In brief
The Bank of America CEO projected flat trading and investment banking fees below expectations in the third quarter.
The bank stock had its biggest drop since April 2025 and dragged Goldman, Citi and JPMorgan.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
Brian Moynihan said at a Barclays conference on September 14 that Bank of America sales and trading revenue in the third quarter will be relatively flat versus the third quarter of 2025, ending a 17-quarter growth streak, per Bloomberg Línea and NeoFeed.
The guidance that defines the event.
Verified fact · material
Investment banking fees should come in between US$ 1.6 billion and US$ 1.8 billion in the quarter, below the roughly US$ 2 billion Wall Street expected and booked a year earlier, a drop of at least 10%, per Bloomberg Línea and NeoFeed.
The fee decline contradicts the recovery expectation.
Verified fact · material
Bank of America shares fell in the September 14 session after the remarks: 3.3% in the early afternoon, per Bloomberg Línea, and more than 5% near the close, the biggest drop since April 2025, per NeoFeed, different time cuts of the same day.
Price reaction with declared time cut.
Verified fact
Goldman Sachs fell more than 4%, Citigroup 3.5% and JPMorgan 2% in the same session, and Moynihan said it will still be one of the bank best third quarters, per NeoFeed; Bloomberg Línea records that peers also fell, without figures.
Sector contagion with one source for the figures.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Brazilian banks with ADRs and IVVB11 suffer short-term contagion, but the guidance speaks to trading and fees, not credit.
Lower Wall Street fees signal fewer IPOs and issuances, weighing on the expected reopening of the window for Brazilian companies.
Portfolio impact
01Weak trading and fee guidance lowers expected financial sector earnings in the S&P 500.
Negative for US banks in the short term.
What would change the view: Eases if JPMorgan and Goldman give better guidance in the same week.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Official close of BofA shares and the KBW bank index.
- Guidance from JPMorgan, Goldman and Citi at the same conference.
- 3Q26 results of the big banks from mid-October.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The 3.3% and the more than 5% drops are different time cuts; no source gives the official close.
- The US$ 2 billion comparison base is the Wall Street expectation at Bloomberg and the 3Q25 fee at NeoFeed.