In brief
The US Senate rejected 49 to 50 the advance of the Clarity Act, which needed 60 votes.
The bill would set federal regulation of digital assets.
3% and stayed below US$ 76 thousand.
What we know
04Context
Bitcoin fell between 3.7% and 5.3% after the vote, trading below US$ 76 thousand, and ether dropped about 5%, near US$ 2,400.
Immediate price reaction to the legislative defeat.
Sources[01]Context
The paths cited after the defeat are renegotiating a less ambitious bill, regulation by federal agencies such as the SEC and state legislation in California and New York.
No alternative provides legal certainty in the short term.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Bitcoin and ether ETFs listed on B3 and BDRs of crypto exchanges reflect the drop.
The combination with the Fed rate hike the next day reduces appetite for risk assets with no cash flow backing.
Portfolio impact
01Regulatory defeat pushes the bitcoin price down.
Quotas follow the underlying asset in dollars.
What would change the view: Reversal if a substitute bill advances.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- New vote attempt or substitute bill in the Senate
- SEC actions against exchanges while there is no law
- Flows into US spot bitcoin ETFs
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Whether the bill returns to the floor before the midterm elections
- The extent of the price drop if the Fed keeps raising rates