In brief

The CNI ICEI fell to 44.9 points in September and totalled 21 months of pessimism, the longest stretch since 2015.

The deterioration came from current conditions, with the assessment of the Brazilian economyBrazilEconomyBrazilian economy and its monetary, fiscal, productive and regulatory environment.Open in the Market Map ↗ at the lowest level of the recent series.

What we know

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  1. Verified fact · material

    The CNI ICEI fell 1.4 point in September to 44.9 points, from 46.3 in August, completing 21 straight months below 50 points, the longest pessimism stretch since 2015 and 2016, per Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil.

    The number that defines the event.

    Sources[01][02]

  2. Verified fact · material

    The current conditions index fell 2.5 points to 40.2, with the assessment of the Brazilian economyBrazilEconomyBrazilian economy and its monetary, fiscal, productive and regulatory environment.Open in the Market Map ↗ at 33 points (-3.6) and of companies at 43.8 (-1.9), and the expectations index slipped 0.9 point to 47.2, per Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil.

    Shows the deterioration is in the present, not in expectations.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact

    The survey polled 1,186 companies, 475 small, 441 medium and 270 large, between September 1 and 8, per Agência Brasil and CNN Brasil.

    Method and sample.

    Sources[01][02]

  4. Context

    Companies expectations about their own business remain at 51.3 points, above the 50 line, while expectations about the economy stand at 39.1, per Agência Brasil.

    Split between the company and the economy.

    Sources[01]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The data feeds the weak-activity thesis behind the 0.25 point Selic cut and weighs on capital goods and steel stocks.

Pessimism concentrated in the assessment of the economy rather than the company suggests rates and political uncertainty weigh more than immediate demand.

Portfolio impact

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Bens de capital, siderurgia e DI curtonegative

Low confidence points to lower investment and output, with a mixed effect: negative for cyclicals, positive for rate cuts.

Negative for industrial activity in the short term.

What would change the view: Changes if the Copom speeds up cuts or external demand compensates.

macro50% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • The CNI industrial survey and IBGE August industrial output.
  • The Copom statement on 9/16 about activity.
  • The October ICEI, the first after the first round.

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The historical comparison uses the series started in the 2010s; 2015-2016 is the benchmark cited by CNI.
  • Collection from 9/1 to 9/8 does not capture the August deflation released on 9/10.

Full sources

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Agência BrasilConfiança da indústria recua e mantém 21 meses de pessimismoindependent newsroom
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CNN BrasilConfiança da indústria está em baixa há 21 meses, aponta CNIindependent newsroom
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