In brief

Lula told CNN in New York that the Reciprocity Law will only be applied if there is no deal with the US.

He likened Trump to an emperor but denied seeking a tariff war.

What we know

05

  1. Verified fact · material

    In a CNN interview on September 21, Lula said Brazil will not apply the Reciprocity Law while negotiating with the US and will only do so if there is no deal on tariffsTrade tariffsThemeMeasures that change product entry costs and competitiveness in international trade.Open in the Market Map ↗.

    Makes retaliation conditional on failed talks rather than on a deadline.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    Lula described Trump's governing style as that of an emperor applying the law of the strongest and said he was elected to govern the US, not other countries.

    Raises the tone on the eve of a possible bilateral meeting.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  3. Verified fact · material

    Lula said the tariff hike was based on lies, cited Brazil's trade deficit with the US and said he does not want a tariff war with any country.

    Keeps negotiation as the declared priority.

    Sources[01][03]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Correio Braziliense, US surcharges reach 37.5% on Brazilian exports and a possible Lula-Trump meeting was expected on September 22 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

    Sets the scene in which the remarks were made.

    Sources[03]

  5. Verified fact

    According to Money Times, citing Reuters, Lula said he fears US interference in the Brazilian elections, mentioned Secretary of State Marco Rubio and said personal contact with Trump reopened trade talks.

    Ties the trade agenda to the electoral calendar.

    Sources[02]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

While reciprocity stays conditional on failed talks, the market does not price retaliation, and the exchange rate reacts more to the outcome of the Trump meeting than to the tone of the interview.

Tariffed exporters remain exposed to the negotiation calendar, which Lula now ties to the post-election period.

Portfolio impact

02
Câmbio (BRL)uncertain

Retaliation conditional on failed talks keeps reciprocity risk out of prices.

Reaction depends on the meeting outcome, not the interview.

What would change the view: The Trump meeting not producing a rupture.

macro50% confidence
Exportadores tarifados (JBS, Minerva, café, aço)mixed

A deal would remove surcharges; failure would open the way to reciprocity and new frictions.

Exposure remains tied to the political calendar.

What would change the view: Progress of talks after the General Assembly.

sector40% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Whether the Lula-Trump meeting at the UN happens on September 22 and what comes out of it
  • List of products under study for reciprocity
  • Lula speech opening the General Assembly

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Coverage does not say which US products are under study for the reciprocity list.
  • The meeting with Trump is described as possible, without official confirmation.

Full sources

03
01
CNN BrasilÀ CNN, Lula volta a chamar Trump de imperador e defende multilateralismoindependent newsroom
02
Money TimesLula diz que Brasil só aplicará reciprocidade se negociações com os EUA fracassaremindependent newsroom
03
Correio BrazilienseEm Nova York, Lula critica Trump um dia antes de possível encontro na ONUindependent newsroom
06