In brief
3 points, the worst for the month since 2015, and investment intention at the lowest since 2020.
Capacity utilization fell to 69%.
What we know
04Verified fact
According to CNN Brasil, the employment index stood at 48.2 points, capacity utilization fell to 69%, inventories slipped to 49.5 points and demand expectations stood at 51.2 points; the survey polled 1,403 companies between September 1 and 11.
Completes the picture of an industrial slowdown.
Sources[01]Verified fact
According to CNN Brasil, September expectations also fell for input purchases (50.4 points), exports (48.9) and headcount (49.2); the sample comprised 587 small, 487 medium and 329 large companies.
Shows the weakness reaches expectations, not only realized output.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The August industrial contraction and investment intention at a post-pandemic low reinforce the slowdown thesis that underpins Selic cuts, and point to a weak August industrial production print.
For capital goods (WEG, Randon) and steel, the data signal weaker domestic demand in the second half.
Portfolio impact
02Weaker industrial activity reinforces expectations of Selic cuts.
Marginal effect on the short end.
What would change the view: August industrial production confirming the drop.
Investment intention at a post-2020 low signals weak domestic demand for machinery and steel.
Exports and infrastructure may partly offset.
What would change the view: Decline repeating in the October survey.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- IBGE August industrial production in October
- September industrial confidence index
- Copom minutes and the central bank reading on activity
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Coverage does not give the breakdown by company size or sector.
- The CNI index is a diffusion index and does not measure output volume.