In brief
9% in the September Macrofiscal Bulletin.
The revision is concentrated in services and industry and cites the record weight of household debt.
What we know
05Verified fact · material
The Macrofiscal Bulletin released on September 22 cut the 2026 GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.0% and 2027 from 2.5% to 2.3%.
The government converges toward the market median after months of a higher forecast.
Verified fact · material
The 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast fell from 5.1% to 4.9% and 2027 rose from 3.6% to 3.8%.
InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ still above the target ceiling in 2026.
Verified fact · material
The SPE attributes the revision to the weaker carry-over from the first half and the lagged transmission of monetary policy, and notes that the share of household income committed to debt service hit the highest level of the series in the second quarter.
Explains why income growth is not turning into consumption.
Verified fact
According to Poder360, with R$ 62.78 billion in deductions (court-ordered payments, health, defense and social security), the estimated primary result becomes a R$ 10.77 billion surplus for the 2026 target, and the ministry sees a persistent oil shock; according to O Globo and InfoMoney, the ministry attributes household strain to the cost of credit, not the size of debt.
Completes the fiscal picture and the official reading on credit.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
8% reinforces the slowdown thesis behind the Selic cuts and weighs on retail and discretionary consumption in the second half.
8% and a surplus obtained through deductions keep fiscal risk in the long end.
Portfolio impact
02Services at 1.8% and income tied up in debt limit consumption in the second half.
Gradual effect, already partly priced.
What would change the view: August retail data confirming the weakness.
A lower official forecast reinforces the slowdown reading behind Selic cuts.
Short end supported by weaker activity.
What would change the view: Copom keeping the quarter-point pace.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Bimonthly revenue and expenditure report for the fourth two-month period
- July IBC-Br and August industrial production
- Next Macrofiscal Bulletin, in November
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The primary result and deduction figures appear only in Poder360, inaccessible to the coordinator.
- Coverage does not include the bulletin projections for INPC, IGP-DI and the Selic.