In brief
92%.
20.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ projection rose from 4.90% to 4.92%, and 2027 stayed at 4.30%.
Expected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ stays above the 4.50% target ceiling.
Verified fact · material
The 2026 GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ projection slipped from 1.89% to 1.88% and 2027 from 1.45% to 1.43%; the end-2026 exchange rate stayed at R$ 5.20.
Weaker activity underpins the bet on lower rates.
Verified fact
According to Bloomberg Línea, the revision came a week after the Copom cut the Selic by 0.25 point to 13.75%; according to Exame, the 2026 IGP-M rose from 4.54% to 4.73%.
Gives context on rates and wholesale inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
50% at year-end, the market prices one more quarter-point cut in the two remaining meetings, which supports the short end of the curve.
InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ above the ceiling limits room to speed up the pace and keeps the exchange rate as the risk variable.
Portfolio impact
02A lower 2026 Selic median reinforces pricing of one more cut.
Short rates tend to accommodate the new median.
What would change the view: Copom minutes not contradicting the quarter-point pace.
IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ above the ceiling supports demand for inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ protection.
Short breakeven inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ stays elevated.
What would change the view: IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15 confirming the pressure.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Copom minutes on Tuesday, September 22
- September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15 on Thursday
- Focus survey of September 28
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Coverage does not include the 5-business-day medians, which show the latest direction of revisions.