In brief
The Focus keeps lowering 2026 inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ one hundredth at a time, without moving the Selic.
The read is of a market expecting the Copom to hold the rate and save cuts for after the election, with oil near US$ 100 as a new risk.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The September 8 Focus survey median for 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ fell from 5.01% to 5%, a second straight weekly cut, still above the 4.5% target ceiling, and the 2027 median rose from 4.28% to 4.29%, per Agência Brasil, InfoMoney and Exame.
It is the figure anchoring expectations before the Copom.
Verified fact
The survey was released on Tuesday because of the September 7 holiday, and the Copom meets on September 15-16, per Agência Brasil.
Places the data in the calendar.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
75%, the ex-ante real rate stays near 8%, which supports BofA's thesis of deep cuts in 2027 and explains the drop in long DIs.
The short-term risk is oil: Brent at US$ 100 may halt the run of downward revisions.
Portfolio impact
02Falling projected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ with a stable Selic widens the real rate and expectations of 2027 cuts.
Neutral for the short end, positive for the long end.
What would change the view: Changes if the Copom signals earlier cuts or if oil feeds into IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Falling inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ expectations favour fixed-rate over inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-linked bonds.
Positive for fixed-rate bonds.
What would change the view: Depends on current IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ confirming the trend.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- The Copom decision and statement on 9/16.
- August IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ and September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15.
- The next Focus on 9/14.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The Focus is a median of private forecasts, not official inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ data.