IBC-Br falls 0.2% in July in the second straight drop

In brief

2% in July, the second straight drop, led by agriculture and industry.

5%.

The data came out on Copom decision day and reinforced the slowdown argument.

Verified fact · material
The IBC-Br fell 0.2% in July from June in the seasonally adjusted series, according to the Central Bank, after a 0.6% drop in June, the second consecutive negative result.
Confirms the loss of momentum at the start of the third quarter.
Sources[01][02][04]
Verified fact · material
Agriculture fell 1.2% in the month, industry dropped 0.4%, services were flat and taxes fell 0.2%; the IBC-Br excluding agriculture fell 0.1%.
The fall is led by agriculture after the record harvest, with services holding.
Sources[01][04]
Verified fact · material
Compared with July 2025 the index rose 1.1%; in the seven month period and over 12 months the increase is 1.5%.
Annual growth remains positive but is slowing.
Sources[01][03]
Context
The indicator was released on the morning of September 16, hours before the Copom cut the Selic to 13.75%.
Reinforced the slowdown reading used by the committee.
Sources[02]

Transmission to assets

A slowing economy supports the case for further Selic cuts but weighs on retail, construction and industry.

The third quarter starts in negative territory and 2026 GDP projections tend to be revised downward.

Juros futuros (DI)positive

Weaker activity reinforces expectations of more cuts.

Short curve eases on weak data.

What would change the view: If services inflation eases as well.

rates55% confidence

Ibovespanegative

Cyclical companies lose revenue traction.

Small net effect in the short term.

What would change the view: Partly offset by lower rates.

macro40% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

Limits of the reporting