In brief
75%, unanimously, in the fifth straight reduction.
The committee did not signal the next step and tied the size of the cycle to new information.
The decision came on the same day the Fed raised rates in the United States.
What we know
06Verified fact · material
The Copom lowered the Selic by 0.25 percentage point, from 14% to 13.75% a year, in a unanimous decision on September 16, the fifth consecutive cut and the lowest level since March 2025.
Confirms the 0.25 point per meeting pace and the internal consensus of the committee.
Verified fact · material
The statement says the total size of the calibration cycle will be set in light of new information, aiming to ensure inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ converges to the target, without indicating the size of the next move.
Removes forward guidance and makes each meeting data dependent.
Context
In the reference scenario, the Copom projection for IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ in the first quarter of 2028 is 3.2%; the Focus expectations cited are 4.9% for 2026 and 4.3% for 2027.
The relevant horizon remains above the 3% target centre.
Sources[02]Verified fact · material
The committee listed among the risks a prolonged de-anchoring of expectations, resilient services inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ and external uncertainties, including the conflicts in the Middle East and monetary policy in advanced economies.
The risk balance justifies caution on the pace of cuts.
Context
Even after the cut, Brazil keeps the highest real interest rate in the world in the ranking compiled by CNN Brasil.
Sustains the rate differential that draws flows into local fixed income.
Sources[06]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The yield curve tends to price smaller cuts or pauses from November onward as long as the statement carries no guidance.
50 point in a single day.
Portfolio impact
03A 0.25 point cut confirmed, but no guidance on the next pace.
The market shifts to pricing meeting by meeting.
What would change the view: If the minutes reinforce caution, short tenors rise.
Lower rates reduce delinquency and stimulate credit.
Gradual effect on margins and provisions.
What would change the view: Depends on the cycle continuing into 2027.
The rate differential with the United States narrowed with the Fed hike on the same day.
The carry trade loses some appeal.
What would change the view: If the Fed hikes again in 2026, pressure on the real increases.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Copom minutes on September 22 and the wording on pace
- September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15 and services inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗
- Reaction of the yield curve and the dollar to the Copom and Fed combination
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The size of the next cut, in October or November, was not signalled
- The effect of the US rate hike on the exchange rate and expectations