop unchanged.
What would change the view: Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans holding in the fourth quarter.
Rising bean, oil and meal exports keep agribusiness dollar inflows.
Record volume partly offsets lower prices.
What would change the view: Chicago prices not falling beyond what is already projected.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Chinese purchases of US soybeans after the Trump-Xi summit
- Export premiums at Brazilian ports in the fourth quarter
- Biodiesel blend and soy oil demand in 2027
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Ending stock figures appear only in CNN Brasil.