In brief
The Treasury paid R$ 79.95 million in state and municipal guaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗ in August and R$ 3.13 billion in the year.
Since 2016 R$ 89.66 billion has been honoured and only R$ 6.06 billion recovered, because of fiscal recovery regimes.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
Since 2016 the Union has honoured R$ 89.66 billion in guaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗ and recovered R$ 6.06 billion through counter-guarantee execution, per the Finance Ministry and Agência Brasil.
Accumulated stock and recovery.
Verified fact · material
The low recovery is explained by states joining the Fiscal Recovery Regime, which suspends counter-guarantee execution: R$ 79.85 billion of the total honoured since 2016 involves those states, R$ 1.90 billion is linked to ICMS loss compensation and R$ 522.39 million is blocked by court rulings, per the Finance Ministry and Agência Brasil.
Explains the fiscal cost of the regime.
Context
The sources do not detail which states or municipalities had guaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗ triggered in August; the monthly Treasury report gives the breakdown by entity.
Limit of the disclosure.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The monthly flow is small, but the R$ 89.66 billion stock with 7% recovery shows guaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗ have become a permanent transfer from the Union to states in recovery.
For gross debt, the cost adds to 14% rates and supports the Prisma projection of 83.2% of GDP in 2026.
Portfolio impact
01GuaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗ honoured without recovery become permanent Union spending.
Marginally negative for the fiscal path.
What would change the view: Changes if recovery regimes are renegotiated with counter-guaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- September guaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗ report and the state breakdown.
- Renegotiation of fiscal recovery regimes after the election.
- Court rulings on counter-guaranteesCredit guaranteesThemeStructures that distribute default risk and condition financing transactions.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The August entities were not named in the sources read.
- CNN carries only the monthly amount; the totals come from the Finance Ministry and Agência Brasil.